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  • #1,421
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:05pm Jul 22, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting pipeye
Would you consider the 213.80 area to be one of significant support, considering how long it has held as resistance. And if so, would you initiate a long from there, or would you only wait for a break of 214.10.

I'm already stopped out. Obviously this could be a reversal area and I was playing a breakout trade. Not the price action I was looking for.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,422
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:23pm Jul 22, 2008 10:23pm
went ahead and closed trade at 213.69. +33- not much but beats a loss-price will probably retest highs. I don't want to long at this point because daily looks like a reversal could be coming.
  • #1,423
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:30pm Jul 22, 2008 10:30pm
Very good info Billy, thank you so much!
  • #1,424
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:40pm Jul 22, 2008 10:40pm
thanks Billy!
  • #1,425
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:47pm Jul 22, 2008 10:47pm
All of your efforts are very much appreciated, Billy. I am constantly being enlightened by this thread. Thanks a ton!

If you don't mind me asking, how many hours do you log per day and when?
  • #1,426
  • Jul 23, 2008 12:11am Jul 23, 2008 12:11am
I really enjoy reading quality well thought out posts from an obviously dedicated, serious, professional trader. Thank you kindly Billy.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,427
  • Jul 23, 2008 12:24am Jul 23, 2008 12:24am
Some of the best info on the web right here compliments of BRV!
Keep up the good work.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,428
  • Jul 23, 2008 12:28am Jul 23, 2008 12:28am
thanks for your post,its insightful and a great resource material,you are indeed a great man,when is your birthday so that we can start preparing to give you the best birthday party ever,just to say thank you.what do you guys think
  • #1,429
  • Jul 23, 2008 12:43am Jul 23, 2008 12:43am
Quoting pastork
thanks for your post,its insightful and a great resource material,you are indeed a great man,when is your birthday so that we can start preparing to give you the best birthday party ever,just to say thank you.what do you guys think

I just started on this thread and it has been the most informative material I have ever found beyond the basics. Great job, Billy. What an eye opener. I am already identifying trades that when wrong based on the common technicals that would have been avoided (or in the proper direction) if I had this information on hand. This info is out of the ball park. Thank you.

General question: Do you think it would be of any use (to anyone other than me) to post the current support resistance target areas for the pairs you trade? My thinking is that if we're all watching the same target, there would be a collective focus on direction. I know about the EUDUSD big 1.6000 but I'm looking at the USDCHF 1.0345 and USDJPY 107.60 as resistance but I have no confidence in my assessment since it's a new world for me. Perhaps a summary on your lead thread might do the trick.

As for your birthday, a collective toast is definitely the right idea. Thanks agian.

Jim
  • #1,430
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:10am Jul 23, 2008 1:10am
For future reference, does this method of S/r levels work when there are large news releases such as NFP or the USD report being given later today?
  • #1,431
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:11am Jul 23, 2008 1:11am
Quoting TexasforEX
Congrats dude I've been waiting for this one all week. I'm playing it a bit different. I'm going to hold my shorts from 7720 and add more on any ST retracement. I'm going for the fences on this one, looking for 7350 area.

Closed out a couple lots here at 7540. I can finally fill my gas tank...
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,432
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:18am Jul 23, 2008 1:18am
As BRV was referring to..
I see a potential weekly scenario with continued USD strength until the beige book tomorrow or possibly unemployment and home sales on Thurs. So far this week everything has been moving in relation to the dollar and is why US data will probably be the next main mover. I do see the weekly average ranges for most pairs vs the dollar getting quite healthy and it is only Tuesday evening. Keep in mind these are only averages and the occurence of a massive weekly candle is only a couple of standard deviations out on the bell curve. But, it will open the possibility of a weekly top for the USD.

The pound, loonie, kiwi and euro are all at precipitous areas Vs the yen as well. I'm keeping a close watch on these pairs. They will have their moments very soon.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,433
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:21am Jul 23, 2008 1:21am
wat do you think of eur/usd 1.5774 do you think this previous support level has turned to a resistance
  • #1,434
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:23am Jul 23, 2008 1:23am
Quoting TexasforEX
As BRV was referring to..
I see a potential weekly scenario with continued USD strength until the beige book tomorrow or possibly unemployment and home sales on Thurs. So far this week everything has been moving in relation to the dollar and is why US data will probably be the next main mover.

The pound, loonie, kiwi and euro are all at precipitous areas Vs the yen as well. I'm keeping a close watch on these pairs. They will have their moments very soon.
due to the market circumstances, you would probably not take the a/u no brainer then correct?
  • #1,435
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:24am Jul 23, 2008 1:24am
Quoting rogerdoger
due to the market circumstances, you would probably not take the a/u no brainer then correct?
Not yet. 7645/60 is very important, it could possibly be a reversal point but not yet mate. Patience.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,436
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:47am Jul 23, 2008 1:47am
I would highly recommend buying the beast if not done already. I loaded up between 213.9 and 214.3. Any pullback to 214.2 area is a gift IMO.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,437
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:27am Jul 23, 2008 2:27am
Becareful as we have a push into heavy resistance on the 4hr CHF chart. Possible turn to downside between 1.0332 ans 1.0352.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf 4hr t14.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #1,438
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:53am Jul 23, 2008 2:53am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long AUD/USD 0.9668 - 0.9663

This is the most significant recent high before this last AUD uptrend, also coinciding with a .50 retracement. Should be a good reaction when price touches it.
Hi.... I am at the moment cca 20 pips profit thanks to Billy and this old post.
I believe, though, that price will retrace and test another heavily fortified resistance around 0.9640 line. There I will go with larger TP (if price action will allows this, of course)

I am taking profits almost daily from Billy posts. Although this fact alone is something you rarely can find anywhere even of you are willing to pay for it,what I find even more valuable is his exceptional "know how", freely available in this thread.
  • #1,439
  • Jul 23, 2008 3:13am Jul 23, 2008 3:13am
Quoting TexasforEX
I would highly recommend buying the beast if not done already. I loaded up between 213.9 and 214.3. Any pullback to 214.2 area is a gift IMO.
That's pretty much where i got stopped out today, Should of manged that one better, down to 21356 at one point . I'll leave this one alone for now. There have been a nice couple of bounces on cable today straight off support and a 50 fib level,good for intra day. So much going on when you trade this stuff i'ts sometimes hard to keep up with it all.
  • #1,440
  • Jul 23, 2008 3:15am Jul 23, 2008 3:15am
Quoting rogerdoger
For future reference, does this method of S/r levels work when there are large news releases such as NFP or the USD report being given later today?
The safe answer is of course to just get out of the way of big news reports. Thin markets are the biggest nemesis to S&R Levels. I have seen levels hold through big reports such as NFP but it is far from a no brainer.

A couple weeks back I was watching the 1.5830 level on the EURUSD just ahead of the US Trade Balance report. There were obviously alot of orders there as price struggled there for several minutes. The Trade Balance was actually favorable to the US but about 45 minutes before NY open ALOT of negative US news surrounding Freddie Mac and Fannie May hit the market. The USDJPY dropped almost immediately. I pulled my sells on the Euro at 1.5830 and 1.5850. The Euro went to 15940 area by NY close and pushed even higher on Sunday into the 70's before retracing all the gains. (Side note here. When you see a big end of wek run up on a major pair, watch on Sunday for a low risk fade. Many times you get just as many pips without the risk of blowing up your account)

Incorporating news into your S&R trading is an additional level of skill worth pursuing. However, without the research I would never march boldly forward expecting these levels to have the same dependability.

Fxorce brought my attention to a news squawk service that is actually free. 30 second delay (which is fine) It's called Ransquawk, I believe.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
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