No Brainer Trades

Both trades pretty basic stuff hitting daily fib level and turning around. The one hour candles tell the story. These are the best trades enabling a very tight stop loss and large profit potential.

Had the same scenario on the Euro and Pound this morning.

Anyone see any short action on CAD/JPY?

1.0250-260 imo would be good position to reenter long position after retracement in usdchf and put s/l at breakeven after 20 pips.

I looked into some of the statements posted in that article earlier, as I couldnt really come up with too much color on the subject at the time, but here's the bottom line, as it was stated in the article:

Plosser (speaking today) has a notoriously hawkish outlook as he sees that fending off inflation as the number one priority of a strong and stable economy - he has the reputation of being the biggest advocate of raising rates of all the members of the Fed

...but on the other hand,

Bernanke made it pretty clear in his testimony last week that until the stock market stabilizes, we are unlikely to see any rate hikes in the very immediate future. Plosser essentially nullified these comments today by saying that hikes are going to need to occur before the market takes a positive course.

What will actually happen is another story, but in the meantime we find ourselves caught up in a "buy the rumor sell the fact" market today, where the rumor was bought heavily, but should stabilize throughout the end of the week. The stock market, commodities, etc. should be back on the radar by tomorrow pending any other news regard this.

The reason I'm posting this is because nothing runs the market harder and faster than comments like this taken very seriously, especially when it comes to interest rates.

Interest rate talk is the quickest way to get 200 pips out of the daily range and run the market faster than you can blink - I'll admit that I underestimated the news today as I didnt see his comments holding all that much weight in comparison to Bernanke's last week.

But here we go and I'm actually happy that eur got a push down today because new highs make it harder to trade.

And the bottom line (if you read anything here read this):

Someone asked me a while back about taking these trades in regards to longer-term fundamental outlooks, and I responded by saying that I don't really care. And today you have a perfect example: yesterday, all across the news and from every possible angle all I heard was dollar short posted everywhere, and today it gained about 200 pips on some basic comments made during a conference that usually goes unnoticed. And in the background you usually have economists fighting over who was right and who was wrong like hungry dogs playing tug of war with a piece of meat. The fact is we're only going for 20 to a couple hundred pips here, and market conditions can change on the dime each and every day. Its good to stay on top of recent events, but you need to block out the noise sometimes to make the most out of what you do. Taking news articles and other comments too seriously can paralyze you from taking profitable trades. The levels we use here clearly work, and its good to keep a systematic pattern in the way you trade if you're in and out every day. For longer term investors this is obviously not the case, but for us, it suits us very well. I see a lot of people coming into this thread saying "how did they do that??" and the answer is pretty simple: no noise, no bull, just basic technical levels that everyone else uses traded systematically and consistently. Just watch out for those interest rate comments and ride that train until its over, you'll be glad you did.

Last week we have seen oil making double high and falling hard after that.
Oil and eur/usd charts are most of the time in a good correlation. After that big move down in oil prices i was expecting usd going higher which didnt happen week before. Without any good news for euro currency i was expecting a shift in usd sentiment. Im still a newbie but this is the most logical way for me to understand today drop in eurusd.

Hi,

Well the trade on yesterday's Aud/usd got stopped out, not sure how much that previous support will now act as resistance but I'm going to keep an eye on it. At the moment the Gbp/Jpy looks likes its' being squeezed into a tight space I have an order to go short @ 213.80

There will be a huge yen cross move this week. Guaranteed.

Unfortunately I can't say which direction.....yet.

I am bias to the downside though.

Here is another yen cross that is forming a beautiful pattern.

Although 214 has proved to be formidable resistance, technically pennants generally breakout in the direction of the move before the consolidation. If it does break resistance, it should have legs until the 217.30 area.

how does this look for the pound yen?

damn bro ....right to the pip. I`m in too partial take profits or home-run? I think I wanna go for the second one.

The .9880 area looks to elicit a good bounce.

Although fundamentally I really disagree with this trade I have to go long gbp/jpy.
long 214.10 = No brainer buy. won't think about it just do it.

How about long AUD/USD 0.9675 to 0.9700?

Fundamentally, I disagree with it as well. Although, in light of the 2300 point sell off in equities over the past few weeks, we could be in for a bit more of a correction to the upside before the equity markets fall off the cliff. If this is the case, then possibly the 221 area comes into play, as it would be a test of the big Head and Shoulders neckline along with the 50% retracement of the entire move down.

short gbp/jpy at 214.02

That would be nice. I miss just holding a long yen cross while collecting interest and pips.

stop set at 214.91--target 213.35---correction--stop at 214.01which is +1

Would you consider the 213.80 area to be one of significant support, considering how long it has held as resistance. And if so, would you initiate a long from there, or would you only wait for a break of 214.10.

Hi guys, I wrote the following to help clear up some questions I've been getting while explaining some of the basic motions I do for the day, and concepts that are now well-seeded in the back of my brain. The list below might appear a little mixed, but I hope you can find some value here:

Daily Planning

My day always begins with me opening my charts and doing a basic analysis of possible market turning points. My most highly probable levels get a limit order placed on them, which I am quick to adjust or cancel if market conditions seem overheated or otherwise fundamentally wrong. For all levels in the range of the current price which could possibly be hit in the next day, I mark them up and set price alerts about 15 pips away from each so I know when its time to trade. I mark up levels higher and lower than the current price, so I’m ready regardless of what direction the market decides to head.
Once I get my ideas drawn out on the charts I will usually write them down, outlining the main trades I intend to take during the session. When I’m done, it looks something like this:

sell eur 1.5948, watch for break on diag 4hr TL to the downside, want to buy again big at 1.5670 with other possible buys at 1.5761 and 1.5727, gbp buy still same at convergence of diag tl and horizontal support - looking at action looks like its going to be 1.9838 or higher, 2.000-2.0010 could work as a sell again, AUD sell mark at 0.9775 area, buy never got hit and still intact at 0.9668, buy again on a break down to 0.9639 though will be hard for price to move that far down there, sell EJ same at 170.00, buy at 168.62, UJ buy at 105.90 and looking for a break of the downward sloping diagonal trendline at that point back up to the highs at 108.62 best case scenario (which is a good target for several diff reasons not just because the high), otherwise need to reevealuate sells - intraday 107.41, 107.65, 108.00 are the best candidates, 107.65 best payout at this point, nzd is a buy for me at 0.7538 and .7400, sell it at 0.7681, chf buying pressure at 1.0142 -35, selling at 1.0276, with a sell for dummies at 1.0311-21

By doing this exercise, I’m well-prepared for the upcoming session and any variables that might present themselves. I know what I’m going to do next, and its hard to miss a trade by following this plan.

Doing this eliminates the possibility of me “shooting from the hip” and taking trades that simply shouldn’t be taken. Every day something goes according to plan, and it’s a result of simply looking ahead and planning a wide range of high probability moves for the next day.

Lack of planning will leave you unorganized and scrambling throughout the session to find the next best thing, when you have already missed three of them earlier in the day. If you plan out a range of possibilities before the session, however, you’re sending in a soldier to do a soldier’s job as opposed to a boy scout.

The Board of Disaster

Maybe a little melodramatic in its name, but I have a board next to me that outlines my worst moments and trades gone wrong. If I make a error that leads me into a realm of disaster, I print out the chart, mark it up, and make sure it never happens again. Experience is key in trading, and through every mistake is value in the end. I don’t like making an error more than once. “Three strikes and you’re out” only works in baseball. Three strikes in trading can cost you dearly. Do it once, fine, but don’t ever do it again.

Boredom

Taking trades when the market is ready is the correct thing to do. Taking trades when YOU are ready is the wrong thing to do. Wait, wait, wait for the setup and execute, no sooner, no later. Overtrading is the killer of all killers. When I’m bored, I’ll usually just plan the next run of potential trades or work on some side projects. If I have a session where I don’t make any trades, I walk away, and brush myself off, because I realize one important thing: it’s better to take a trade and make money than risk losing thousands because you were looking for something to do.

Anxiety

Anxiety is bad for a number of different scenarios:

-failing to take a profitable trade
-closing a trade too early instead of letting profits run
-closing a trade too early because you are experiencing some drawdown
....among others

Anxiety gets smoothed with experience and mostly nothing else. If you are inexperienced and have no anxiety I would be worried as well. It is natural to be a little fearful in the beginning but overall time heals the psychological aspects that prevent you from becoming more profitable. But even for experienced traders, anxiety can kick in hard if he or she posts a big loss or some other dramatic event takes place. Picking yourself up and moving onto the next set of trades is the only thing that will keep you moving forward.

Reality versus Desired Outcome

It’s a rather over exhausted subject but nonetheless worth stressing day in and day out. Making the most of your rational thinking is perhaps one of the greatest necessities to making the most of your trading account. There is a fine line between realizing when you are wrong and when you are right while keeping the book open in terms of what could happen next. You need to be more than objective in your approach, while trading defensively in order to maintain profits. Using a fixed risk/reward ratio and proven trading system eliminates most of this, as long as it is followed and rules are obeyed 100%.