Daily GBP/JPY analysis

thanks I will

now +18 pips in gpbjpy!!

Looks like gbp/jpy wants to catch up with it's euro sibling, eur/jpy.

I am in long target 60 pips.

It can make you or break you, like I said. It's making me. Here's why:

1. You must conduct technical and fundamental analysis, if you're purely technical, leave this alone or lose your ass.

2. Realize that, right now, executing shorts on this pair is an invitation to disaster.

3. Wait for it to long up, trail it with wide stops, and watch the news releases.

4. BOE or BOJ can unilaterally stop this methodology at any time.

This is a high risk, but high yield situation. It may blow up tomorrow, I don't know. I just decided I would turn y'all on to it since you've all been good to me, with a few exceptions. Trade it, live it, love it. It'll make you rich or eat your lunch!

Thanks for all the responses, BTW, folks, it's got me convinced, now, that this really is a community...

Duke

It's going long right now on Tokyo, but I don't know yet, anyone got better techs than me? It looks a little funny, I might not take this...

We've got UK balance of trade at 0930GMT, that's the only intervening news on my radar...

Might be okay to long if it gets over 237.70, but I think I'll take a break for now...

170 pips plus 90 on GBP/USD is a good week to me.

What I like so far about your thread is your attitude. I have seen some threads where the originator was all powerful, all knowing, and all in all.
Their opinion was all there was to know on the subject, with little if any room for differences.
You are not saying, "Follow me, I am the grand pumba of this pair"
I appreciate your personal experience/expertise, and that of the others that have volunteered their views.
Thank you,
Just1pip.
P.S. Not sure what a "Pumba" is but you don't seem to be one, at least not a "Grand" one.

It's the "Grand Pooba", from the Honeymooners, Jackie Gleason, etc. Oh shit, I gave away my age!

Anyway, I wouldn't go long until next week because I just took a look at it and you will probably get whipsawed to death. I say probably because I don't run the market, I just figure out market probabilities...

Oh shit, I just remembered, "Grand Pooba" is from "Happy Days"! I think I smoked too much dope back then...

Thought I would post my results from GBP/JPY today 2/8
Short at 238.19 closed trade with +63
Short at 237.86 closed trade with +31
Short at 237.61 closed trade with +47

I'm still short looking for the 234.00 area.

Yeah, you can scalp shorts off it but the real bread & butter is in the longs. You'd better be sure when you short, too. BOE would have been a good short this morning, but when it's all said and done this thing is long. I'll let you get the short money while I'm out. Them 20 pips here and 15 pips there are okay, but I've been grabbing 150 pips at a pick just as fast on the longs. The shorts are low-probability, at least for a large move...

duke I don't want to change the direction of this thread or anything, but do you trade gbp/chf? I dislike the large spread, but if it breaks out of this bear channel there could be some serious pips on offer.

i agree in total with you duke...do you buy now??what is your stop and target?

Quoting dukeofdents

Disliked

Oh shit, I just remembered, "Grand Pooba" is from "Happy Days"! I think I smoked too much dope back then...

Ignored

Are you saying that it cost a "Grand" to be the "pooba" on your "happy" "honeymoon" back in the "days" when you smoked too much dope?

I think I just "Jacked" it all up.

Maybe the dope is catching up. LOL


No Blowing Smoke Here!

N2FX

The level of 237.70 seems like it's just about to try another test.....

One of these days Alice....to the moon.

Don't look to me for buy/sell decisions, folks, I do my own thing. My point was, if your own techs tell you to long it, then I guess you should. My techs say sit tight, plus I have no market moving news the rest of the week. BOE was basically the end of my week on this one. It may carry up, but I need to see decisive movement to enter a long. We have a Japanese holiday on Monday, so if they're out of the market we might see a continuation of tomorrow's direction, which looks like it will probably be long. I, myself, am going to wait. Why make 170 pips and then turn around and spend it all on spread?

Also, CIORIMAU--, if that is your real name, I never make a target entry/exit on anything. I watch the market and do what it tells me.

Also, Pipkingdom, 237.70 is the chop zone right now. I'm looking for a decisive break of that, like 35 to 40 pips...

The way this bastard moves, then again, maybe like 70 pips. There's no reason to even screw with it right now until London opens...

I am not an expert so don't take this with too much credit. I see the GBP/USD @ 19250 according to my TA system and the fundamentals involved. Of course nothing is certain and things may turn out differently but the drop is 250 pip, which is enough to propel the GBP/JPY down a bit.

I have but one idea about the movements of the USD/JPY. It seems to want to complete one more wave up before a correction. I doubt it'll be enough to propel the GBP/JPY up against the drop on the GBP/USD.

With those two factors I am suggesting a drop in the pair, I believe its consolidating and the longs are nice and scalpable but I don't necessarily favor a follow through like 3 weeks ago.

Again I can't state enough my opinion is merely another point of view.

This is good. You refrain from giving signals, yet you are informing us of some of the characteristics you have observed in this pair.
Keep it up, that is what is needed.
I do not understand those that ask, "When should I buy...When should I sell"
What if we all just waited for your calls and then you disappeared? We would not be traders...just followers. Not for me.
I don't believe inquiring into strategies or methods is unreasonable, as we can all learn from each other.
A great point you mentioned was that technicals alone on this currency is disasterous, as I found out.
Stan

Donadoney,

Let it go south. It will go south a little. Then it will long up again. Start using combinative analysis instead of being purely technical. People like technical analysis because it is completely objective, ergo, if MA#1 crosses MA#2 go long, etc. People are afraid of the fundamental because it requires them to embrace an opinion. Now we encounter psychological issues, i.e., "what if I'm wrong?!?".

You will be right when you become as confident with your fundamentals as you are with your techs. Techs are easy. There are objective criteria. If you're wrong, it was the market's fault, not yours.

I trade GBP/JPY solely because the UK interest rate is 5.25% and the Japanese rate is 0.25%. I use technical analysis to find long trades and hold them until they peter out. That's all. If the U.S. interest rate was 0.5% and the Australian rate was 7%, I would do the same thing on AUD/USD. This is where purely technical people fail. They do not apply technical analysis to the right market at the right time, because they don't realize the underlying fundamental situation, but simply do it across the board on the assumption that it will always work...