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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #101
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:19pm Feb 8, 2007 6:19pm
I'm taking long position at 237.00 purely based on my own analysis on FA..
  • #102
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:32pm Feb 8, 2007 6:32pm
i saw a suport in 236.91 and i take long in 237.18...
Sorry about my english...
  • #103
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:43pm Feb 8, 2007 6:43pm
yes I did go long and set my target at 238.75 it just hit the mark before it went down. On the flip side with gbpusd I went short 9664 after it retraced set my stop loss at 9701 thinking it had already done all the retracement then it retraced to 9702 knocked me out and proceeded down 160 pips. I was not around my computer when this happen so was unable to recover it. Learning more and more with the gbpusd a 35 to 45 stop loss is not enough.

5031968GBP/JPY12/7/07 9:33 PM (238.15 Entry) Mktfx3m185749001 2/8/07 1:54 AM(238.75 Exit)quote=tathlynq;210797]well, it looks like it broke your upward line for a LONG position. Did you get in?[/quote]
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  • #104
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:45pm Feb 8, 2007 6:45pm
Well, I was astute enough, Mr. Trend, to run a rolling stop and wake up at 0530 CST to watch the BOE rate announcement, and the market reaction, which one must do when trading some crazy ass pair like this. When BOE held tight I was out at around 238.30, I had several trades going. The aggregate worked out to like a 170 pip+/- move, now I'm just going to wait until it's safe to go long again. I'm only taking longs on this, so it might be a little bit. I think with an unchanged rate situation the carry trade might start up again, with bankers starting to think it's a good price for a ride. That's why it stalled where it's at right now. We need to wait for an up move, though, and at which price and what time that will be, I don't know. Watch the price action...

Duke
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #105
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:46pm Feb 8, 2007 6:46pm
Aren't you guys getting killed on the rolls with your shorts? I would never short the gbp/jpy except if I was certain to get out before the end of the day. Too costly.
  • #106
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:47pm Feb 8, 2007 6:47pm
This pair is quite different than other pairs I have traded.
Using the indicators and time frames and parameters I have been accustomed to, it is really eating my lunch!
I need to re-evaluate.
Any words of wisdom?
Stan
  • #107
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:51pm Feb 8, 2007 6:51pm
Looking to play a break
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  • #108
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:57pm Feb 8, 2007 6:57pm
Another thing I've learned, to all of y'all that have been good enough to support this young thread, is that time is more important than price on this pair. It's highly reactive to news, it can make you silly money, but it can break you just as quick if you don't watch carefully. How did the long drop off because of BOE when the rate was unchanged? Because there were some people positioned for a hike, and they all blew out when the announcement came out. Those with serious longs are still long, I'm not because I'm totally not serious!

I'll wait until I get an indication that it's fixing to long up again, technically, then go long for major pips. When you figure out how to hit this pair, right now, you can get 150 to 200 pips fast! The UK/Japan interest rate differential is the driving factor behind this, if you look at AUD/JPY or NZD/JPY you could do it the same way and make money, too. What we're doing here is waiting until the carry stalls and getting in at a low point, then riding it up until it stalls again. That's the fundamental basis. I would only take longs on any JPY pair right now. I'm doing GBP/JPY because it's volatile as hell and I've learned the nuances of charting it.

Right now, make no projections and no trades. Just stay out until there's some JPY or GBP news, or you see any kind of technical indication to go long. Everyone's techs are different, so that's up to you. Long only, wait for the stall and drop to get out, then wait for a long again. This won't work forever, but it's working right now...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #109
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:58pm Feb 8, 2007 6:58pm
The Weekly Average Range (WAR) for gbpusd is 334 so far it has traded in a 351 pip range.
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  • #110
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:58pm Feb 8, 2007 6:58pm
look up aud/jpy and usdj/jpy.this two pars are bull....so i long gpbjpy...anybody in this forum trade aud/jpy???
Sorry about my english...
  • #111
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:08pm Feb 8, 2007 7:08pm
I'm not screwing with any other JPY pairs on this current carry because GBP/JPY seems to get a lot of bumps in the road and that's what I'm exploiting here. It will run up to even 200 pips up fast, then drop like a rock. Watch how it's behaving of late. The trick is to long it when you should, however you figure that out, then wait, and get out before it drops like a rock. Easier said than done, but entirely possible. Use technical analysis for entry/exit, and use the news to figure out when to eyeball the techs...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #112
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:09pm Feb 8, 2007 7:09pm
I am just starting to look at it. I read that they audjpy could start to be weak because they could be entering a draught there worse in a number of years therefore hurting the economy. Have not followed up on the info much but I will be starting to look at it more.
Quoting CIORIMAU--
look up aud/jpy and usdj/jpy.this two pars are bull....so i long gpbjpy...anybody in this forum trade aud/jpy???
  • #113
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:16pm Feb 8, 2007 7:16pm
Australia has apparently quit exporting coal which will hurt AUD against JPY longer term. I would stick with GBP/JPY to run the current rate differential, and while the U.S. is at 5.25 as well, USD/JPY yields a lot less and it's kind of hard to read. USD/JPY experiences BOJ interventions on occasion as well.

The very high yielders like NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY also will not experience as many negative shots, they'll just keep steady on the long because of major capital outflow. There's a lot of indecision on this when people can go to AUD and get an extra 1% for nothing, especially when there's so much internal indecision in BOE. I think when the minutes come out from this latest meeting and we get a vote number on the rate decision it will affect this pair violently if it deviates from consensus or not...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #114
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:18pm Feb 8, 2007 7:18pm
it is important to put a fix topic about this pair aud/jpy.it is perfect in bull.
Sorry about my english...
  • #115
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:19pm Feb 8, 2007 7:19pm
when do the minutes come out
Quoting dukeofdents
Australia has apparently quit exporting coal which will hurt AUD against JPY longer term. I would stick with GBP/JPY to run the current rate differential, and while the U.S. is at 5.25 as well, USD/JPY yields a lot less and it's kind of hard to read. USD/JPY experiences BOJ interventions on occasion as well.

The very high yielders like NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY also will not experience as many negative shots, they'll just keep steady on the long because of major capital outflow. There's a lot of indecision on this when people can go to AUD and get an extra 1% for nothing, especially when there's so much internal indecision in BOE. I think when the minutes come out from this latest meeting and we get a vote number on the rate decision it will affect this pair violently if it deviates from consensus or not...
  • #116
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:19pm Feb 8, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting dukeofdents
Another thing I've learned, to all of y'all that have been good enough to support this young thread, is that time is more important than price on this pair. It's highly reactive to news, it can make you silly money, but it can break you just as quick if you don't watch carefully. How did the long drop off because of BOE when the rate was unchanged? Because there were some people positioned for a hike, and they all blew out when the announcement came out. Those with serious longs are still long, I'm not because I'm totally not serious!

I'll wait until I get an indication that it's fixing to long up again, technically, then go long for major pips. When you figure out how to hit this pair, right now, you can get 150 to 200 pips fast! The UK/Japan interest rate differential is the driving factor behind this, if you look at AUD/JPY or NZD/JPY you could do it the same way and make money, too. What we're doing here is waiting until the carry stalls and getting in at a low point, then riding it up until it stalls again. That's the fundamental basis. I would only take longs on any JPY pair right now. I'm doing GBP/JPY because it's volatile as hell and I've learned the nuances of charting it.

Right now, make no projections and no trades. Just stay out until there's some JPY or GBP news, or you see any kind of technical indication to go long. Everyone's techs are different, so that's up to you. Long only, wait for the stall and drop to get out, then wait for a long again. This won't work forever, but it's working right now...
Thank you.
Stan
  • #117
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:26pm Feb 8, 2007 7:26pm
Don't short this at all right now. It's in a hard carry. Wait for the stalls, get in the long reaction, then dump it before it stalls again. It's all timing, maybe demo it a little until you get a feel for it, but anyone shorting it will get killed!

It falls off about 3 or 4 times as fast as it builds longs, if you can't watch it like a hawk on the longs then trail it up. Sometimes it will lose a 200 pip gain that you built over days in an hour, or a few minutes. This one isn't for the faint of heart, but do some study and some watching and it's the best one out there. Much like a coke-fiend cabaret dancer, it's so good because it's so dangerous...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #118
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:27pm Feb 8, 2007 7:27pm
go go go gpb hahahahahahahahha
Sorry about my english...
  • #119
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:28pm Feb 8, 2007 7:28pm
Goodthings,

I'm not your personal economic calendar. Go read one...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #120
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:30pm Feb 8, 2007 7:30pm
I have been playing it safe. Play the break and target 60 pips. Not doing to much fancy beyond that. Just been watching the currency for a few months and see how it moves. Like Duke says it moves so fast. I have hit 3 out of 3 this week. Amost seems like you are scalping. I will say this one time a few months ago I entered a trade not checking the news and bam with in seconds after I entered the trade it dropped 100 pips. I was on the wrong end of that. It is a mover.
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