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  • #1,381
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:22am Jul 22, 2008 10:22am
Quoting pastork
looks like eur/usd is heading for 1.5800, i hope every one is watching, also usd/jpy 107.35pls brv bo brokers target stop loss, if so what do you advice on mental stop loss espesially wen you are watching the market, this is bcos i was short on eur/usd from last night and immediately i got stopped out,the pair has done 120pips, iam so so so so so angry,pls advice
Devastation, massacre, armageddon - Not worth the risk - too wild for my blood.
  • #1,382
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:35am Jul 22, 2008 10:35am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Devastation, massacre, armageddon - Not worth the risk - too wild for my blood.
On days like this generally dont look for reversals until 200, 225, 250 pip daily range mark has been hit. Thats usually when you get it. We're still a little ways away.
  • #1,383
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:42am Jul 22, 2008 10:42am
tanx am already long on eur/usd, pls i am stillexpecting your reply to the other questiontanx
  • #1,384
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:50am Jul 22, 2008 10:50am
eur/jpy finding support at 169.10 area once again A break thru that level should target about 100 pips down at at 168.10. Have already shorted twice-each time catching a few pips but nothing big. Using my powers of x ray 20/20 hindsight vision I probably should have held my shorts with stop above 170.00. looking to sell on break of 169.00 or on retest of highs
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  • #1,385
  • Jul 22, 2008 10:52am Jul 22, 2008 10:52am
Quoting TexasforEX
Good afternoon BRV,

Do you have any specific opinions on equities? Equities shrugging off another horrific bank earnings report and rallying on a $4 drop in oil? AMEX absolutely dumping. Apple barely hanging in there. I think it's just a matter of time before another downleg. Do you think S&P 1260 will be the ceiling?
Thanks mate.
Hi there - stronger dollar - less $$ on oil = stronger spx, but yeah this is hysteria and I think you're right. We didnt see a correction yesterday that makes sense in relation to the up move and didnt really get it today either. Overall looking for a downmove atleast short term, in fact was looking for a downclose today before these comments in general - I think we should still get it - mad race to close the gap this morning. A friend of mine pointed out that despite these moves spx hasnt gone incredibly far and its just a matter of time but we're talking in pretty broad strokes unfortunately.
  • #1,386
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:09am Jul 22, 2008 11:09am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
On days like this generally dont look for reversals until 200, 225, 250 pip daily range mark has been hit. Thats usually when you get it. We're still a little ways away.

Do you then think it was ill advised for me to go long at 1.5788, as there is so much support there?
  • #1,387
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:14am Jul 22, 2008 11:14am
Make sure you keep a tight stop loss of maybe 10 -20 and it could be a good trade IMO.
  • #1,388
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:16am Jul 22, 2008 11:16am
Well if that area fails, what do you think of the 1.5610-1.5635 area?
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  • #1,389
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:20am Jul 22, 2008 11:20am
Quoting pipeye
Well if that area fails, what do you think of the 1.5610-1.5635 area?
If it failed I would not take the trade. Too much potential for US bad news.
  • #1,390
  • Edited 11:39am Jul 22, 2008 11:23am | Edited 11:39am
Quoting pipeye
Do you then think it was ill advised for me to go long at 1.5788, as there is so much support there?
I dont recommend selling dollars until there is a clear max out point for the day.

It could work but its about as safe as throwing grenades at a gas station.

If you're looking for a safe sell for today only look to dump usdchf at 1.0342-52. But only if it gets that high. The higher it goes the better. The reason I say today only is because of the daily range.....that's important. 1.0352 is ideal.
  • #1,391
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:23am Jul 22, 2008 11:23am
Quoting pipeye
Well if that area fails, what do you think of the 1.5610-1.5635 area?
IIRC, BRV has a spot in that area picked out as a No Brainer.
  • #1,392
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:43am Jul 22, 2008 11:43am
oh God....yen looks so tempting to short. what levels should one watch for? I got totally confused today...wachovia and BoA's earnings=dont mean shit against falling oil.


edit: was that just a USD sucker rally or the fundamental winds just changed course....I can not agree with the second one. What say you Thread ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,393
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:48am Jul 22, 2008 11:48am
So, on days like this where the days momentum seems to be in favor of the dollar, you wait for some indicator of exhaustion before you open any trades against the dollar? Is that right?

At least it looks like it should open up some good No Brainer points when it finally stops making it's run.
  • #1,394
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:58am Jul 22, 2008 11:58am
Quoting ZenTrader
So, on days like this where the days momentum seems to be in favor of the dollar, you wait for some indicator of exhaustion before you open any trades against the dollar? Is that right?

At least it looks like it should open up some good No Brainer points when it finally stops making it's run.
Interest rate speculation is what drove the dollar today - anytime this happens you see massive buying in the market and you want to look for pairs to make a daily range of 200-225, up to 250 pips, though 200-225 is the most likely. No indicators, just a very common theme that happens. But anytime you hear anything about interest rates you want to ride the trend without question, and wait until the daily range "max out" point gets hit before reversing. CHF was 198 so far and I believe its done for the day.
  • #1,395
  • Jul 22, 2008 12:02pm Jul 22, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting djambazov84
oh God....yen looks so tempting to short. what levels should one watch for? I got totally confused today...wachovia and BoA's earnings=dont mean shit against falling oil.


edit: was that just a USD sucker rally or the fundamental winds just changed course....I can not agree with the second one. What say you Thread ?

First off, I think the market will see 106.9 at least before or shortly after NY close so you could BUY the yen (sell the usd/yen). Second, bottom and top pickers become cotton pickers. Seriously since the market is focusing on commodities and some hawkish rhetoric I wouldn't be a dollar seller yet for anything other than a quick scalp.

Also, don't confuse strong economy with strong dollar, one doesn't necessarily equal the other. I haven't checked Fed futures today but I would imagine they have greatly increased the probability for rate hikes in 2009. This $$$ strength is about commodities and rate outlooks. If equities tumble it will lessen the Fed's wiggle room to hike.

Here's a hint. When the yen crosses become the focus that's a key sign that
equities have moved to the spotlight.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,396
  • Jul 22, 2008 12:03pm Jul 22, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Interest rate speculation is what drove the dollar today - anytime this happens you see massive buying in the market and you want to look for pairs to make a daily range of 200-225, up to 250 pips, though 200-225 is the most likely. No indicators, just a very common theme that happens. But anytime you hear anything about interest rates you want to ride the trend without question, and wait until the daily range "max out" point gets hit before reversing. CHF was 198 so far and I believe its done for the day.

So the 140 pip run on usd/jpy does not even come close? I`m trying to spot a 1-2-3 reversal formation to fine tune my entry.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,397
  • Jul 22, 2008 12:14pm Jul 22, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting TexasforEX
First off, I think the market will see 106.9 at least before or shortly after NY close so you could BUY the yen (sell the usd/yen). Second, bottom and top pickers become cotton pickers. Seriously since the market is focusing on commodities and some hawkish rhetoric I wouldn't be a dollar seller yet for anything other than a quick scalp.

Also, don't confuse strong economy with strong dollar, one doesn't necessarily equal the other. I haven't checked Fed futures today but I would imagine they have greatly increased the probability for rate hikes in 2009. This $$$ strength is about commodities and rate outlooks. If equities tumble it will lessen the Fed's wiggle room to hike.

Here's a hint. When the yen crosses become the focus that's a key sign that
equities have moved to the spotlight.
Yeah all the later month contracts are up about .03 for the day. Yes, quick scalp is the name of the game until we hear more......we were talking about ej today and how it barely budged through all of this, closely keeping on the side of the SP.....looking for clues but so far holding steady. 106.90 buy is a good side to be on for the time being - agreed, agreed, agreed.
  • #1,398
  • Jul 22, 2008 4:50pm Jul 22, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting Greenhaze
Eurusd all day in 40 pip range channel. Not atractive day to trade. When i get back from work i hope to see it below that range
God damn it. My entry was missed for 3 pips @ eurusd & usdchf, it felt like a stone while i was swapping my card in a factory .
  • #1,399
  • Jul 22, 2008 5:13pm Jul 22, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting Greenhaze
God damn it. My entry was missed for 3 pips @ eurusd & usdchf, it felt like a stone while i was swapping my card in a factory .
I know the feeling...a few pips difference to activate the two trades, while I was sleeping. Sleep is for the weak

edit. btw....coming to think about it I`m suggesting a No Brainer Sell Limit @ 108.30-40 on USD/JPY.
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,400
  • Jul 22, 2008 5:45pm Jul 22, 2008 5:45pm
Quoting manistra
Scalp trade that I will enter if level is triggered
AUDUSD Short @0.9790 15 pips TP


2nd Scalp candidate:
EURCHF Long @1.6172

I am new to this thread and like it what I see. I am still going through lots of posts and examples to understand strategy to the last pip as you guys are
doing it so accurately. Thanks for such fine job.

I want to see how you (manistra) calculated 1.6172 level to go long on eur/chf. Is it 23.8 fibs retractment from the previous up move? Also is there a trendline hitting that level. How about Aud/usd short, how did you calcuate those levels. In what time frame? Do you put Pending trade for such order?

Thanks

ak
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