Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading | Page 30 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Volume for indices, tick and the exchange derived volume 4 replies

Are quotes for minor pairs real or just derived from majors? 0 replies

Oanda spread versus MB Trading spread 27 replies

HOW TO PLOT derived cross 0 replies

Derived Currency Strength Indicator from multiple pairs 0 replies

Attachments: Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading
Exit Attachments

Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #581
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:39am Jul 21, 2008 9:39am
Quoting spieler
As indicated i am still short 1 lot at 1,0232 and 1,5814 loosing 3,4K but i took 2,6k first by taking only one leg.

The loss is very small so absolutely no stress we are in a range i am waiting either a up to put more lots or a down to cut with a profit .
Nothing anormal here just market with low volatility
ok thank you
  • #582
  • Edited 11:59am Jul 21, 2008 11:27am | Edited 11:59am
Spieler said:

Quote
For exemple : i said 0,25 and then 0,50 but that is for an intraday trade.
Imagin eyou are in long at -0,25% we close at -0,40% the ea will tell you tomorrow to get in at -0,10 ( -0,50 from the first entry) but me i say NO enter at -0,25 again to secure you rtrade in case of a decorrelation becoming bad.

I think this is where I'm making mistakes. My 3 current positions are based on positive movements from the close last Tuesday, not accounting for the daily movements since then. I think I need to slow down and not jump on a trade as soon as it hits that specific percentage. Also I'm not taking each leg of the trade in a smart way just opening both sides at the same time. Still have lots to learn but thank you to Spieler and everyone else who is contributing to this thread.

Spieler,
Is there a situation where you would enter a trade when the daily movement has been less than a .25% move?
  • #583
  • Jul 21, 2008 12:49pm Jul 21, 2008 12:49pm
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Hi Spieler.
In your experience, in a 10.000 USD acount with a 50% margin call (interbankfx) how many standart Lots can I open to be secure about margin call and to optimize the profits.?
I dont know if you understand me, my english is not good
thank you for your system .
  • #584
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:59pm Jul 21, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting marcelograna
Hi Spieler.
In your experience, in a 10.000 USD acount with a 50% margin call (interbankfx) how many standart Lots can I open to be secure about margin call and to optimize the profits.?
I dont know if you understand me, my english is not good
thank you for your system .

I'm pretty sure he mentioned not opening more than 20% of your equity at series or trade. Correct me if I'm wrong.

This system is really based on MM and I know he mentioned it a few times that this is good for a well capitalized account (one with a lot of $) for those with worse English.

Be careful doing big trades with this because worse case scenario, you want to be able to have multiple bad series trades of multiple lots and still walk away alive in a sense and not blowing your account.

Make sure you can survive those "few times a year" moments that blow up in your face if it happened tomorrow so you can trade another day.

MM is key here, I'm beginning to really see that, there's a few clues of that in the EURCHF chart as well as the spread chart I posted earlier if you can see it. PS those have 99.6% daily correlation between each other, you're eliminating complete USD influence.

Sorry, I trailed off a little there, good luck.
  • #585
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:11pm Jul 21, 2008 9:11pm
Spieler,
Is there a situation where you would enter a trade when the daily movement has been less than a .25% move?

Answer could be yes but will be NO

If we ara up 1 lot at -0,25 we finished at -0,45% perhaps i will wait less than 0,25 more down the day after ( 0,20 will be enough) so you see there is a place for discretional in thi ssystem because entry points are not that important.
Ans that is one of the reason i like it , the other one is that with this system you can reduce your stress to something close to zero

  • #586
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:17pm Jul 21, 2008 9:17pm
Hi Spieler.
In your experience, in a 10.000 USD acount with a 50% margin call (interbankfx) how many standart Lots can I open to be secure about margin call and to optimize the profits.?
I dont know if you understand me, my english is not good
thank you for your system .


With 10K i would start with 20k eur/usd and 30k(31K if possible) usd/chf
after 3 rounds you will have 60K eur/usd and 90K usd/chf .

  • #587
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:22pm Jul 21, 2008 9:22pm
Position is better this morning.
Waiting can be frustrated sometimes because i was about to enter a second trade yesterday waiting 0,05% more which is nothing and this one would have been good with an exit signal at -0,25% now.

So strategy of the day is still to wait +0,25% to enter a second one or to continue to go south so that we can cash our profit.

Big profits comes from a built position with 2 or 3 lots .
With one we usually make a small profit , on that one something between 2 or 4k will be ok for me ( that is the amounty i was loosing at one moment)
BUt even with only one lot if th epace is fast i will wait more south and can generate a big profit sometimes.
A profit is a profit never forget that .
  • #588
  • Jul 21, 2008 10:05pm Jul 21, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting spieler
Position is better this morning.
Waiting can be frustrated sometimes because i was about to enter a second trade yesterday waiting 0,05% more which is nothing and this one would have been good with an exit signal at -0,25% now.
Spieler,
What do you consider a good exit signal? If the price is slowly working its way to your percentage will you close out when it is broken or hold to see how much profit you can take? Do you leg out of the trade based on the direction of the candles on each side? What would make you hold onto a position after your target has been breached?
Thanks
  • #589
  • Jul 22, 2008 12:24am Jul 22, 2008 12:24am
Quoting Richard
spieler-

Please could you clarify something. In the situation you describe above, if you were waiting for a +0.25% move and that day it only went to say +0.15% obviously you would still wait. Then the next day it also does not go +0.25% but say only +0.15% again. Would you still then wait for the next day and for a move of +0.25% IN ONE DAY or would you add togather the two smaller moves of +0.15% and say because the total movement was now +0.30% from your last entry it is time to enter again otherwise the market price may be moving too far away from your position to effectively average down? Hope I am explaining my question clearly enough.
spieler-

When you have time please could you answer my earlier question in post #529.
Just to clarify my question here is an example:
Say we are holding one short position entered at +0.25% and that day ended at +0.40%. The next day we must wait for an INTERDAY movement of +0.25% to enter next position but movement was only +0.20% so we still wait. The day after we are waiting again for an interday movement of +0.25% but movement that day is again only +0.20%. Now the original position we entered is 3 days old and on an END OF DAY basis the price has moved away from our original +0.25% entry point another +0.55% meaning we are really at +0.80%. Should we then still wait for an INTERDAY movement of +0.25% or would it now be good to enter next position on the basis that if market price moves to far away from our original entry point we will be unable to average down our original position effectively.
  • #590
  • Edited 5:23am Jul 22, 2008 5:06am | Edited 5:23am
whatever the day at +0,50% FROM THE ENTRY POINT i will put a second lot.

Yesterday not lucky i was so close to put a second shot, the trade would have been a very good one .

Now the moove is clearly down , i hope we are going to close this trade today with a nice profit.
  • #591
  • Jul 22, 2008 5:26am Jul 22, 2008 5:26am
Quoting spieler
whatever the day at +0,50% FROM THE ENTRY POINT i will put a second lot.

Yesterday not lucky i was so close to put a second shot, the trade would have been a very good one .

Now the moove is clearly down , i hope we are going to close this trade today with a nice profit.

Ok, that clears things up a little bit, thanks :-)

Now, suppose I was starting this day (today) with no positions. So if I understand the system correctly, today would be a good day to open a long position at -0.25, right?
  • #592
  • Jul 22, 2008 6:10am Jul 22, 2008 6:10am
yes 0,25 not bad but beter to check the speed in that zone before entering.


I am up 400$ instead of 1900 because i put 1,5 instead of 1,6 so am directional 100k on usd .
I am stil short waiting the beast to die
  • #593
  • Jul 22, 2008 6:23am Jul 22, 2008 6:23am
I just cut the position with a 1312$ profit which is quite small but thi sposition has been opened On friday so that is ok.
I would have taken 1,6 instead of 1,5 th eprofit would have been of 2,8K almost 0,5% quite good.

Advantage of this systeme the stress is close to zero.

The traders who had 3 lots should have made a nice profit as i told them to just wait and relax even if they entries point were not that good.
  • #594
  • Jul 22, 2008 6:26am Jul 22, 2008 6:26am
Quoting spieler
I just cut the position with a 1312$ profit which is quite small but thi sposition has been opened On friday so that is ok.
I would have taken 1,6 instead of 1,5 th eprofit would have been of 2,8K almost 0,5% quite good.

Advantage of this systeme the stress is close to zero.

The traders who had 3 lots should have made a nice profit as i told them to just wait and relax even if they entries point were not that good.

That's great, spieler! I'm learning a lot watching you trade this, please keep it up. Be assured that your effort is highly appreciated.
  • #595
  • Jul 22, 2008 6:38am Jul 22, 2008 6:38am
Quoting spieler
I just cut the position with a 1312$ profit which is quite small but thi sposition has been opened On friday so that is ok.
I would have taken 1,6 instead of 1,5 th eprofit would have been of 2,8K almost 0,5% quite good.

Advantage of this systeme the stress is close to zero.

The traders who had 3 lots should have made a nice profit as i told them to just wait and relax even if they entries point were not that good.
I would assume that you will now wait for -0.50% for the day to go long, at the moment it is -0.23%.

Is this correct spieler?
Regards
  • #596
  • Jul 22, 2008 6:42am Jul 22, 2008 6:42am
My feeling after 3 days of range is that we are in balance .
So -0,25 % possible but as i just cut a short i will wait a little bit more but not 0,50.
0,35 sounds a ggod point to start to build a position.
Remember entry point is not that important just try to find an acceptable one.
  • #597
  • Edited 8:39am Jul 22, 2008 8:05am | Edited 8:39am
I see this post at the beginning .

I studied the correlation between eur/usd and usd/chf -0,88 and if is possible a hedging or zero risk trading in the same position long/long and short/short.

The spieler method is a mixture martingale + trend eur/jpy , it's very difficult with small accounts trade with signals +-0,25% , or +-0,50% , +-1% (intraday) etc ....

The system intraday can be an error for a long term trading and you cann't average your positions ... all people know that all trend have corrections but ..... spieler can you tell me if is possible win with short positions and then eur/chf spike above 1,6250 ... to 1,6500 for example ....

I think that is better trading intermarket, intramarket or interexchange spread trading , better control trend , historical prices ...

Can you tell me if this system is profitable in feb-april 2008 with long positions in eur/usd usd/chf ..

0,01% in eur/chf is near 9,5€ with a ratio 1/1,6 eur7usd usd/chf.

¿Where is the hedging? if eur/chf down and you are long ... or you are short and eur/chf is bullish ....
  • #598
  • Jul 22, 2008 8:30am Jul 22, 2008 8:30am
This system is profitable whatever the conditions and i dont see what eur/jpy has to see with it????????

IN case of a trend which can always occurs, my position working allows me by getting in and out to amortize the loss.

NOt sure i have understood eveything in your post
  • #599
  • Jul 22, 2008 8:43am Jul 22, 2008 8:43am
Eur/chf ... sorry with confussion .

I think that traders are opening orders with the intraday system and i think that they dont look at eur/chf trend !!! .

¡¡¡ My post is simple : this strategy is clearly directional with eur/chf !!!
  • #600
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:12am Jul 22, 2008 9:12am
You are right and wrong saying that and we knows we deal with eur/chf because we are watching at it to decide to enter.

But it is by far more complicated than that , i will try to explain later , i have no time now
1 trader viewing now