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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #4,481
  • Jul 20, 2008 6:16pm Jul 20, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting Bobokus
Thats good, just keep the attitude of "you could care less what direction it goes" If this happens I will go long...If this hapens I will go short. Support and resistance levels tell you the most likely places this will happen by one or the other breaking. Now once you get your entry conditions set, make another analysis of if you enter long or short...what would it take for price to show you it has turned against your entry. Just stick to your plan and dont cut your winning trades short just because they go in profit and dont hold one that meets the conditions of your stop or exit strategy.
Id have to see something extraordinary to enter short this week on EU. It'd be only a quick scalp anyway and stop moved to BE asap. (I do that all the time anyway)


GU id only be looking long too.

EJ and GJ could be very interesting. EJ at all time high, and both at major points of resistance
  • #4,482
  • Jul 20, 2008 6:43pm Jul 20, 2008 6:43pm
Price has managed to shift back to the bearish side by closing once again on the other side of the intraday level short, even though price closed on the other side of the intraday short I wont trade it simply for time of the day and theirs no momentum. It can simply be another false break and we might go into some consolidation because of tokyo session, but I would expect a littel more of a retracement due to tokyo before considering short if anything though its stll to early for me to pull the trigger in either direction and thats why I dont have a swing fibb right now . Also Bo has tought me that if I miss the break during tokyo who cares, we will have another trading day in a couple of hours and odds are it will happen during London.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd1.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #4,483
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:59pm Jul 20, 2008 10:59pm
My opinion is Gb will go to at least 9900 and most likely our T1 of 9870. Even to around the 9840 mark. It appears to be rejecting the support turned resistence at 9950 (4hr long fib) Time will no doubt tell.
  • #4,484
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:08pm Jul 20, 2008 11:08pm
well i agree with the shemenator...... i still waiting for it to retrace a little more.... and i might go with a short
  • #4,485
  • Jul 21, 2008 1:52am Jul 21, 2008 1:52am
hopefully g/u goes straight to daily short target 1..... that would make my day..
  • #4,486
  • Jul 21, 2008 3:14am Jul 21, 2008 3:14am
EUR/USD I am currently long but aware of the major levels of reistance. I will let price tell me either to hold it or close....price action is key...
Also like the head and shoulder forming plus the fact price broke the downward channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #4,487
  • Edited 10:16am Jul 21, 2008 7:28am | Edited 10:16am
Hi Bobokus, It seems Eur/Jpy hits retracement Long, And bounced back after several times ever since last week, and again it break our intraday high today, Due to the price it getting to all high ever been. I would like to know if a possible down trend would happen any time soon ?
  • #4,488
  • Jul 21, 2008 8:14am Jul 21, 2008 8:14am
hey guys just wana ask how do you know wheathere it is time to exit a trade if it does not hit the daily targets..... all i got today was 0pips as if didnt if would have been a loss..... i could close at 20pips but i didnt.... pls teach me......
  • #4,489
  • Edited 1:14pm Jul 21, 2008 9:53am | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting xscamx
hey guys just wana ask how do you know wheathere it is time to exit a trade if it does not hit the daily targets..... all i got today was 0pips as if didnt if would have been a loss..... i could close at 20pips but i didnt.... pls teach me......
No magic way to say, but determining volatility of the market is key. One way to look at it is ADX, if ADX is over 25 pair is trending, if it`s under 20 it is ranging. It`s one way to determine market status and minimizing risk. Problem is it lag and won`t show when price will break out. Usually ranging on GBPUSD may last several days to weeks, but even then, you will have some break out here and there. By the way, standard ADX from MT4 is junk but usable , try to find WildersDMI.

You should have 2 trading method, one for trending, one for ranging. There is no one size fit all. That is what i think. One ranging method way could be trade from the 23,6 to the 76,4 but it haven`t been discuss here but i think it should be evaluated.

Here's WildersDMI programmed by Igorad.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 WildersDMI_v1.1.mq4   6 KB | 1,048 downloads
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,490
  • Jul 21, 2008 12:13pm Jul 21, 2008 12:13pm
Update on gbp/usd

Alright so what we have today is that price has revered our intraday . We are also in a range between the 4 hour pivot and retracement long...

Though we seem a littel more for the reason we have a doublebottom formed at the intraday low.....also keep in mind we have formed a head and shoulders...

Seems like the market is wating for a push fudamentally to get out of this range. Its like its low in gas..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #4,491
  • Edited 4:04pm Jul 21, 2008 3:31pm | Edited 4:04pm
I got this from someone in another thread but its main source is forexnews.com

The sterling will be heavily impacted by this week’s UK economic reports given the implications for Bank of England policy decisions over the coming months. BoE Board member David Blanchflower offered a dour assessment on the economy in an interview with the UK’s Guardian news. Blanchflower sees the UK economy heading into a recession, potentially lasting over a year, and warned that the BoE would need to “cut interest rates rapidly” in order to stave off a severe downturn. He also added that the latest employment figures from the UK marked the “tip of the iceberg”.

In the coming session, the key highlight will be the release of the Bank of England’s July meeting minutes. Consensus estimates look for an 8-1 vote to leave rates unchanged, with Blanchflower being the likely dissenter. Given the inflationary conditions in the UK – with CPI nearly double the Bank’s 2% target, the minutes may reveal greater discussion over the prospects for a rate hike, which would benefit the pound. However, if the minutes provide greater emphasis on the risks to growth, market sentiment may shift toward pricing in a higher likelihood for a BoE rate cut – prompting traders to sell the sterling.

Seems like we might be heading the other way soon...resistance might begin to hold
  • #4,492
  • Jul 21, 2008 4:10pm Jul 21, 2008 4:10pm
I added another video of my trades last night and early this morning, Looks as if I stopped a little too soon today, 2.0033 was tested. There is always tomorrow. I traded off the last chart I posted here. The video had to be split into 2 parts since it was too large of a file for 1 single video. I also put the links for these 2 on the first page of the thread.

Inserted Video
Part 1
Inserted Video
Part 2

I had to do alot of editing to get these to fit on youtube but I think most of whats left will be understandable....and dont laugh I was half asleep for some of this.
  • #4,493
  • Jul 21, 2008 4:20pm Jul 21, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting Bobokus
I added another video of my trades last night and early this morning, Looks as if I stopped a little too soon today, 2.0033 was tested. There is always tomorrow. I traded off the last chart I posted here. The video had to be split into 2 parts since it was too large of a file for 1 single video. I also put the links for these 2 on the first page of the thread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_U-MjqgOCI Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIysSrP-Hgk Part 2

I had to do alot of editing to get these to fit on youtube but I think most of whats left will be understandable....and dont laugh I was half asleep for some of this.
AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!lol
I am going to pull of a movie marathon and watch them all day lol...
  • #4,494
  • Jul 21, 2008 7:54pm Jul 21, 2008 7:54pm
Quoting Bobokus
I added another video of my trades last night and early this morning, Looks as if I stopped a little too soon today, 2.0033 was tested. There is always tomorrow. I traded off the last chart I posted here. The video had to be split into 2 parts since it was too large of a file for 1 single video. I also put the links for these 2 on the first page of the thread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_U-MjqgOCI Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIysSrP-Hgk Part 2

I had to do alot of editing to get these to fit on youtube but I think most of whats left will be understandable....and dont laugh I was half asleep for some of this.
Missing the pop corn but it give it a 5 stars! You manage those trade professionally! Me i got +35, -27, +37 again out of this but i was just lucky... and i missed sleep! I have been a zombie all day! Now waiting
for the retracement at 9986. to decide what to do.

This slow action really play'n with my nerfs.. My mind is over analysing the market for nothing. I shall remember my moto. 1% a day, builds up to 1229% a year in 260 trading day...

I`ve been looking at some other trend trading system all over the past week, none of them is as robust as the fibs system. Unless were are looking at asian pairs (gbpyen, euryen) on hourly, gbpusd on H4.

Yen pairs have suddenly stop moving too now that i looked at them... Still i managed to do 55 pips on gbpyen yesterday night. I would like to repeat again tonight if it could start moving.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,495
  • Jul 21, 2008 8:41pm Jul 21, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting GreatYves
No magic way to say, but determining volatility of the market is key. One way to look at it is ADX, if ADX is over 25 pair is trending, if it`s under 20 it is ranging. It`s one way to determine market status and minimizing risk. Problem is it lag and won`t show when price will break out. Usually ranging on GBPUSD may last several days to weeks, but even then, you will have some break out here and there. By the way, standard ADX from MT4 is junk but usable , try to find WildersDMI.

You should have 2 trading method, one for trending, one for ranging. There is no one size fit all. That is what i think. One ranging method way could be trade from the 23,6 to the 76,4 but it haven`t been discuss here but i think it should be evaluated.

Here's WildersDMI programmed by Igorad.
Attachment

hi greatyves...... thank you for giving me knowldge.....but if you dont mind could you explain how to use this indicator and i agree you about range trading between fib levels
  • #4,496
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:28pm Jul 21, 2008 9:28pm
Thanks for the videos. However if you don't mind uploading a non-edited video that doesn't have to have size limitations let me know. I don't mind donating space on a fast server.

I'm sure others would like to see a better quality video than the utube allows.

Quoting Bobokus
I added another video of my trades last night and early this morning, Looks as if I stopped a little too soon today, 2.0033 was tested. There is always tomorrow. I traded off the last chart I posted here. The video had to be split into 2 parts since it was too large of a file for 1 single video. I also put the links for these 2 on the first page of the thread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_U-MjqgOCI Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIysSrP-Hgk Part 2

I had to do alot of editing to get these to fit on youtube but I think most of whats left will be understandable....and dont laugh I was half asleep for some of this.
  • #4,497
  • Edited 10:19pm Jul 21, 2008 10:00pm | Edited 10:19pm
Here what`s missing..
Attached Image
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,498
  • Jul 21, 2008 10:16pm Jul 21, 2008 10:16pm
Quoting xscamx
hi greatyves...... thank you for giving me knowldge.....but if you dont mind could you explain how to use this indicator and i agree you about range trading between fib levels
Put 1 in UseADX field. ADX will be the ticker line. Feel free to google it to read how to trade with it. It`s a full trading system in one indicator.

Attached Image
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,499
  • Jul 21, 2008 10:40pm Jul 21, 2008 10:40pm
I am expecting a deeper retracement into our intraday levels, though keep in mind that we have a resistance pivot exactly at the same same spot our downtrendshort is located and that might be the sell orders that might make the retracement to the intraday levels.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 33 KB



You can place your sell order on the previous candles low...since that would mean that the swing held as resistance and price would whant to continue in retracement to our intraday levels. Also keep in mind their is a meeting being held for the gbp and they will discuss what they think should be done with the interest rates. They are expecting that they refer to cutting the interest rates . And this could turn a scalp into a trade...
  • #4,500
  • Jul 21, 2008 10:56pm Jul 21, 2008 10:56pm
Quoting Shermenator
I am expecting a deeper retracement into our intraday levels, though keep in mind that we have a resistance pivot exactly at the same same spot our downtrendshort is located and that might be the sell orders that might make the retracement to the intraday levels.....

Attachment


You can place your sell order on the previous candles low...since that would mean that the swing held as resistance and price would whant to continue in retracement to our intraday levels. Also keep in mind their is a meeting being held for the gbp and they will discuss what they think should be done with the interest rates. They are expecting that they refer to cutting the interest rates . And this could turn a scalp into a trade...
This speach: 4:45 GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif BOE Governor King Speaks
must be big because absolutly nothing is happening during this asian session. Technicaly, if we follow bearish channel, it`s time for short. So , you would put a limit short order at around 2.0010?
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