Is luck part of profiting/losing in FOREX?

Dear Trader,

Yesterday, with a couple of beers, I had a long long long discussion with a group of friends (and my girlfriend) about LUCK in all aspects of life (including FOREX)

They defined luck as: "A small percentage of something that can not be explained by logic"

I dont like the term "luck" I consider it as:
The conditions you created and the conditions around you were in your favor---- You had good results or you had bad results, it does not depend in something "magical", God- like...

EXAMPLES of situations :

1. If there is a Tornado and it destroys all the houses except yours, is that Good Luck? or favorable conditions? Or the tornado simply did not destroy your house.

2. You were about to CRASH your car and DIE, but didnt. Is that being lucky? or the FACT is that you just didnt crash and die and FULL STOP!?

3. If you believe in good luck then read this: If you win the LOTTERY, is that good luck? If you lose the Lottery is that Bad Luck? Or simply you are playing around with numbers and probabilities.

I think this topic is important because if you believe in LUCK your decision - making CRITERIA is based on HOPE not FACT-Analysis.

Specially for a TRADER, you can base your decision in luck, then open a postion and hope the market goes your way. Thats Gambling...

In my humble opinion, a Trader should base his/her decisions in what is really happening and if you PROFIT its equals to>> you PROFIT, if you LOSE it equals to>> you LOSE. No LUCK is INVOLVED....

What is your opinion? Do you use Luck in your trading system?, do you use Luck in you technical, fundamental, psychological analysis?

Do you feel Lucky? OPINION POLL ABOVE....
Constructive opinions for trading please...

Thank you
Dimitri

After a couple beers, you always feel lucky. That is, until you see what you've done to your equity the next day lol

"Luck is when preparation meets opportunity".

If your prepared for it, chances are you'll do alright. The real question is knowing how long it takes for you to become prepared, and I'm sorry, but there is no easy way around that dilemma. The dilemma known as experience can be a tough one until you learn to respect it.

enter stage right - tdion

I'd say that some of your trades are obviously going to be better than other's. On a trade to trade basis I suppose you could say some will be luckier than others. Perhaps a sudden unexpected news event will spike the trade you way a hundred pips. ( Oil found in the sewers of New York : ) But overall your win loss ratio will be determined by your skill. I don't count on luck to win me money

i don't feel like playing today

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23526

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ghlight=random

i spit coffee on my screen

In many hurdles of life luck exists. when it comes to life hurdles that have quick ends i.e will come and go e.g writing a one time multiple choice examination, luck can make one achieve even a greater success, but unfortunately, when it comes to unending hurdles, luck can only see one through temporarily not to now talk about forex trading, luck exists anyway, they comes in at times and makes one earn profits, but my friend , i need to tell you that the luck that exist in forex is a transient one, it will not see an individual surviving the hurdles on the long run o.

get the best individual in the world with the highest achievement based on luck, let him come into forex trading and let him bank on his luck, he will crash out before two months end.

forex trading will be an endless hurdle and success in this "endless business" is all about your "ENDLESS HARDWORK".

luck will see you through no where !

Of course all forex traders depend on a little luck sometime,but i think the main thing is adapting to the market changes,no matter how good your system migth be the market conditions vary from time to time,good record keeping can help you with this,trade like the banks.

In my opinion and the way I trade it takes skill to determine the market direction and when it's going to move that way, however luck I would say luck is a factor as to how many pips the market will provide to you but it takes skill to determine how many of them to take.....make sense lol I don't believe Profit/Loss is a factor of luck, skill determines whether your trade will be a profit or loss, luck is a factor as to how much profit.

"The harder you work, the luckier you get"

- Gary Player

yap, i agree with you

I think reliance on luck depends on the amount of effort and knowledge put in before making a trade.

The less you know the more you are hoping to be lucky.

"determine" isn't the right word for forex. your first huge loss will show you that you can't determine anything. "speculate" is better....

Sure, speculate fits better

Well according to the Bible, God created everything so he must have also created luck... and logic, evolution, dinosaur fossils, Richard Dawkins etc... All to test our faith!

A great man once said: "Well, technically, you cannot be any more than an agnostic. But I am as agnostic about God as I am about fairies and the Flying Spaghetti Monster. You cannot actually disprove the existence of God. Therefore, to be a positive atheist is not technically possible. But you can be as atheist about God as you can be atheist about Thor or Apollo. Everybody nowadays is an atheist about Thor and Apollo. Some of us just go one god further."

Greetz,

An Atheist eh, agnostic PriesT

About luck, luck doesn't really exist. Think about it, the problem is imperfect information. There are just to many variables to understand, control, analyse. We simply call the 99.99999% of information we don't understand (or can't control/analyse) LUCK. Note: some parts obviously have more influence over the actual event, I don't mean to argue that 99.99% is 'luck' based

I don't like the whole "Luck" idea you cause in one situation you may think it was luck but the other day things might change and you may think that was the worse thing eve but anyway acting independent from these all luck thing is really wiser!!!