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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #561
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:20am Jul 21, 2008 5:20am
the indicator( SpielersHedge EA_v2.6.ex4)doesnt work with me,is there any setup for it???other indicators work very good.
thnx for this good system.
  • #562
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:24am Jul 21, 2008 5:24am
Why don't you BRIEFLY describe your problem.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #563
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:28am Jul 21, 2008 5:28am
Quoting tahshoon
the indicator( SpielersHedge EA_v2.6.ex4)doesnt work with me,is there any setup for it???other indicators work very good.
thnx for this good system.
Tahshoon,

It is not an indicator... it is an EA... so it belongs in the EA directory not in the indicator directory... Try that and see...

Bruce
  • #564
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:41am Jul 21, 2008 5:41am
Quoting skyline
Hi Spieler, pls refer to the below screenshot. I started to short EURUSD/USDCHF since past 16 Jul and now I'm with 3 positions opened (6 orders active) with another one that should be opened today (I missed it early this morning due sleeping but if price hit 1% again , following your system I should put 2 shorts again), a little bit scary this situation isn't it ?

Cheers,
Skyline
I think (but I may be wrong because I am still trying to fully understand this) that the entire period of time from July 14 to the low on July 16 is a period of decorrelation during which you should be putting long trades. Then, starting from the low on July 16 it is a period of recorrelation in which you just take the profits from the previous long positions you opened. That is why you wouldn't be putting short trades at that time.

I think that this element of the system is somewhat discretionary and depends on experience, just watching the pairs together. But I hope that with spieler's guidance we will start to make sense of it too.
  • #565
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:45am Jul 21, 2008 5:45am
Quoting spieler
Skyline.

First you have to wait 1,25% now after 3 lots and not 0,75%
second the 0,25% increment is not stativcal as i explained earlier, for exemple today +0,25% is ok but that s mean more than 0,25 from your last entry.
And THIRD and VERY IMPORTANT your entry point is absolutly awfull

We were all long and you entered short not taking into account the big drop of the day before as i said several times

When you start to built a position always look if we dont come from a big decorelation , your trades are against the theory correlation/decorrelation
Hello,
i m a bit confused when reading this answer.

I took the 3. pos after EURCHF reached .75%.
I had almost the same Values as drawn by the Spieler Hedge EA.
Next would be 1.00 % or do we wait for 1.25%?

Are the entries according to the rules or have i missed somethig?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf-005.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #566
  • Edited 5:54am Jul 21, 2008 5:47am | Edited 5:54am
Just put on 3rd short position when EUR/CHF hit 1.6220. Here's my trades so far.
7/16 15:02 +.25% EUR/CHF
Sold 1 lot EUR/USD @ 1.5808
Sold 1.6 lots USD/CHF @ 1.0175
7/17 06:31 +.50% EUR/CHF
Sold 1 lot EUR/USD @ 1.5856
Sold 1.6 lots USD/CHF @ 1.0178
7/21 06:18 +1.00% EUR/CHF
Sold 1 lot EUR/USD @ 1.5888
Sold 1.6 lots USD/CHF @ 1.0206
Is anyone else on the same time table as I am? These long held short trades add to the challenge, the account is down almost $80.00 in lost roll. Its time to move in the right direction so I can start closing these trades in profit.
  • #567
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:55am Jul 21, 2008 5:55am
Quoting pipsalot
I think (but I may be wrong because I am still trying to fully understand this) that the entire period of time from July 14 to the low on July 16 is a period of decorrelation during which you should be putting long trades. Then, starting from the low on July 16 it is a period of recorrelation in which you just take the profits from the previous long positions you opened. That is why you wouldn't be putting short trades at that time.

I think that this element of the system is somewhat discretionary and depends on experience, just watching the pairs together. But I hope that with spieler's guidance we will start to make sense of it too.
I agree with you Pipsalot but you had to have a crystal ball to know before the fact that price will start to trend up from 16 Jul instead to go up a little bit then go down again all the way.
Btw my big problem in system like this is that too much is left to discretional decision , while due to my nature I'm mostly oriented to automatize my trading systems using well defined and repetitive rules, this is what makes me confused in this thread However I see some potential in this system and following Spieler explanations I hope to grasp all the concepts

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #568
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:03am Jul 21, 2008 6:03am
Quoting mackus
Just put on 3rd short position when EUR/CHF hit 1.6220. Here's my trades so far.
7/16 15:02 +.25% EUR/CHF
Sold 1 lot EUR/USD @ 1.5808
Sold 1.6 lots USD/CHF @ 1.0175
7/17 06:31 +.50% EUR/CHF
Sold 1 lot EUR/USD @ 1.5856
Sold 1.6 lots USD/CHF @ 1.0178
7/21 06:18 +1.00% EUR/CHF
Sold 1 lot EUR/USD @ 1.5888
Sold 1.6 lots USD/CHF @ 1.0206
Is anyone else on the same time table as I am? These long held short trades add to the challenge, the account is down almost $80.00 in lost roll. Its time to move in the right direction so I can start closing these trades in profit.
Mackus , I'm in a similar situation :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=556

Here's my actual positions :
+0.25% Correlation
16/7 - Sold EURUSD @ 1.5835
16/7 - Sold USDCHF @ 1.0164

+0.50% Correlation
17/7 - Sold EURUSD @ 1.5855
17/7 - Sold USDCHF @ 1.0178

+0.75% Correlation
17/7 - Sold EURUSD @ 1.5827
17/7 - Sold USDCHF @ 1.0232

Only difference is that you opened at 1% on 18 Jul while I opened position at 0.75% on 17 Jul

Skyline
  • #569
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:04am Jul 21, 2008 6:04am
i know nothing about this ea kindly made by a member following what i am saying.
In my opinion ea is only there to help not to trade because rules are not fixed.
For exemple : i said 0,25 and then 0,50 but that is for an intraday trade.
Imagin eyou are in long at -0,25% we close at -0,40% the ea will tell you tomorrow to get in at -0,10 ( -0,50 from the first entry) but me i say NO enter at -0,25 again to secure you rtrade in case of a decorrelation becoming bad.

MM is everything in this system and the ea is not good at that i am sure.

Afetr 3 lots i always said to wait 0,50 for intraday trade and for ONyou have to do the same taking into account what i said for the exemple so could be 1,35 for exemple.

Dont forget that BIG idea is correlation/decorrelation but you need space to work inside that ;if not you are dead and my MM ( i havent yet say everything on it) helps a lot
  • #570
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:07am Jul 21, 2008 6:07am
if you understand the concept is about recorrelation after decorrelation how come could you enter short position on 15 th??????????

And this has nothing to do with discretional but only knowing how to read a simple graph
And dont forget than 13/14 th were exceptional.
Today is like friday a big borring day that happens sometimes.
Good that we have such things at the begining so you see how to react and so far how to react is to stay doing nothing...........
  • #571
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:36am Jul 21, 2008 6:36am
Using a regression channel with graduated standard deviation levels makes it clear when to establish/add to positions. I am using .75,1.5,2.25, and 3 SDs as points to establish/increase position sizes. Channel length is about 10 days on hourly chart. Entering at 1x,2x,4x,and 8x standard position size, respectively. Also, I suspect, easy to automate/backtest.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #572
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:40am Jul 21, 2008 6:40am
is this for u a good chart???
thnx.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spieler indicator ea.gif 1.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #573
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:46am Jul 21, 2008 6:46am
Quoting spieler
if you understand the concept is about recorrelation after decorrelation how come could you enter short position on 15 th??????????

And this has nothing to do with discretional but only knowing how to read a simple graph
And dont forget than 13/14 th were exceptional.
Today is like friday a big borring day that happens sometimes.
Good that we have such things at the begining so you see how to react and so far how to react is to stay doing nothing...........
Ok Spieler, let's get to the basics, could you please show me how and when the pairs are correlated ? Because this seems to be the problem for me here.
Starting from a flat position, what's the start date since you consider a correlation/decorrelation ?
Looking at 16 Jul (when I was flat), I had to watch the price fall from 13 Jul and for this as you said don't take the short trade ? And why not look back from 10 Jul or 1 Jul or whatever date before ?
What's confusing me is that you defined correlation/decorrelation using previous day close so everyday we start at 0% so I'm a little bit confusing on what's the reference entry point to start to build up positions.
Please don't get me wrong I'm not criticize your system , I'm only trying to understand it

Skyline
  • #574
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:49am Jul 21, 2008 6:49am
Sometimes following my strict MM i snot good but on the long term it is and we all want to be there tomorrow and in the coming years.;;;

For exemple i was very close to enter a second position minutes ago , we wera at more than +0,25 from my last entry but not yet +0,25 for the day.
This trade would have been good so far
  • #575
  • Edited 7:17am Jul 21, 2008 6:55am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting Pippopotamus
Using a regression channel with graduated standard deviation levels makes it clear when to establish/add to positions. I am using .75,1.5,2.25, and 3 SDs as points to establish/increase position sizes. Channel length is about 10 days on hourly chart. Entering at 1x,2x,4x,and 8x standard position size, respectively. Also, I suspect, easy to automate/backtest.
That sounds interesting, Pippopotamus. Could you please post a screenshot of the setup you're using?
  • #576
  • Jul 21, 2008 7:16am Jul 21, 2008 7:16am
I do not know how to post charts. It is really very simple. Single regression channel, hourly chart, 240 hours. SD intervals as I wrote above. This is in initial stages and needs to be refined. My last entry (2nd) was at 1.6224 (short 2x standard pos. size, at +1.5 SDs) and my target is 1.6188 (+.75 SDs, a retracement of one interval).
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #577
  • Jul 21, 2008 7:21am Jul 21, 2008 7:21am
Thanks, I'll give it a try
  • #578
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:09am Jul 21, 2008 9:09am
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
  • #579
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:27am Jul 21, 2008 9:27am
Quoting spieler
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Spieler , could you update us on your current positions opened ?

Thx
Skyline
  • #580
  • Jul 21, 2008 9:31am Jul 21, 2008 9:31am
As indicated i am still short 1 lot at 1,0232 and 1,5814 loosing 3,4K but i took 2,6k first by taking only one leg.

The loss is very small so absolutely no stress we are in a range i am waiting either a up to put more lots or a down to cut with a profit .
Nothing anormal here just market with low volatility
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