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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #341
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:11pm Feb 8, 2007 1:11pm
looks like a good round top with good profit targets if it closes below 89sma
Attached Image
  • #342
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:11pm Feb 8, 2007 1:11pm
Also keep an eye out for EUR/CHF. This thing ran up really fast, and is at the ceiling. Philip what are your thoughts on Steep round tops? it looks like EUR/CHF will form a steep round top if it falls. Are these less reliable than smoother, flatter, round tops?

thnx
  • #343
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:13pm Feb 8, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting DireXiv
7:05 GMT

I see a head and shoulder on my chart? and it's just coming down on the head. I'm only going in if it closes below the 89 EMA... so I'm looking to get in as the EUR/YEn has cooled off too, after a very large rise.
I just took that one as it is a evening star as well. Target around 121.80

Sorry 120.80
  • #344
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:16pm Feb 8, 2007 1:16pm
Philip do you mean the USD/JPY? I am confused why you are bullish since it formed a round top. Could you explain please?
  • #345
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:18pm Feb 8, 2007 1:18pm
Mine closed below 89SMA
Attached Image
  • #346
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:21pm Feb 8, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting turk87
Philip do you mean the USD/JPY? I am confused why you are bullish since it formed a round top. Could you explain please?

Finger error. Hope you got it. Target 1.2080
  • #347
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:21pm Feb 8, 2007 1:21pm
ISn't that a negative thing? I thought your system was based on shorting pairs that form round macd tops. However you think it will go up to 121.80, an 80 PIP rise from current levels. Was that a typo?

EDIT: Lol I knew it!! thanks PHilip.

I jumped on this one, sell @ 121.04- stop at 121.53 (I put 50 pip stops on all my orders)
  • #348
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:29pm Feb 8, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Look at this chart. Something is about to happen very soon I think.

Phillip ,


Do you expect a strong break out of one side of the trend lines or the other ?
Sunseeker
  • #349
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:38pm Feb 8, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting Sunseeker
Phillip ,


Do you expect a strong break out of one side of the trend lines or the other ?
Sunseeker
I like what I see. Tripple bottom against the trendline. Previous two was morning stars. This one is starting with the possibility of another morning star. A close above the 200SMA will get me interested. All the emotion is there for a big move.

The problem with a morning star is that you will only know when it is finish. At the moment that liitle candle can be a continuation. Next candle close will give some clue.
  • #350
  • Feb 8, 2007 1:47pm Feb 8, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting turk87
ISn't that a negative thing? I thought your system was based on shorting pairs that form round macd tops. However you think it will go up to 121.80, an 80 PIP rise from current levels. Was that a typo?

EDIT: Lol I knew it!! thanks PHilip.

I jumped on this one, sell @ 121.04- stop at 121.53 (I put 50 pip stops on all my orders)
No problem to take it out of the way but remember your risk:reward. I also take my stop out of the way if I am watching live but I have my actual stop with a horizontal line and will allow only a few pips off that before closing it and take the loss. On a morning star or evening star just above the shoulder will be sufficient as if it goes above that it means the evening star is no longer valid.
  • #351
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:00pm Feb 8, 2007 2:00pm
Bonjour, it will go up because my channel.
Attached Image
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.
  • #352
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:13pm Feb 8, 2007 2:13pm
I backstudied a number of MACD signals from May 06 to Nov 06, and I noticed that the first 2 candles after the signal normally are if not high reward but usually low risk. That is, the average drawdown in pips runs around 20, and rarely goes above 40. Therefore I concluded it would be safe to place 50-60 stoploss there, which will protect you in case of some unusual activity but will not take you out with those stoploss chasing tails.

BTW I am in USDJPY and will try to follow Phillips recommendations on proper trading of it.
  • #353
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:22pm Feb 8, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting irusoh
I backstudied a number of MACD signals from May 06 to Nov 06, and I noticed that the first 2 candles after the signal normally are if not high reward but usually low risk. That is, the average drawdown in pips runs around 20, and rarely goes above 40. Therefore I concluded it would be safe to place 50-60 stoploss there, which will protect you in case of some unusual activity but will not take you out with those stoploss chasing tails.

BTW I am in USDJPY and will try to follow Phillips recommendations on proper trading of it.
Your right. The only thing here is that we did not come from the trendline resistance although it was from closeby high on 02/02/2007. I will set my stoploss to breakeven after 15 pips gain just for incase it is a pullback. My current stoploss are at 121.35. I must admit that I have never traded the UsdJpy. It is a first time for me. Does not really know its motion. New experience.
  • #354
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:29pm Feb 8, 2007 2:29pm
judging by GBPUSD chart we will need 3-4 sideways candles (hopefully downtailed) in order to form a good round bottom or maybe a sharp up candle to form a v-top. In other words do we have to wait for a definite MACD signals before jumping in?
  • #355
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:56pm Feb 8, 2007 2:56pm
[quote=Phillip Nel;211816]
Quoting fxnewbie 71


If it is the horizontal lines I will change them to 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Hope it works. Only for the GbpJpy change the hor lines to these settings.
hi Phillip

is there any chance you could update your original write up or create a new one that would list the different MACD lines depending on the pairs?

Thanks
  • #356
  • Feb 8, 2007 3:48pm Feb 8, 2007 3:48pm
I went short on EUR/YEN. Anyone else thinking about trading this pair?
  • #357
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:02pm Feb 8, 2007 4:02pm
Quoting benfranklin
I went short on EUR/YEN. Anyone else thinking about trading this pair?
BEN - I got in too. just got home, goint to be my first trade with Phil's strategy. I set my stop at 158.18. how bout you? if you don't mind me asking.
  • #358
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:06pm Feb 8, 2007 4:06pm
10:03 GMT

I did also. Thought it looked overall like a pretty solid setup... hoping it doesnt' continue. head and shoulders, above .45 MACD line, RSI maxes, tail/shadow up, way above ma's, with large price point for profit, and not that big of stoploss, along with a double top candle pattern (actually triple top) to boot as resistance from going higher...

Quoting benfranklin
I went short on EUR/YEN. Anyone else thinking about trading this pair?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #359
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:06pm Feb 8, 2007 4:06pm
SL=158.30 for me
  • #360
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:13pm Feb 8, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The tsunami. Did it make sense what I said. Like to know.
Phillip, I am very thankful to you for all that you do to help us be better traders. Your tsunami is helping me to think more from the perspective of a trader and not from the outside trying to look in as i has been doing. So far i do 2 trades on eur/usd for 31 pips and 23 pips. One question is do you ever consider looking at smaller graphs like 1 HR fro a earlier entry? Thank you for sharing your generous contributions with us alls .

O'Zeeke
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