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Weekly Gbpjpy Breakout System

  • #481
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:11am Jul 15, 2008 11:11am
Quoting billbss
High=211.83
Low =210.48

Buy stop = 211.83+1+9 = 211.93

Sell stop = 210.48 - 1 = 210.47

Buy stop - Sell stop = 146 pips


Buy stop = 211.93
SL = 210.47
TP = 213.39

Sell Stop = 210.47
SL = 211.93
TP = 209.01
Well our TP short got touched so I recouped half of my losses for this week. I have another open trade which I let free until the end of the week.

I think we should give one more chance to this strategy, hopefully GY broke out of that bloody range and start to trend again, hopefully to the down side.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #482
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:31am Jul 15, 2008 11:31am
Quoting gagiul
Well our TP short got touched so I recouped half of my losses for this week. I have another open trade which I let free until the end of the week.

I think we should give one more chance to this strategy, hopefully GY broke out of that bloody range and start to trend again, hopefully to the down side.
I haven't given up on the strategy.

In March and April, when it went through some losses it had a 6% drawdown. I had already decided I would step aside if it ever went down more than twice that. It did that with the last stop out. I'll get back in it if it recovers to the 6% mark. It's already climbed from -14% to -12%.

You never know when a system is broke and when it is in a natural lull. Those were the numbers I had decided on.

If you stay in it, you may be making the right decision. I'm doing what I had decided upon.
  • #483
  • Jul 16, 2008 3:32am Jul 16, 2008 3:32am
Using alpari data, my short with TP doubled has just been hit! Hopefully have a nice little run of winners again
  • #484
  • Jul 18, 2008 8:31pm Jul 18, 2008 8:31pm
ok, this is a good caution strategy. I should employ it as well, but I have to calculate my own drawdown percentage, since I started trading this system only from june. In backtesting, 2008 looks great, 2007 is quite profitable, but 2006 is awful. According to my MM, the strategy produced a negative -2200 pips in 2006, which however were quickly recouped in 2007. So I should be careful with it and see when it will enter in the drawdown period.


Quoting billbss
I haven't given up on the strategy.

In March and April, when it went through some losses it had a 6% drawdown. I had already decided I would step aside if it ever went down more than twice that. It did that with the last stop out. I'll get back in it if it recovers to the 6% mark. It's already climbed from -14% to -12%.

You never know when a system is broke and when it is in a natural lull. Those were the numbers I had decided on.

If you stay in it, you may be making the right decision. I'm doing what I had decided upon.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #485
  • Jul 20, 2008 12:32pm Jul 20, 2008 12:32pm
High = 213.82
Low = 212.64

Buy stop = 213.92
Sell stop = 212.63

Buy stop - sell stop = 129 pips


Buy stop = 213.92
SL = 212.63
TP = 215.11


Sell stop = 212.63
SL = 213.92
TP = 211.34
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #486
  • Jul 21, 2008 3:54pm Jul 21, 2008 3:54pm
I miss the opening so i will wait for the channel to see what will happen.
  • #487
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:52pm Jul 24, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting tomomi72003
High = 213.82
Low = 212.64

Buy stop = 213.92
Sell stop = 212.63

Buy stop - sell stop = 129 pips


Buy stop = 213.92
SL = 212.63
TP = 215.11


Sell stop = 212.63
SL = 213.92
TP = 211.34
this week i finished at BE. what i lost on the short recouped on long side.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #488
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:13pm Jul 24, 2008 4:13pm
I am glad to see that this thread is not dead.
  • #489
  • Jul 27, 2008 3:10pm Jul 27, 2008 3:10pm
Buy stop = 215.01
SL = 212.77
TP = 217.25



Sell stop = 212.77
SL = 215.01
TP = 210.53
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #490
  • Jul 29, 2008 5:38pm Jul 29, 2008 5:38pm
I have had a few good days lately. taking what i could get. I still work if you work it
  • #491
  • Jul 29, 2008 6:06pm Jul 29, 2008 6:06pm
large range is for geppy better... but I think this week everybody waiting for friday.... till than no much movement.. IMO
Veni, vidi, vici...
  • #492
  • Jul 29, 2008 6:14pm Jul 29, 2008 6:14pm
i'll just throw my two cents out there (in this thread) because its a good a place as any...

the problem with timed breakouts is that you don't let the consolidation come to you. you pick a time for the breakout to occur, and if your timing is off, you are stopped out.

the way i look at breakouts is to wait for the consolidation to appear first, then risk based on a breakout from the range.

possibly more later....
  • #493
  • Jul 29, 2008 6:21pm Jul 29, 2008 6:21pm
bill

i must say that i disagree with you.

i don't believe in a system breaking or having natural tendencies. no two years ever look the same for a pair.... so a system must be able to handle all types of conditions. a year can do well, then a lousy one, and then the 3rd year be spectacular.... was the system ever broken?

no....

the market dictated that 2 of the 3 years would be good. it's always in control....

Quoting billbss
You never know when a system is broke and when it is in a natural lull. Those were the numbers I had decided on.
  • #494
  • Jul 29, 2008 6:34pm Jul 29, 2008 6:34pm
the gbp/jpy looks dull and boring today although there are other pairs such as eur/usd and gbp/chf performed very well and had a good deal of movements.

ok ,its just hard times ,i have to wait till the dull days end
I always knew that someday I would make it big
  • #495
  • Jul 29, 2008 6:55pm Jul 29, 2008 6:55pm
Quoting tdion
bill

i must say that i disagree with you.

i don't believe in a system breaking or having natural tendencies. no two years ever look the same for a pair.... so a system must be able to handle all types of conditions. a year can do well, then a lousy one, and then the 3rd year be spectacular.... was the system ever broken?

no....

the market dictated that 2 of the 3 years would be good. it's always in control....
You may well be right. I know you analyze these things a lot deeper than I do or can do.

I believe a system can work for a long period of time, years even, and then stop working and never work again.

I don't necessarily believe that about this system, but I think it happens.

This system worked (works) because the GBP/JPY has had a tendency to decide on a direction, at the beginning of the week, and move in that same direction a certain percentage of its average daily range, before turning.

It did this with enough frequency, that it was a profitable trade.

Why? I don't know. I doubt anyone knows. There was something causing this pair to move as I described.

It has stopped that pattern of movement for the last 5 weeks, or so. Why? Again, I don't know, because I don't know why it was doing it in the first place. It may resume or it may not. If it doesn't, then this system will no longer be profitable. Should that happen, I would call this method broke.

Maybe we agree and just didn't agree on the language to use.
  • #496
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:02pm Aug 1, 2008 3:02pm
Buy stop = 213.23
SL = 212.03
TP = 214.43



Sell stop = 212.03
SL = 213.12
TP = 210.83
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #497
  • Aug 5, 2008 12:38pm Aug 5, 2008 12:38pm
TP hit for me this week!
  • #498
  • Aug 5, 2008 3:09pm Aug 5, 2008 3:09pm
another winning week.
  • #499
  • Aug 9, 2008 5:26pm Aug 9, 2008 5:26pm
Buy stop = 211.91
SL = 210.80
TP = 213.02



Sell stop = 210.80
SL = 211.91
TP = 209.69
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #500
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:46pm Aug 10, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting tomomi72003
Buy stop = 211.91
SL = 210.80
TP = 213.02



Sell stop = 210.80
SL = 211.91
TP = 209.69

TP HIT FOR THE WEEK IN A SALE STOP. HIT TP THEN IN A RETRACEL
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