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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #181
  • Jul 13, 2008 4:52pm Jul 13, 2008 4:52pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
oil situation is very serious one america uses 4th of oil of the world, they need it much more than others...and without it ecomony will completely collapse.
We use at least 1/4.

But the world economy would collaspe without cheap energy, not just the USA.
  • #182
  • Jul 13, 2008 5:04pm Jul 13, 2008 5:04pm
NYMEX Crude opened in NY at $144.875 basically unchanged from friday.

So far it has traded in a $0.42 range.

Not much pop from the Iran rumor.

I forgot the opening is at 600pm est. I was looking at a 15 min bar and the closing time of 1st bar is at 615pm.
  • #183
  • Jul 13, 2008 5:35pm Jul 13, 2008 5:35pm
yeah..so much for the rumors..i'm waiting for the nz rite nw..
  • #184
  • Jul 14, 2008 4:36am Jul 14, 2008 4:36am
Quoting SunTrader
We use at least 1/4.

But the world economy would collaspe without cheap energy, not just the USA.

Yes your right this is why ....there a big problem ...
  • #185
  • Jul 17, 2008 3:14pm Jul 17, 2008 3:14pm
Long 129.8
  • #186
  • Jul 17, 2008 4:40pm Jul 17, 2008 4:40pm
Good luck. If $129 doesn't hold on Gann Fan line, then next stop I believe is $122:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #187
  • Jul 18, 2008 5:57pm Jul 18, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
This is getting out of hand. This thing just won't stop climbing. Hitting $117 and staying above 116.50.
I am looking at $3.50 and above for gas prices in the south east, and more in other places.
Some one needs to do something, and do it fast. When travel season gets here they always raise prices. There will be no traveling. Air lines will keep falling out of business.

I guess Bush administration is allowing this because there so heavily invested in oil, let it ride as high as possible in his last few months in office, and take profits just before he leaves and the new president does something to drive prices down?

If this thing is allowed to go much further the whole country will shut down.
What alternatives are you suggesting? I believe no one has thought of an answer to it yet because gas price is still bearable. People have money to spend and a couple hundred here and there per week is a better option than other alternatives. People will continue to drive for a very long time in the US. A transportation infrastructure overhaul is not going to happen in this century. Inform me if you disagree.
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  • #188
  • Jul 18, 2008 6:05pm Jul 18, 2008 6:05pm
Quoting forexpert
What alternatives are you suggesting? I believe no one has thought of an answer to it yet because gas price is still bearable. People have money to spend and a couple hundred here and there per week is a better option than other alternatives. People will continue to drive for a very long time in the US. A transportation infrastructure overhaul is not going to happen in this century. Inform me if you disagree.
Oil and lack there of is going to turn alot of alive people into dead people over the next 20years, I'm expecting a 90%++++ population decline, there is just no way we can grow and especially ship enough food and purify enough water to sustain more than 10% of the current population.

We'll likely drop lower population wise than before we discovered oil and then increase to around that level, maybe a tad higher as we'll keep some of our technology hopefully, yes i expect life will go back to 200years ago.

Scarey times ahead and it's only just beginning!!

The poorer countrys will ofcourse suffer first and wars will be raged to keep the richer countrys in the life styles there used to.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #189
  • Jul 18, 2008 7:27pm Jul 18, 2008 7:27pm
What is scary is the people that actually believe something like that might actually happen.

Which Hollywood blockbuster convinced you? War of the Worlds or An Inconvenient Truth.
  • #190
  • Jul 18, 2008 8:35pm Jul 18, 2008 8:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
What is scary is the people that actually believe something like that might actually happen.

Which Hollywood blockbuster convinced you? War of the Worlds or An Inconvenient Truth.

haha well chosen words mate
  • #191
  • Jul 18, 2008 8:54pm Jul 18, 2008 8:54pm
Do you guys trade spot oil?
  • #192
  • Jul 19, 2008 5:19am Jul 19, 2008 5:19am
Quoting Turveyd
Oil and lack there of is going to turn alot of alive people into dead people over the next 20years, I'm expecting a 90%++++ population decline, there is just no way we can grow and especially ship enough food and purify enough water to sustain more than 10% of the current population.

We'll likely drop lower population wise than before we discovered oil and then increase to around that level, maybe a tad higher as we'll keep some of our technology hopefully, yes i expect life will go back to 200years ago.

Scarey times ahead and it's only just beginning!!

The poorer countrys will ofcourse suffer first and wars will be raged to keep the richer countrys in the life styles there used to.

IMO you have some valid points but I think you have got a bit carried away

World War 2 took 6 years and 3% of the population was killed,so at that rate in 20 years 10% would be killed.So for 90% to die in a world with 3 times as many people would take a war 30 times as destructive lasting 3 times as long.
It would have to be nuclear which would render the planet uninhabitable.

http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overpopulation

This is a good read.

Near the bottom is what I was looking for.

It implies that for the population to all have a living standard of the West we would need an Earth with 3-5 times as many resources.

So to maintain our standard of living the population will have to drastically decline,or as what will probably have to happen..The West will have to reduce its standard of living.

What the timescale is on this I have no idea.

At the moment with the world all wanting oil the market is finding out what people are willing to pay.
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #193
  • Jul 19, 2008 11:02am Jul 19, 2008 11:02am
I don't know how or who did the calculating to figure how that many more earths would be needed to bring everone's living standard up but how would they explain the fact that more people currently and in the future will make their first phone call on a cellular system as opposed to a land wired old system. Which means far fewer poles and wires and switching stations etc. And how do they account for the move, however gradual, to renewable non-carbon based energy sources. And 'x' number of other efficiencies yet to be discovered and implemented.

The history of mankind is innovation and better lives for almost every generation that follows, with a blip now and then. Maybe this is one of those blips but I thought only bible thumpers believe in the apocalypse.
  • #194
  • Jul 19, 2008 2:39pm Jul 19, 2008 2:39pm
Meanwhile back to Oil -

I think although there might be a bounce off swing low next week this market will probably trade lower still since the close on both Thursday and Friday was below the 3 week consolidation (shown in red box) . Nervous longs will get shaken out. I don't see any support till $122 zone although a lot always depends on the US$ since they trade inversely.

Fib time periods to watch are: July 21 (monday), July 24-25 and July 30-Aug 1st.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #195
  • Jul 19, 2008 3:48pm Jul 19, 2008 3:48pm
SunTrader,

Nice chart and Gann Fan.......from 2005 to 2008 Oil price corrections have run in the range of around 10% to 15 % so down to the $122 range puts it in the order of 15%.

The better bang for the futures margin dollar has been shorting NG vs OIL not unlike shorting the 10 Year Notes vs long the Dow since Monday.

Boone Pickens is poised to speak to Congress Tuesday so the idea starting to circulate over the possibility of the emergence of comprehensive energy policy and the viability of real alternatives to foreign import dependence actually being feasible might put some downside pressure on oil price.....at least for a few days or a few weeks.

Anyway, appreciate your posts......very informative.
  • #196
  • Jul 29, 2008 7:20pm Jul 29, 2008 7:20pm
Is it right time for LONG????
  • #197
  • Jul 29, 2008 8:32pm Jul 29, 2008 8:32pm
I would wait to see what Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories figures are and what the market reaction is. If Crude then holds $121/$122 area and turns up then it should be good for a few dollars but $125/$126 has some resistance - then watch the $128 level
  • #198
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:23pm Jul 29, 2008 10:23pm
What happened to the steam pushing oil up? It just cooled by about $2.4 billion. SemGroup's Collapse Pinches Small, Regional Oil Producers,
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...6_FORTUNE5.htm
Now lets see if there is some real steam behind the market.
  • #199
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:36pm Jul 29, 2008 11:36pm
Can I have an oil chart or trade it on meta trader?
  • #200
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:05am Aug 1, 2008 4:05am
Oil is dropping again??? is there any hope or go up again ?
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