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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #161
  • Jun 25, 2008 7:23pm Jun 25, 2008 7:23pm
imo, good time to start selling oil rallies. collect the shorts slowly, stop set at 140.

In real markets, prices will continue pricing in and i expect more hikes in oil prices coming foward, it will hit many people like a rock.
  • #162
  • Jun 25, 2008 9:29pm Jun 25, 2008 9:29pm
You be my hero and do it.

I prefer to be chicken little and wait for an actually break.
  • #163
  • Jun 26, 2008 1:50am Jun 26, 2008 1:50am
Quoting Albertini
my forecast on oil
I would not concurr. I'd look at it as a flag, TP 150 SL 130 (around) draw a trendline from 2008-04-01 2008-05-01 and 2008-06-01 (dates may differ, find the lows) (actually it is longer, since this bulls run is on from some time now). I'd draw smth, but I do not have my charting on this computer, and I'm just killing time reading, and well, my first post here I believe

But if this HSH structure works it should have enough burst power to get through to the trendline, and if it stays below 129$... it's bearish on oil. Most unlikely though.

Also the current EUR/USD market is more bullish than bearish. Crude usually is connected with EUR/USD (although more on bullish than bearish ).

Take care while shorting, always trade with the trend, because it is Your friend... and the long term is bullish, and its coming into the trendline. Of course the trendline does not have to hold. But propalby it should. As I have said, the EUR/USD pair is currently in "bullish" mode after yesterday FOMC.

As to the "mad max" scenario with 5$... 6$... 7$/gallon... this is not the "mad max", this would be maybe 20-25$/gal. In Poland the current price is like 8-10$/gallon (4.8PLN-5.2PLN/litre USDPLN around 2.15), and everybody makes a living more or less (of course there is unrest about these prices, but they've been always as far as I know). In the next year there will be even a tax increase for fuel (excise). So the US prices are "a bargain" for me ) And "big oil" and "big boys" as some call the market do know this. Drivers all around the globe will suffer, shed a tear, and pay. What choice does one have? So why should the prices fall? Simply there is no "hard" fact of breaking the oil bulls run... Unfortunately
-- just a simple trend follower
  • #164
  • Jul 3, 2008 3:50am Jul 3, 2008 3:50am
There are a plethora of articles on the internet proclaiming that oil futures speculators do not have a role in bidding up the price oil. The core of the argument relies on the fact that the futures market does not involve actually delivery of the underlying commodity (unlike the spot market). Of course, and ironically, the spot oil market is very illiquid. It is also interesting to note that these articles do not mention anything about the existence of Commodity ETFs, most of which have not been around for but a few years and could, in facilitating access to this otherwise illiquid market, have an influence on the commodities price itself. Unlike futures contracts, ETFs are backed by the underlying commodity that their represent.

Be that as it may, I am going to try and show that regardless of the outcome or validity of the above argument, speculators on the oil spot market are causing an inflated (regardless of the role of futures speculators).

A question of exiting supply not supply (per se)

The decline of the USD to a great extent does affect the rise in oil prices. One should keep in mind that since oil is quoted in USD (forming a currency pair of sorts) those wishing to sell their product, ultimately need to redeem it for the ever declining dollar. This essentially leads to a hoarding affect, putting constraints on (existing) supply. In other words, before we go on asking about whether there is enough oil in the ground (which could indeed be a valid long-term supply issue/concern), the more pertinent and short-term issue concerns the state the commodity above the ground. With the existence of the USD/OIL currency pair in mind, hoarders of the commodity have essentially become (unwittingly perhaps), SPECULATORS on the spot market: They are deciding to hold their long oil positions against the USD.

The remedy needed to pop the oil bubble: A stronger USD, i.e. an incentive for oil hoarders to come out of hiding and cash in their barrels for the USD. This means that in order to push oil lower over the short term, the Fed needs to increase interest rates; to insure lower prices over the long term, the U.S. needs to tame its twin deficit. This fact also puts the decoupling theory to rest: Global economic health and inflation depend on the health of the U.S. economy, plain and simple.

fxterrapin
  • #165
  • Jul 3, 2008 4:17am Jul 3, 2008 4:17am
Quoting fxterrapin
The remedy needed to pop the oil bubble:
Build more refineries, conserve, invest in renewables.

There is plenty of oil, they just can't refine it fast enough. The last refinery was built 27 years ago. But overall I think the high cost of oil is a good thing. It's forcing people and industries to conserve and change the way they live. Plus I am invested in a few green companies that are doing rather well.
Just Trade It
  • #166
  • Jul 3, 2008 4:21am Jul 3, 2008 4:21am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
But overall I think the high cost of oil is a good thing.
No kidding.
History is written by the victors.
  • #167
  • Jul 3, 2008 4:22am Jul 3, 2008 4:22am
Dont blame me because I speculate on oil. I'm nothing compared to everyone else.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #168
  • Jul 3, 2008 4:37am Jul 3, 2008 4:37am
Quoting Money-RX
No kidding.
No I'm not. I really think it's good because it's forcing people to stop living like pigs and conserve their resources which also reduces the green house gases. Plus it's forcing auto makers to make smaller more fuel efficient cars.
Architects are designing energy independent buildings, etc. etc.
Again I only see good things in the future because of this. I would actually like to see the U.S to pay over $6.00 per gallon. Then all of those rednecks with monster trucks that get 4 blocks per gallon will become extinct.
The change is in the air, can you smell it?
Just Trade It
  • #169
  • Jul 3, 2008 6:16am Jul 3, 2008 6:16am
Quoting fxterrapin
There are a plethora of articles on the internet proclaiming that oil futures speculators do not have a role in bidding up the price oil. The core of the argument relies on the fact that the futures market does not involve actually delivery of the underlying commodity (unlike the spot market). Of course, and ironically, the spot oil market is very illiquid. It is also interesting to note that these articles do not mention anything about the existence of Commodity ETFs, most of which have not been around for but a few years and could, in facilitating access to this otherwise illiquid market, have an influence on the commodities price itself. Unlike futures contracts, ETFs are backed by the underlying commodity that their represent.

Be that as it may, I am going to try and show that regardless of the outcome or validity of the above argument, speculators on the oil spot market are causing an inflated (regardless of the role of futures speculators).

A question of exiting supply not supply (per se)

The decline of the USD to a great extent does affect the rise in oil prices. One should keep in mind that since oil is quoted in USD (forming a currency pair of sorts) those wishing to sell their product, ultimately need to redeem it for the ever declining dollar. This essentially leads to a hoarding affect, putting constraints on (existing) supply. In other words, before we go on asking about whether there is enough oil in the ground (which could indeed be a valid long-term supply issue/concern), the more pertinent and short-term issue concerns the state the commodity above the ground. With the existence of the USD/OIL currency pair in mind, hoarders of the commodity have essentially become (unwittingly perhaps), SPECULATORS on the spot market: They are deciding to hold their long oil positions against the USD.

remedy needed to pop the oil bubble: A stronger USD, i.e. an incentive for oil hoarders to coThe me out of hiding and cash in their barrels for the USD. This means that in order to push oil lower over the short term, the Fed needs to increase interest rates; to insure lower prices over the long term, the U.S. needs to tame its twin deficit. This fact also puts the decoupling theory to rest: Global economic health and inflation depend on the health of the U.S. economy, plain and simple.

fxterrapin
i agree very much with your last comment on US policy shift. The reason the oil price is high is not because of speculators, since for every buyer there is a seller as such the market prices and reflects fundmaentals on a daily basis.

The underlying policy which no one talks about is US Forigen Policy which is killling the poor and middle class throughout the world via inflation.

The Geopolicital tension caused by the US in both Irag, Afgthanstan and even in Irseal/Lebanon is helped add fuel to the Crude Oil fire per se.

This coupled with the US bail out of financial instititions as result of the housing bubble(created by artically low interests globally) has resulted in the extremly extressive creation of new dollars by the Federal Reserve. The dollar is worlds reverse currency therefore debased of it has resulted in huge global inflation.

Prices in terms of Gold are absolutely flat its the value of the dollar that has been debased resulting in the Oil, gold, and general commodites spike dont forgot the food price spike that is putting more into poverty.

End result is blame to marekt particitpants, instead of playing the blame game the Congress should realise that INFLATION IS A MONATARY CONCEPT artically manfested by bad policy from them, the federal reserve and the big banking instititions.

Well we known its US that suffer and the rich get richer, and the rest suffer...

Sorry for the bad spelling!!

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Well worth a listen

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Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #170
  • Jul 3, 2008 1:13pm Jul 3, 2008 1:13pm
Quoting fx local
Prices in terms of Gold are absolutely flat its the value of the dollar that has been debased resulting in the Oil, gold, and general commodites spike dont forgot the food price spike that is putting more into poverty.

End result is blame to marekt particitpants, instead of playing the blame game the Congress should realise that INFLATION IS A MONATARY CONCEPT artically manfested by bad policy from them, the federal reserve and the big banking instititions.
Excellent post. Your spelling may not be that great but your analysis is spot on. It is a blame game and the spineless weasels on The Hill are managing, so far, to deflect most of it away from them.
  • #171
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:47am Jul 11, 2008 7:47am
new record today.... will it reach 150 this month as expected?
I think so.
  • #172
  • Jul 11, 2008 8:32am Jul 11, 2008 8:32am
No reason it can't reach it in the next day or two.
  • #173
  • Jul 13, 2008 1:22pm Jul 13, 2008 1:22pm
breaking news. today july 13th... Teherán

Iran has announced they have found an oil reserve of 1100 millions barrels... not much details yet... but this could be a significant data for tomorrow trading.

I wonder what Bush has to say about this... something like... "damn we should have invaded them earlier.. now everybody will think again that we do it for the oil..."
  • #174
  • Jul 13, 2008 3:43pm Jul 13, 2008 3:43pm
Iran discovered oil field and ..........

Is this indicator for oil to go down ?? ( logically ) or it will go up ?
  • #175
  • Jul 13, 2008 3:56pm Jul 13, 2008 3:56pm
i think d price will go down..unless if they(iranian) said that it is not for sale..then it'll go up..i think..
  • #176
  • Jul 13, 2008 3:59pm Jul 13, 2008 3:59pm
or maybe this is just one of the speculation to lower the price..who knows..
  • #177
  • Jul 13, 2008 4:37pm Jul 13, 2008 4:37pm
Quoting emda
breaking news. today july 13th... Teherán

Iran has announced they have found an oil reserve of 1100 millions barrels... not much details yet... but this could be a significant data for tomorrow trading.

I wonder what Bush has to say about this... something like... "damn we should have invaded them earlier.. now everybody will think again that we do it for the oil..."
Why had they misplaced it ?

Probably 100% rumor. Should know about what effect, if any, in 45 minutes.
  • #178
  • Jul 13, 2008 4:44pm Jul 13, 2008 4:44pm
what you mean by 45 mins ?
  • #179
  • Jul 13, 2008 4:45pm Jul 13, 2008 4:45pm
Quoting dRunKen aRmy
or maybe this is just one of the speculation to lower the price..who knows..
oil situation is very serious one america uses 4th of oil of the world, they need it much more than others...and without it ecomony will completely collapse.

the problem is there production output has peaked and that means its only depleting, hence the fight for it ie iraq. this drives prices high as demand increases...its a major issue which will bleed the world dry and seems to have no solution.

some people say hydrogen but it doesnt yield anything remotely close to that of oil...economy as we know will colapse, everything that uses it will become a luxury.....doomday stuff but a reality
  • #180
  • Jul 13, 2008 4:50pm Jul 13, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting mr.president
what you mean by 45 mins ?
615pm est is when electronic trading starts.

I'll let you know the opening price.
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