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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #521
  • Jul 18, 2008 10:17am Jul 18, 2008 10:17am
Dear Spieler,

Could you answer Visual One's questions, p.34 post #509? ---They bother me, too.

Thanks so much.

Lenoxer
  • #522
  • Jul 18, 2008 10:28am Jul 18, 2008 10:28am
Dear Spieler,

May I ask how much stress do you actually feel when the market moves against you? In short, how safe do you FEEL your model is? ---I ask because I am a huge fan of reducing stress in trading: I would always be happy to make less money for less stress.

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #523
  • Edited 11:17am Jul 18, 2008 11:16am | Edited 11:17am
I love this thread and want to say thank you for it.

Here's my question.

Let's say today is my first day to trade and I look at the pair and it's at +.25 for the day. It's a short trade for me. Although you guys may not being going short because you are still long from yesterday or the day before and you're total is still negative or a little on the + side. It's still a good trade for me to go short, correct?

Ok, so if the answer to that is yes then why wouldn't we treat each day as a new trading opportunity even if we're in a trade. Example.... I'm short from yesterday 3 times right now. So I'm not saying go short if today gets to +.25 for the day because I'm already short but what if for the day it gets to -.25, why shouldn't I treat it the same way as my first question and go long because they trade is still valid based on correlations correct?

Hopefully I've been clear on my question.
  • #524
  • Jul 18, 2008 12:58pm Jul 18, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting RBing
I love this thread and want to say thank you for it.

Here's my question.

Let's say today is my first day to trade and I look at the pair and it's at +.25 for the day. It's a short trade for me. Although you guys may not being going short because you are still long from yesterday or the day before and you're total is still negative or a little on the + side. It's still a good trade for me to go short, correct?
The simple answer is YES.

Quoting RBing
Ok, so if the answer to that is yes then why wouldn't we treat each day as a new trading opportunity even if we're in a trade. Example.... I'm short from yesterday 3 times right now. So I'm not saying go short if today gets to +.25 for the day because I'm already short but what if for the day it gets to -.25, why shouldn't I treat it the same way as my first question and go long because they trade is still valid based on correlations correct?

Hopefully I've been clear on my question.
The complicated answer is NO. Until the existing trade is close completely; if you open a trade in the opposite way you are hedging the hedge. If the trades are exactly the same size what you gain on one trade you will lose on the other.
  • #525
  • Jul 18, 2008 1:23pm Jul 18, 2008 1:23pm
FXTrader, if the first answer is yes then it seems the second one should be yes as well.


Lets say I'm long from yesterday. Today the market goes up and it's at .+.25 for the day. I have a good chance of still being in the trades long because total they haven't reached where I need them to. But, lets say once the market gets to +.25 for the day it starts heading down again, now I'm still even or negative with my longs. Why not have taken advantage of "today's" action and have made money coming back short? I understand it could keep going up and that first entry for the day could go more negative and once we get out of yesterdays long we're still down because of our shorts today.
  • #526
  • Edited 2:31pm Jul 18, 2008 2:19pm | Edited 2:31pm
Quoting RBing
FXTrader, if the first answer is yes then it seems the second one should be yes as well.


Lets say I'm long from yesterday. Today the market goes up and it's at .+.25 for the day. I have a good chance of still being in the trades long because total they haven't reached where I need them to. But, lets say once the market gets to +.25 for the day it starts heading down again, now I'm still even or negative with my longs. Why not have taken advantage of "today's" action and have made money coming back short? I understand it could keep going up and that first entry for the day could go more negative and once we get out of yesterdays long we're still down because of our shorts today.
If you look at that way, that would be your way of MM. It seems preverse to want the market to go against an existing trade to profit in a new trade unless you have some strong indicators telling you that is going to happen. If the indications are the market is about to turn, why wouldn't you want to close out your existing position for b/e or small loss knowing a bigger loss is coming.

GREED will kill your account.
  • #527
  • Jul 18, 2008 9:52pm Jul 18, 2008 9:52pm
"1. Have you considered a modified anti-Martingale strategy, that, maybe not doubling up after a loser, at least add on more to a regular postion?"

Could you be more precise because for me doubling or adding is the same??


"2. Assuming some sort of fine tuning to enter a trade, do you also fine tune the entries for the 2nd and 3rd hedge or do you just enter automatically when price hits the +/-.50 area and +/-.75 or .80 area?"

I said that depending on speed i can wait a little bit before entering for exemple 0,60 instaed of 0,50 if we go through 0,50 very quickly. Sometimes it makes me miss the moove.

"3. Is this spread of EURUSD and USDCHF qualitatively better than others, let's say, in futures, e.g., Gold, Corn, Cattle, etc.?"


Hard to answer to this question depending on what you are looking for.
i would say my first spread between european futures was the best before banks put robots.
  • #528
  • Jul 18, 2008 9:55pm Jul 18, 2008 9:55pm
Spieler, I also trade the eurostoxx50, is there a way you can hedge trading this?, could I send you a PM if you would have any information.
  • #529
  • Jul 19, 2008 6:09am Jul 19, 2008 6:09am
Quoting spieler
Ok this time some light must be added.


If you keep the position ON , Let say on monday you are in short at +0.25% end of day i s+0.35%.
On tuesday ( my graphs are GMT) you start th ehedge at 0% but in your head you know that you are +0.35% , you HAVE TO wait again +0.25% and not only +0.10% more , doing that you minimize again the risk and th emoney management.

.
spieler-

Please could you clarify something. In the situation you describe above, if you were waiting for a +0.25% move and that day it only went to say +0.15% obviously you would still wait. Then the next day it also does not go +0.25% but say only +0.15% again. Would you still then wait for the next day and for a move of +0.25% IN ONE DAY or would you add togather the two smaller moves of +0.15% and say because the total movement was now +0.30% from your last entry it is time to enter again otherwise the market price may be moving too far away from your position to effectively average down? Hope I am explaining my question clearly enough.
  • #530
  • Jul 19, 2008 7:10am Jul 19, 2008 7:10am
Spieler nice system... which time you trade this strategy? ASIAN, USA, EUROPE?
Is the % changing/reseting at a new day 0:00GMT ?
regards
  • #531
  • Jul 19, 2008 7:42am Jul 19, 2008 7:42am
hi pipsalot,

you're welcome.
glad you like it.

joseph

Quoting pipsalot
Thanks for the great indicator!
  • #532
  • Jul 19, 2008 9:25am Jul 19, 2008 9:25am
I just realized something... My broker doesn't allow multiple open trades on the same pair. So that when I want to add a second lot, it is added to the same trade I had earlier and averaged. So this may cause some confusion when using this strategy, because I can't really see the individual profit loss from each lot but instead the overall profit and loss of the entire position. Any idea on how to get around this?
  • #533
  • Jul 19, 2008 9:42am Jul 19, 2008 9:42am
Quoting daytrading
that sould be the current position(s)
I have a question about your chart, daytrading. On the USDCHF, for example, you have 3 long trades at 1.0102, 1.0052, and 1.0032. If I add up those numbers and divide by 3, I get 1.0062, but your average says 1.0077. Can you please explain how you get your average? I suck at math, so it must be something very simple which I overlooked.
  • #534
  • Jul 19, 2008 10:06am Jul 19, 2008 10:06am
Quoting pipsalot
I just realized something... My broker doesn't allow multiple open trades on the same pair. So that when I want to add a second lot, it is added to the same trade I had earlier and averaged. So this may cause some confusion when using this strategy, because I can't really see the individual profit loss from each lot but instead the overall profit and loss of the entire position. Any idea on how to get around this?
Hmmm. That's damn inconvenient. Still if you can remember what the original trades were, you can enter offsetting trades to "close" them even if they're no longer broken out as separate trades.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #535
  • Jul 19, 2008 10:24am Jul 19, 2008 10:24am
Quoting stevegee58
Hmmm. That's damn inconvenient. Still if you can remember what the original trades were, you can enter offsetting trades to "close" them even if they're no longer broken out as separate trades.

Thanks! I thought of another option, which would be to just indicate the lots I take on a chart and close them based on the percentage value of the EURCHF. This would result in slightly different profit/loss values in the middle of a trade (because my lots are not displayed individually but as an average) but once all lots are closed it should come out the same, I think.
  • #536
  • Jul 19, 2008 10:36am Jul 19, 2008 10:36am
I see a lot of talk about watching the divergence of EURCHF on a daily basis. I understand that this strategy carries over the previous days divergence to influence the current days divergence. So if i entered a trade yesterday long at -20% EURCHF and it closes yesterday at the same -20% divergence. Then today the pair's divergence is recalculated at +5% divergence. If I'm understanding this correctly will I carry over yesterdays divergence, knowing in my head that the total divergence for my position over the past 2 days is -15%?

I just have one question for anyone who understands this better than me:

I know Spieler uses prorealtime charts that calculate the divergence for EURCHF (as well as USDCHF and EURUSD). His charts calculate the divergence on a daily basis. So of course if he gets in a trade from the previous day he'll carry over the divergence levels to influence the current days numbers. On MT4, the indicators that Swingman has created, do this already, am i wrong? The indicators constantly have a % divergence...is this calculated on a daily basis? Or is it a running total? I'm confused??

If the spielerhedge divergence indicators do recalculate the % divergence on a daily basis, where do I draw the line for the previous day close and current days open? If they don't, where could I get these % divergence numbers calculated on a daily basis?

Thanks in advance
Graham
  • #537
  • Jul 19, 2008 9:20pm Jul 19, 2008 9:20pm
Spieler, I'm seeing different percentages everywhere. On CNBC, I see +24%. On SpielerHedge Divergence v4, I'm seeing +9%. On Spieler Indicator, I'm seeing +85%.

Which one do you recommend me to use? Plus, it's on weekend so results could vary.
  • #538
  • Jul 20, 2008 3:30am Jul 20, 2008 3:30am
Dear Spieler,

I think what Visual One meant by Martingale was not just to add the same size spread and double the position but actually put on a larger position for the 2nd spread and an even larger position for the third spread, i.e. if your initial EURUSD lot size was 1 lot, so when you sold the 2nd lot you'd sell 2 lots, and so on. My question: why do you always have to be concerned with the % movement of EURCHF when you can figure out exactly the amount of pip movement and simply keep track of the pip movements to manage the trade?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #539
  • Jul 20, 2008 5:51am Jul 20, 2008 5:51am
Quoting Vfforexlee
Spieler, I'm seeing different percentages everywhere. On CNBC, I see +24%. On SpielerHedge Divergence v4, I'm seeing +9%. On Spieler Indicator, I'm seeing +85%.

Which one do you recommend me to use? Plus, it's on weekend so results could vary.
It may depend on your broker's time settings. My broker uses GMT+0, and the values I'm seeing on SpielerHedge and Spieler Indicator are about the same as the values on CNBC. Also, check the ShiftDays_ForReference setting on the SpielerHedge indicator (I think it should be 1 if you want to use today's opening price as reference) and the daysback setting on the Spieler Indicator (should be 0).
  • #540
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:16am Jul 20, 2008 10:16am
Nah, still have the same default settings. It could be my broker's time that could caused the problem. Guess I have to look at cnbc.com to check the real percentage change.

BTW, wouldn't it be better to wait until price percentage goes to 50% and then buy or sell from there?
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