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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #301
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:07am Feb 8, 2007 2:07am
I hope Ya'll took the CHF trade. Currently up 50 pips :--)

EUR looks okay to short... but i'm a little suspicious of it....
  • #302
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:14am Feb 8, 2007 2:14am
i love this system and currently i'm using Heikin Ashi Candlestick ...
check it out guys ...
it looks really nice on 4 hour chart ...

loved the system Phill
  • #303
  • Feb 8, 2007 2:28am Feb 8, 2007 2:28am
8:30 gmt

I took 34 pips out of it.... but had to wait long enough ........ the eur/yen just left a large upward tail/shadow and is forming head and shoulders? lots of room for profit..... take a look



Quoting turk87
I hope Ya'll took the CHF trade. Currently up 50 pips :--)

EUR looks okay to short... but i'm a little suspicious of it....
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #304
  • Feb 8, 2007 6:46am Feb 8, 2007 6:46am
Phillip,

After learning the importance of 'Tails' A doubt has come to me about trend lines(I am a Master of doubts. Pl. bear with me and my questions).

When you draw trend lines, is it wise to take Tails also into consideration or is it better if we ignore Talis and draw the trend line to the 'Body' of the candles ONLY. Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #305
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:01am Feb 8, 2007 7:01am
Hi Phillip,
Here is a "Tails' event I am following.
GMT 12:55.
GBP/USD has already crossed down 200 EMA and sitting on its trendline.
MACD just crossed to negetive side. I see two alternatives to go short:

(i) Go short once the trendline is broken to downside or
(ii) Wait for the trend line is broken to downside by a 'Tail' and the price pulls back to trend line and then, only then, enter short.

Your comment please.
Thanks.
-Chandra
(GMT 12:55).
  • #306
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:03am Feb 8, 2007 7:03am
13:00 GMT

Hi Philip,

I think I'm getting a pretty good handle on your system and would like to continue filtering until I only have the best trades. By the chart attached GBP/USD, you mentioned yesterday that it was close to the SMA and you wouldn't normally trade (ignore the fact that it followed the trend we had "hoped" for, not to mention interest rate news came out).

So, am I to understand that in this particular case (I've seen it several times), Your risk vs profit ratio was very low since the 200 EMA was very close and that's what you would have used to determine your ratio? Or was it more of that since the 200 EMA was just below the trading point, it had a good chance of bouncing up (was resistance, now support) as shown? Or is it a combination of both factors?

Thanks in advance, this system is working very well for me..... and I really appreciate all the time you put into answers everyones questions.
Attached Image
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #307
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:04am Feb 8, 2007 7:04am
Does anybody see a head and shoulder on us jp?
  • #308
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:10am Feb 8, 2007 7:10am
Quoting pipmy4x
Does anybody see a head and shoulder on us jp?

I can see one sholder and a head
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #309
  • Feb 8, 2007 7:57am Feb 8, 2007 7:57am
Quoting mandoaddam
I can see one sholder and a head
This sytem is unbelievable.
Thank you Phillip.
Since last night, about 10pm Pacific time (Vancouver time) I made 125 pips.
EUR/US 27 pips
GBP/US 51 pips
CHF/US 20 pips
US/JPY 27 pips
Started trading Phillips system Feb. 1st, no losses.
Josef
  • #310
  • Feb 8, 2007 9:11am Feb 8, 2007 9:11am
I could not be invoved in any trading today. EurUsd I would have passed. Not smooth setup but the Gbp gave a sitter. Trendline test 4 times, 2 little tails and MACD confirm(lower high) with first prof target 89SMA(+25 pips) and 200SMA (+90 pips).

There was enough pips to breakeven or even made some down to the 89SMA when MACD gave signal. The worst for me would have been breakeven. So you could take the odds on for a downmove.

As you can see. Wait for it. No need to rush it. There is plenty good trades.
Attached Image
  • #311
  • Feb 8, 2007 9:17am Feb 8, 2007 9:17am
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,

After learning the importance of 'Tails' A doubt has come to me about trend lines(I am a Master of doubts. Pl. bear with me and my questions).

When you draw trend lines, is it wise to take Tails also into consideration or is it better if we ignore Talis and draw the trend line to the 'Body' of the candles ONLY. Thanks.
-Chandra
I like to draw it to both. Just for me to know if they do it what can I expect.
  • #312
  • Feb 8, 2007 9:28am Feb 8, 2007 9:28am
Quoting DireXiv
13:00 GMT

Hi Philip,

I think I'm getting a pretty good handle on your system and would like to continue filtering until I only have the best trades. By the chart attached GBP/USD, you mentioned yesterday that it was close to the SMA and you wouldn't normally trade (ignore the fact that it followed the trend we had "hoped" for, not to mention interest rate news came out).

So, am I to understand that in this particular case (I've seen it several times), Your risk vs profit ratio was very low since the 200 EMA was very close and that's what you would have used to determine your ratio? Or was it more of that since the 200 EMA was just below the trading point, it had a good chance of bouncing up (was resistance, now support) as shown? Or is it a combination of both factors?

Thanks in advance, this system is working very well for me..... and I really appreciate all the time you put into answers everyones questions.


The tails that formed against the trendline and the MACD lower high suggested a downmove. There was about 25-30 pips to the 89SMA which could act as support. The risk reward ratio was 1:1 to the 89SMA so to take the odds on and set stoploss to breakeven the moment 20-25 pips gain was achieved you could sit back and give your position the chance to go below the 89SMA and take the ride or being stopped out at breakeven and then wait for the trend continuation signal of the MACD and the go long above the trendline. Both ways you would have been on the winning side.
  • #313
  • Feb 8, 2007 9:37am Feb 8, 2007 9:37am
If you like the hydrinaline to pump you could take these tails on when they occur at support and resistance. Just be aware of the MA's.

See chart. Stoploss just a few pips above 89SMA. Quick 20 pips
Attached Image
  • #314
  • Feb 8, 2007 9:37am Feb 8, 2007 9:37am
Hi Phillip,

I missed your last lesson on tsunami and, probably, made some mistakes in the last EU swing from high to low. I just want to share my notes hopefully they can be useful to others viewing the thread:

1). Last night as price reversed from new high (1.3025) my impression was it bounced from 200SMA and I shorted the pair at 1.3008. My stop was placed at 1.3028, just 3 pips above the recent high. Target price was 1.2971. R:R ratio looked o.k. to me.
2). It turned out euro made a temporary pullback before the Asian session and started gaining again.
3). I wished I read your notes on tsunami as this is what I was hit with, or, rather, the last wave. Just 1 pip mattered! How many times do we find ourselves with such vexing situation? Alas, too late!
4). Since I found my mistake, realized that it is NOW the time to short and ride the wave, I found myself facing another dilemma - price is below 200SMA but still above major price level 1.300. What should I do? Should I wait for the breach of this level?
5). I placed a sell-stop order with my broker at 1.2993 only to see a small gain in the long run.

I atone. But can you confirm what plays a major role if you would have faced similar dilemma - 200SMA or price level? From where to start?

Thanks, Phillip, and hope these mistakes could help me and others improve trading style.
  • #315
  • Feb 8, 2007 9:50am Feb 8, 2007 9:50am
Quoting tamkras
Hi Phillip,

I missed your last lesson on tsunami and, probably, made some mistakes in the last EU swing from high to low. I just want to share my notes hopefully they can be useful to others viewing the thread:

1). Last night as price reversed from new high (1.3025) my impression was it bounced from 200SMA and I shorted the pair at 1.3008. My stop was placed at 1.3028, just 3 pips above the recent high. Target price was 1.2971. R:R ratio looked o.k. to me.
2). It turned out euro made a temporary pullback before the Asian session and started gaining again.
3). I wished I read your notes on tsunami as this is what I was hit with, or, rather, the last wave. Just 1 pip mattered! How many times do we find ourselves with such vexing situation? Alas, too late!
4). Since I found my mistake, realized that it is NOW the time to short and ride the wave, I found myself facing another dilemma - price is below 200SMA but still above major price level 1.300. What should I do? Should I wait for the breach of this level?
5). I placed a sell-stop order with my broker at 1.2993 only to see a small gain in the long run.

I atone. But can you confirm what plays a major role if you would have faced similar dilemma - 200SMA or price level? From where to start?

Thanks, Phillip, and hope these mistakes could help me and others improve trading style.

You should wait for the close ot that spesific 4 hour candle and then calculate you situation again. Never get in on motion alone. I tend to get in the moment I see the price starts to move and might miss an oppertunity till I discover to wait till the end of a candle and then look at the situation. You can already see 5 minutes before the close whether it will be worth it.

The 1.3000 was in the way so I would have passed it. Too many barriers in the way.
  • #316
  • Edited 10:23am Feb 8, 2007 9:53am | Edited 10:23am
The tsunami. Did it make sense what I said. Like to know.
  • #317
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:08am Feb 8, 2007 10:08am
hi phil,can i check with u abt the success rate for this system and how long have u been using it? is it possible to use it on shorter time frame? thanks
  • #318
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:22am Feb 8, 2007 10:22am
Quoting fxnewbie 71
hi phil,can i check with u abt the success rate for this system and how long have u been using it? is it possible to use it on shorter time frame? thanks
You can look at the charts in the document and do some backtesting and see what the success rate will be for you. I have been papertrading for two years and studying the EurUsd pricemovement and read everything I could lay my hands on so for me I have about one wrong for every ten. It is not allways the system but also the experience. I did spend at least 3 hours per day on learning as much of forex for the past 2 years. There is very little indicators I did not tried. If you keep it simple and know when to hold them and when to sold them you will bo OK.

You must have a plan and you must trade that plan
  • #319
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:27am Feb 8, 2007 10:27am
[quote=Phillip Nel;211660]You can look at the charts in the document and do some backtesting and see what the success rate will be for you. I have been papertrading for two years and studying the EurUsd pricemovement and read everything I could lay my hands on so for me I have about one wrong for every ten. It is not allways the system but also the experience. I did spend at least 3 hours per day on learning as much of forex for the past 2 years. There is very little indicators I did not tried. If you keep it simple and know when to hold them and when to sold them you will bo OK.

You must have a plan and you must trade that plan[/quote
Wow! u r good phil! u r almost 90% right! can u say that u have found the holy grail? have u try this system on other pairs? like Gbp/Jpy? if so,whats the settings for macd? thanks!
  • #320
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:40am Feb 8, 2007 10:40am
[quote=fxnewbie 71;211669]
Quoting Phillip Nel
You can look at the charts in the document and do some backtesting and see what the success rate will be for you. I have been papertrading for two years and studying the EurUsd pricemovement and read everything I could lay my hands on so for me I have about one wrong for every ten. It is not allways the system but also the experience. I did spend at least 3 hours per day on learning as much of forex for the past 2 years. There is very little indicators I did not tried. If you keep it simple and know when to hold them and when to sold them you will bo OK.

You must have a plan and you must trade that plan[/quote
Wow! u r good phil! u r almost 90% right! can u say that u have found the holy grail? have u try this system on other pairs? like Gbp/Jpy? if so,whats the settings for macd? thanks!
Setting for MACD the same.

Out of the nine right deals not all gave positive pips as I set my stoploss to breakeven to give the position a chance to mature and then I would say about 2-3 endup breakeven. The rest give 40-80 pips.
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