No Brainer Trades

Quoting ozziedave

Disliked

Hi BRV,

I thought I caught this reversal on the USDJPY but it didn't work out very well. On the 4hr chart I've identified what appears to be a strong resistance area between 105.68 and 105.90. The fib also shows the 50% retrace of the down move at 105.72. As price comes into the area I dropped down to the 1hr chart. Price goes to the top of the resistance band and then we get a red bearish candle. The next candle appears to be bearish also and I enter at 105.57 (lower red line). Price gets down to 105.43 but never really gains any momentum and starts to retrace. I think it's just a small re test and then price will drop from there. Price keeps going up and takes out my SL at 105.87 for a 30 pip loss. I thought this was going to be a text book reversal point but it turned out to be one resistance level too soon. How do you determine if you will enter a position when you get to a R or S level? I assume you just don't enter blindly when price gets to a S or R level. Are there any tips or advise you could share that would help identify or qualify turning points? The other question I have about this set up is it seems to go against everything you learn about trend trading. This is clearly an up move with higher highs and higher lows. Wouldn't it be a better set up to wait for the pullback to a support area and take a long position?

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

Hi - this post stuck out for me because this was the last thing I had my sights set on for the day. You didnt miss anything. Oil and equity markets (specifically oil) were moving strongly in a positive direction for the $ vs yen. What ultimately ended up happening was many resistance levels on the way up the ladder getting blown out by some massive buying, fueled by fundamental/speculative sentiment.

But the most important of all these levels, 107.10, was the was that ended up sticking (chart attached). Buying on this pair on a day like today is more or less a fluke, and one of those things you just have to be prepared for. The daily range on yen is over 225 pips - usually when you get to that point it will reverse. My first short position was somewhere around 106.24, which is around where we started to see the unexpected buying today. SPX was at a halt and oil selling seemed to be drying up for the day so I thought it was safer to enter, though I will admit I still had some reservations.

I would prefer to catch these reversal points in the direction of the trend, but sometimes, you just dont know if the trend is over or its going to continue. But waiting to catch the trend all the time would have also cost me a lot of money, as I make a lot of it on countertrend or reversal moves.

USDJPY broke some rules today based moreso on fundamentals than technical conditions, but on any average day, levels like 106.24, 106.68 will hold. It just happens and something you need to be prepared for just in case. Either way, if you look at a 5min chart you will see that price slowed down around these points. But massive orders coming in allowed to move higher.

Ignored

Quoting Dukeman900

Disliked

Ozzidave,

I use the following to determine the trend.

Major trend, look at the monthly and weekly chart.
Main trend ... daily chart
Intermediate trend 4hr chart.

look to see if the chart is make higher swing tops and higer swing bottoms in any time frame and the trend is up.

I put yesterdays high and low on my chart so in a down trend if the market moves above this line I know the daily trend has changed to up. If it goes below this line then I know it is a contiunation of the daily trend down. This helps keep you focused on the main trend in close time frames.

Remember that the daily trend can be down while the weekly trend is up. So picking a daily low is buying with the major trend.

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

Hi everyone,

I'm starting this thread for the benefit of all for trade setups with 90%+- accuracy and reliability. When I say this I'm talking about posting trades with obvious levels of heavy support and resistance where not getting in seems like the dumbest thing to do. For the Negative Nancy's out there please dont scorn me on the 90% accuracy figure. With most of these trades you could atleast scalp for 20 pips, others have paid out hundreds of pips.

If you feel you have something please post but make sure your confidence level is way above average.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

THREAD PERFORMANCE - last updated 5/14/08 - 7/17/08 (see notes!)

Total pips = +3,737
(29 trades - average +128.86 pips per trade)

5/14/2008 USD/CAD 0.9986 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -16 Max Pips +80
5/14/2008 AUD/USD 0.929 Long Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +250
5/14/2008 EUR/JPY 162.9 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -4 Max Pips +164
5/16/2008 AUD/USD 0.9471 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -4 Max Pips +30
5/16/2008 AUD/USD 0.95 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -18 Max Pips +20
5/16/2008 USD/JPY 104.04 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -1 Max Pips +21
5/18/2008 NZD/USD 0.7745 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -3 Max Pips +39
5/19/2008 USD/CAD 0.993 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -4 Max Pips +19
5/21/2008 EUR/USD 1.5685 Short Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +55
5/22/2008 USD/JPY 102.74 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -1 Max Pips +250
5/22/2008 AUD/USD 0.9648 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -5 Max Pips +250
5/27/2008 EUR/JPY 164.8 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -8 Max Pips +169
5/29/2008 EUR/USD 1.5632 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -23 Max Pips +37
5/29/2008 USD/CHF 1.0424 Short Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +65
5/29/2008 EUR/USD 1.5547 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -2 Max Pips +41
5/29/2008 USD/JPY 1.0437 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -8 Max Pips +15
6/4/2008 USD/JPY 104.66 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -12 Max Pips +176
6/4/2008 EUR/USD 1.548 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -3 Max Pips +96
6/5/2008 EUR/USD 1.5365 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -2 Max Pips +250
6/5/2008 USD/CHF 1.017 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -23 Max Pips +250
6/9/2008 EUR/USD 1.584 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -1 Max Pips +250
6/10/2008 EUR/USD 1.5484 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -1 Max Pips +51
*7/7/2008 USD/JPY 107.73 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -2 Max Pips +250
7/8/2008 USD/JPY 106.42 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -17 Max Pips +123
7/8/2008 AUD/USD 0.9501 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -25 Max Pips +250
7/15/2008 EUR/USD 1.6000 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -37 Max Pips +200 - in progress
7/15/2008 USD/CHF 1.0021 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -10 Max Pips +166 - in progress
7/16/2008 GBP/USD 1.9960 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -1 Max Pips +78 - in progress
7/16/2008 EUR/USD 1.5800 Long Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +92 - in progress

Notes: All trades on this list posted before they occurred and are the "official" posted trades only. I did not post stop losses or static take profits for any of the trades, as market conditions change all the time and our rules for trade management dictates that partial profits be taken regularly at certain market obstacles. Before you continue, I encourage you to read through the thread on this topic in order to avoid any confusion in regards to our method. Entry levels posted above are based on my personal entries but fit within the framework of what was discussed in regard to each one as they occurred.

A static stop loss of -40 pips and maximum pips profited at +250 pips is assumed on all of these trades. Spreads are not taken into account for any of these trades as they vary from broker to broker, and trades were either entered or avoided in accordance with our rules. The “max drawdown” column is the maximum number of pips each trade went negative before reaching the number in the “max pips” column. The "max pips" column is the maximum number of pips each trade produced before getting stopped out at a -40 pip stop loss. Trades and other information posted here are for discussion purposes only! We help each other! Enjoy!

*entry modified in later posts

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here are some on the way or in progress:

USD/JPY short, 105.70 to 105.60
hit it 3 times and made a nice bounce everytime, expecting the same to happen today or tomorrow if price makes it up there. Shorting lower level resistance at 104.44 is paying out about 25 pips right now.

USD/CHF short, 1.0630 to 1.0620
high of the recent s/r levels. Right now its bouncing off of 1.0600 resistance giving a good 30pip payout

GBP/USD long, 1.9362 to 1.9388
this one is in progress but here for demonstration...about 40 pips so far. Another opportunity for a long is coming at 1.9337

Thanks, please keep them coming. I'm generally very busy but if I have the time to post I'll be sure to.

Ignored

Quoting forextrend

Disliked

What strategy are you using for your trades?

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

Good way to put it - there are usually just trends within trends, it all depends on the timeframe you're observing. The major trends are the ones which hold the most impact, and you'll usually see the best reaction.

Ignored

Quoting ozziedave

Disliked

Hi BRV,

Yes, I know there are trends within trends. I was just asking how you personally determine the trend. Do you take into consideration trend direction when you trade and what time frame do you use to determine the trend direction when you enter a position. I know about higher highs, higher lows..the U/j trade was actually in an up trend on the 4hr chart, if we go by higher highs and higher lows. That's what confuses me, every one determines the trend in a different way?

Ignored

Quoting djambazov84

Disliked

Seems to me that I totally missed on the news today and was not able to detect USD strength. Any suggestions for a reliable streaming up to date free news source like bloomberg for free (java applet maybe?). That chopped me to pieces...lesson learned but looks like the forex market is not gonna go for US bank strength tomorrow. I hope that you guys are still riding on the usd weakness.

Ignored

Quoting BANDA

Disliked

Hi BRV ...... How are you? Thank you so much for your altruistic endeavor..... ...... to refine the trading.........Do you see on usd/chf 4H short opportunity?


Thank you for your insight and help!

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

Hey Dave - Sorry if my first reply was too simple minded here I dont mean to insult your intelligence in any way (I'm pretty tired this week) - you basically just have to be on the lookout for these diagonal trendlines as guides for reversal points when they coincide with horizontal support and resistance.

I know what you're saying and it can be hard to judge when a new trend is underway - I just sometimes breakdown to smaller timeframes, and look for existing trends to bust. For example, on a 15 min chart on JPY, it was in a significant downtrend, before hitting support at 103.80 appx., and then around 104.30 it finally broke through the downward sloping trendline. Just using it as an example but you can view it from multiple timeframes.

And then when the trendline clearly busted you could easily say your downtrend is over for the corrective move up which went for a couple hundred pips. You can easily see when the trend strength is fading as well as price consolidates and starts to bunch up. The reversal levels will hold though as either corrective moves or reversal points. Best thing to do sometimes is just follow the macro trend and try to nail these switchpoints.

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

Just to make it a little easier.

So long as your risk/reward is 3:1, you only need to win 3 out of 10 trades to turn a profit.

For example, lets assume 10 trades with a 60 pip take profit, with a -20 pip stop loss and trading 5 contracts where 7 were losers and 3 were winners.

60 * 7 = 180 pips * 5 contracts = $9,000

-20 * 3 = -140 pips * 5 contracts = $-7,000

Net them out and you get a profit of $2,000

Its 101 stuff I realize but it doesn't hurt to have a reminder sometimes....

Ignored

Quoting SmokeyMcPip

Disliked

Hi BRV,

I've got a couple of questions if you've got a sec....

1. Thanks a lot for the GBPUSD post earlier! I understand the intersection of the diagonal trendline with the S+R would be a good point to enter as you've covered it earlier in the thread. Does that mean you'd disregard the horizontal S+R inbetween though? Would you just approach it with more caution whilst waiting for the price potentially hitting the crossover point of the TL and S+R? If it does hit at an intersection would that be a 'no brainer' trade?

2. I was wondering what made you favour 167.78 over 168.00-168.11 in the EJ yesturday? You mentioned you'd been watching that spot too, and Manistra obviously nailed it and got exactely what he'd set out to - great trade by the way! I was in on an SEL at 168.05.....and very rapidly out at 168.30. Looking at the chart, the higher level had acted as S+R far more often the the lower. Was the over abuse the reason to favour the lower one? I'd be interested to understand the reasoning if thats okay.....I seem to struggle to pick solid levels on the yens more than other pairs!

Hope thats all clear....sorry for all the questions lumped together!

Ignored

Quoting Merlyn

Disliked

I think you have your 7 & 3 the wrong way round, but the point is well made, thank you.

Ignored