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  • #1,221
  • Edited 1:16pm Jul 17, 2008 12:46pm | Edited 1:16pm
Looks like this one didn't work out too well

Looks like the next EUR/JPY level to watch may be 168.12. If price turns around go long from there?

Also, short USD/JPY at 106.80.
Edit: Clearly this trade was not a winner. I guess I should wait for the dust to settle when price is moving rapidly.

Any thoughts on these trades?

Quoting manistra
Hi

I am going to short EURJPY around 167.78 (Of course if retrace does not happen earlier at
50% fib. level.) That level showed nice reaction before. Also, it is a weekly support level. Target will be 20-30 pips.
  • #1,222
  • Jul 17, 2008 1:32pm Jul 17, 2008 1:32pm
This move is absolutely beautiful. Of all the inside days only the loonie gave a head fake before tanking. Every inside day has now broken out, oil has blown out the TL, the USD is flying high today. With no new major data this week can't help but see more of the same coming.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,223
  • Jul 17, 2008 1:44pm Jul 17, 2008 1:44pm
I loaded up on gbp/jpy shorts at 213.50. I didn't even think about it so I guess it is a no brainer.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,224
  • Jul 17, 2008 1:53pm Jul 17, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I loaded up on gbp/jpy shorts at 213.50. I didn't even think about it so I guess it is a no brainer.
Same here. Where are you looking at for t/p level?
  • #1,225
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:07pm Jul 17, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Same here. Where are you looking at for t/p level?
I'll probably take half at the hourly 5sma. I'll reevaluate current conditions for the rest.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,226
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:09pm Jul 17, 2008 2:09pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I loaded up on gbp/jpy shorts at 213.50. I didn't even think about it so I guess it is a no brainer.
Missed this one unfortunately, but is it worth going long at 212.88 - 213.03?
  • #1,227
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:14pm Jul 17, 2008 2:14pm
Quoting Gregus83
Missed this one unfortunately, but is it worth going long at 212.88 - 213.03?
I wouldn't touch that trade with OPM...
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,228
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:22pm Jul 17, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I wouldn't touch that trade with OPM...
Always learning here, what's your rationale? Too close to previous price action? Not enough evidence to back up the trade?

Sorry to be a pain.

P.S. What do you mean by OPM? (EDIT - I see - "other people's money" )
  • #1,229
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:27pm Jul 17, 2008 2:27pm
Quoting Gregus83
Always learning here, what's your rationale? Too close to previous price action? Not enough evidence to back up the trade?

Sorry to be a pain.

P.S. What do you mean by OPM? (EDIT - I see - "other people's money" )
Without getting too complicated, just look at previous price action and 213.5/214 has been MASSIVE support turned into resistance.

Fundamentally, this renewed optimism in equities is based on a couple of good earnings reports. It stinks like a bear market rally for sure.

Combining technical and fundamental reasons I need a break of 214 before I can consider followthru on any rallies.

OPM = Other Peoples Money
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,230
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:30pm Jul 17, 2008 2:30pm
That NZD/USD short turned out to be nice, I just entered a long at 0.7595. There was a very very nice risk:reward on the last kiwi short, and I don't expect quite as big a move from here. I was a few pips late as I wanted to buy on the 61.8% retracement at 0.7587, but I was a bit late. Stochs are OS on 30 mn, Hourly, and 4H TFs. Worth another 0.25% risking 34 pips.
  • #1,231
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:30pm Jul 17, 2008 2:30pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi everyone,

Just a reminder that tomorrow is option expiration on many cash settled ccy options.

Last month on this day we saw AUD break into new highs, EUR popping out of a local high, JPY flooring it to below 103.50, and CHF breaking below 1.0450. This is one day of the month I use a lot of caution, as many of the rules dictated with support and resistance levels tend to be broken.

In keeping with the trend, a day like option ex day is a good day for buying or selling pullbacks and trading with the trend, especially during the London/US crossover. I would also only use this strategy if price is falling in between major support and resistance to begin with. It can be a very lucrative or destructive day depending on how you play your cards.

I took a look at some data for ccy options today, and scrutinizing some possiblilities for tomorrow the overall bias seems bearish-dollar. This isnt to say I have unseen barrier option data I'm missing out on, which is what I would really need to make a reliable forecast.

But just looking across american, euro style options and relating open interest I'm seeing JPY having downside pressure to 106.30 all the way down to 103.10, less pressure upside; the critical level upside being from 108.70 all the way up to 111.11.

In regards to barrier/binary options, just looking at a probable zone for price movement (based soley on my own judgement and chart analysis), I would speculate up to 110.50 upside (the most significant being appx. 108.70) and 105.50 downside (with 106.30 holding some significance).

For other pairs, I dont have too much info on right now but hopefully you can take a look at the JPY chart and see what I'm doing here and use your own judgement to follow along.

Again, major players are going to be looking at standard option data/critical levels as usual.

Options are not a widely discussed issue on this or many other forums, but they should be becuase they unquestionably move the market in some big ways. Just look for key levels to get broken on these days. Its the same thing as what we do on a day in and day out basis except in reverse.

Volatility is the key word for this day. The simple fact of the matter is that you do NOT know exactly what is going to happen. Support and resistance levels DO hold for pips on these days, but are less predictable. Pip ranges can be generally a little larger than usual, anywhere from 150 to 200+ on majors. Other times the day is less of an event; like anything else in nature it all varies.

Binary and barrier options are OTC products and you wont have exact data, but you can oftentimes guess what level price is headed for looking at american and euro style options as well as major support and resistance ranges once the daily trend is defined. 7am to 12pm EST I have found to be the most fluid times where price makes a run for it.

I haven't posted much info on the topic in the past, but I encourge you to Google the topic and read up on it as much as you can. Here is just a little info to get you started, but there is a ton more available out there.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&r...+binary+option

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&r...barrier+option

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&r...A*&q=fx+option

Some basic on the Phil exchange
http://www.phlx.com/market/WorldCurrencyOptions.asp?
Futures
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/index.html
I've been trying to make heads or tails of this, probably without much luck though. I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to options. I "think" I know what I'm seeing, but I don't really know how to interpret the data in regards to how it will play out tomorrow.

On the CME site, I see more longs than shorts just below today's lows of 1.5785. On Phlx, there seems to be significant call volume at 1.5700.
Am I reading this correctly?

At the risk of pushing your generosity to the limits, would mind giving a little more detail on how you look at the call/put strikes in relation to how the day might work.
  • #1,232
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:35pm Jul 17, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting ssteiner87
That NZD/USD short turned out to be nice, I just entered a long at 0.7595. There was a very very nice risk:reward on the last kiwi short, and I don't expect quite as big a move from here. I was a few pips late as I wanted to buy on the 61.8% retracement at 0.7587, but I was a bit late. Stochs are OS on 30 mn, Hourly, and 4H TFs. Worth another 0.25% risking 34 pips.

Congrats dude I've been waiting for this one all week. I'm playing it a bit different. I'm going to hold my shorts from 7720 and add more on any ST retracement. I'm going for the fences on this one, looking for 7350 area.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,233
  • Jul 17, 2008 2:52pm Jul 17, 2008 2:52pm
very strong resistance around 214.00 level. daily has a nice pin bar but it is not in the best place as far as price action is concerned. However a lot of pips could have been made buying the break above the pin bar targeting above mentioned resistance. I managed to miss this trade as my money was in a short euro trade. Watching for a chance to get short, hopefully close to 214.00
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  • #1,234
  • Jul 17, 2008 4:22pm Jul 17, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long AUD/USD 0.9668 - 0.9663

This is the most significant recent high before this last AUD uptrend, also coinciding with a .50 retracement. Should be a good reaction when price touches it.

Hi,

just remainder if someone forgot this opportunity,
it is possible that it can be triggered in next hours. (if is not too late)
  • #1,235
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:47pm Jul 17, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Congrats dude I've been waiting for this one all week. I'm playing it a bit different. I'm going to hold my shorts from 7720 and add more on any ST retracement. I'm going for the fences on this one, looking for 7350 area.

Nice man, you're in a good position. Just outta curiosity, what area(s) are you looking to take profit at?
  • #1,236
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:48pm Jul 17, 2008 5:48pm
Hi BRV,

I thought I caught this reversal on the USDJPY but it didn't work out very well. On the 4hr chart I've identified what appears to be a strong resistance area between 105.68 and 105.90. The fib also shows the 50% retrace of the down move at 105.72. As price comes into the area I dropped down to the 1hr chart. Price goes to the top of the resistance band and then we get a red bearish candle. The next candle appears to be bearish also and I enter at 105.57 (lower red line). Price gets down to 105.43 but never really gains any momentum and starts to retrace. I think it's just a small re test and then price will drop from there. Price keeps going up and takes out my SL at 105.87 for a 30 pip loss. I thought this was going to be a text book reversal point but it turned out to be one resistance level too soon. How do you determine if you will enter a position when you get to a R or S level? I assume you just don't enter blindly when price gets to a S or R level. Are there any tips or advise you could share that would help identify or qualify turning points? The other question I have about this set up is it seems to go against everything you learn about trend trading. This is clearly an up move with higher highs and higher lows. Wouldn't it be a better set up to wait for the pullback to a support area and take a long position?
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  • #1,237
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:39pm Jul 17, 2008 7:39pm
I use this for first time today and I am make pips. This is good system. Thank you Mr. Valentine. My english not so good. I soory.

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My english not so good. I soory.
  • #1,238
  • Jul 17, 2008 9:41pm Jul 17, 2008 9:41pm
gbp/jpy is finding support at the top of the recent channel as seen on the 4hr chart posted below. The top of the channel is also the 23.6% fib level of the move from 207.97 to 213 59. If it continues to fall 211.00 should provide support. Good call by texasforex earlier
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  • #1,239
  • Jul 17, 2008 9:46pm Jul 17, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting c-note
gbp/jpy is finding support at the top of the recent channel as seen on the 4hr chart posted below. The top of the channel is also the 23.6% fib level of the move from 207.97 to 213 59. If it continues to fall 211.00 should provide support. Good call by texasforex earlier
I like that one, but I think I like 210.25 (+/-) even better. Both areas should work very well.
  • #1,240
  • Jul 18, 2008 12:39am Jul 18, 2008 12:39am
gbp/jpy still sitting on top of the channel at 212.20 level.More yen weakness or time for some retracement? hard to tell right now.
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