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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #441
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:33am Jul 17, 2008 6:33am
Quoting NowAndLater
I actually don't know how to do that. I'll look into it and I might figure it out, if so I'll post the updated indicator here.
To place an alarm at any level could be easily done by inserting a horizontal line on the chart that same level and then using the MT4 alarm system to alarm that line?
  • #442
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:38am Jul 17, 2008 6:38am
steve which extras are you speaking about??
there are 3 trades with the prices given by me in real time ( you can check on the thread).

"Hi Spieler,
I have a question (please refer to the below screenshot), I started yesterday from flat position because I had a fault on my platform and was forced to close positions that you are still in place. Ok so as you can see yesterday was a good one , I entered initially long position at -0.25% and closed all at +0.25%, then I opened again a short (of course short eurusd and short usdchf) at +0.25%. Now as you can see this position has gone overnight, so my question is : To open new positions is correct to keep still into account the divergence from yesterday (0% = 1.6057) instead of today's divergence that's different ? Infact as you can see my current divergence (related to yesterday divergence) is at +0.37 % so I should wait until it goes up to +0.50% then open a new short position. Am I understand right ? "

You have always to keep in mind what s happen 1 or 2 days before you enter into a hedge trade.
If nothing happen i mean normal volatility go ahead for my percentage and in that case your entries are good.

If we had a big trend and that was the case for almost 2 days you have to be more conservative and wait more before entering as i am doing right now.
I closed at 0,25 we are at 0,30 and i am still not in .
I could have keep my pose long a little bit more that s sure but almost 3 days is enough for me.
Now i am waiting something like 0,40/0,50 before going short.

My recommandation as you are already in will be to wait 0,50 more instaed of 0,25 before entering on emore lot.
Your position is not bad but entered too early because baricentre is higher today.
You will win with it but more tomorrow or on monday i think.
  • #443
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:43am Jul 17, 2008 6:43am
There are 5 trades and they're paired up EURUSD-USDCHF except for the last one that is a USDCHF trade by itself.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #444
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:48am Jul 17, 2008 6:48am
you dont see the second image under the first one????????????with the last leg trade???????
  • #445
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:51am Jul 17, 2008 6:51am
Hi ,Spieler,
just wanted to mention that your strategy ROCKS!
have made over 5,000 usd in the last 4 days in an 10,000 demo account.....
and the DD was never greater than -15%.....
I don't say
  • #446
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:55am Jul 17, 2008 6:55am
dragost you are way too leveraged .

Even if in demo do it normally always thinking of the worst which will come one day for sure.

Anyway excellent performance but bad MM
  • #447
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:57am Jul 17, 2008 6:57am
Spieler,

Could you maybe give some more examples of "bad" situations and how you would handle them?
  • #448
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:00am Jul 17, 2008 7:00am
Quoting spieler
you dont see the second image under the first one????????????with the last leg trade???????
LOL, oops. My coffee hadn't been fully absorbed yet!
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #449
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:06am Jul 17, 2008 7:06am
Quoting skyline
NAL,
so do you took the same trade as I showed in my above post with screenshot ?
Yes I did
  • #450
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:10am Jul 17, 2008 7:10am
I made a lot of training on trading years ago and the more usefull think was to trade real time and let the attendants do it as well .

So if i explain now 3 months ago i had this and managed like that; Itwill be complicated for me to remember exact figures , configurations and state of mind of the market at this time ( yes the market has a mind, silly sometime).

I think it is better to do the way we do now saying on morning what i am looking for , giving entry point when i enter the market and explining how i work the position.
Dont you think so§?
I understand you want to learn fast but i dont think it will be as profitable as just following how i follow my rules and how i adapt them depending on circonstances.
  • #451
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:14am Jul 17, 2008 7:14am
Quoting spieler
I made a lot of training on trading years ago and the more usefull think was to trade real time and let the attendants do it as well .

So if i explain now 3 months ago i had this and managed like that; Itwill be complicated for me to remember exact figures , configurations and state of mind of the market at this time ( yes the market has a mind, silly sometime).

I think it is better to do the way we do now saying on morning what i am looking for , giving entry point when i enter the market and explining how i work the position.
Dont you think so§?
I understand you want to learn fast but i dont think it will be as profitable as just following how i follow my rules and how i adapt them depending on circonstances.
I like it if you would continue to do it the way you have started to up to now. Keep up the great work
  • #452
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:18am Jul 17, 2008 7:18am
Quoting spieler
steve which extras are you speaking about??
there are 3 trades with the prices given by me in real time ( you can check on the thread).

"Hi Spieler,
I have a question (please refer to the below screenshot), I started yesterday from flat position because I had a fault on my platform and was forced to close positions that you are still in place. Ok so as you can see yesterday was a good one , I entered initially long position at -0.25% and closed all at +0.25%, then I opened again a short (of course short eurusd and short usdchf) at +0.25%. Now as you can see this position has gone overnight, so my question is : To open new positions is correct to keep still into account the divergence from yesterday (0% = 1.6057) instead of today's divergence that's different ? Infact as you can see my current divergence (related to yesterday divergence) is at +0.37 % so I should wait until it goes up to +0.50% then open a new short position. Am I understand right ? "

You have always to keep in mind what s happen 1 or 2 days before you enter into a hedge trade.
If nothing happen i mean normal volatility go ahead for my percentage and in that case your entries are good.

If we had a big trend and that was the case for almost 2 days you have to be more conservative and wait more before entering as i am doing right now.
I closed at 0,25 we are at 0,30 and i am still not in .
I could have keep my pose long a little bit more that s sure but almost 3 days is enough for me.
Now i am waiting something like 0,40/0,50 before going short.

My recommandation as you are already in will be to wait 0,50 more instaed of 0,25 before entering on emore lot.
Your position is not bad but entered too early because baricentre is higher today.
You will win with it but more tomorrow or on monday i think.
ok thx a lot Spieler !

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #453
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:19am Jul 17, 2008 7:19am
Just to clarify, an earlier post alluded to the use of linear regression channels for the purpose of setting entries and exit targets. You agreed that you do this, but you haven't really said much else about it. Maybe at some point you can show more detail about this?

Does the 0.25% figure you frequently use represent, say, 2 standard deviations on an hourly chart perhaps?
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #454
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:19am Jul 17, 2008 7:19am
Quoting spieler
I made a lot of training on trading years ago and the more usefull think was to trade real time and let the attendants do it as well .

So if i explain now 3 months ago i had this and managed like that; Itwill be complicated for me to remember exact figures , configurations and state of mind of the market at this time ( yes the market has a mind, silly sometime).

I think it is better to do the way we do now saying on morning what i am looking for , giving entry point when i enter the market and explining how i work the position.
Dont you think so§?
I understand you want to learn fast but i dont think it will be as profitable as just following how i follow my rules and how i adapt them depending on circonstances.

I agree. Following your thought process has been really enlightening. I will wait patiently to see what happens next.
  • #455
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:20am Jul 17, 2008 7:20am
Quoting NowAndLater
Yes I did
Ok so we are togheter on the sideline waiting divergence to go down to +0.25% to close last position opened
  • #456
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:22am Jul 17, 2008 7:22am
Quoting skyline
Ok so we are togheter on the sideline waiting divergence to go down to +0.25% to close last position opened
It's me and you against the world .

Someone: "Ok enough of this crap posts NAL!"
NAL: "Sry ok, this is the last one..."
  • #457
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:28am Jul 17, 2008 7:28am
Quoting NowAndLater
It's me and you against the world .

Someone: "Ok enough of this crap posts NAL!"
NAL: "Sry ok, this is the last one..."
ahahahah we'll own the world !! (I'm booking my new Ferrari car... )
  • #458
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:31am Jul 17, 2008 7:31am
"
Just to clarify, an earlier post alluded to the use of linear regression channels for the purpose of setting entries and exit targets. You agreed that you do this, but you haven't really said much else about it. Maybe at some point you can show more detail about this?

Does the 0.25% figure you frequently use represent, say, 2 standard deviations on an hourly chart perhaps?"

I said the philosophy is that one but i dont use this stuff.
My method is KISS

I gave my normal entry and exit point in the first post ( have to be used in 80% of the case) and gave some explanations later why we have to do a little bit differently when a trend is against us.

As for deviation i said 0,25 because at one moment you have to decide to go in.
0,10 is not really a decorrelation because correlation between these 2 babies is not perfect ( close to 94% only)
remember that i am just trying to built a position starting when i consider the decorrelation to be representative and 0,25 is accroding to me.
The more important part is the working on the position ( which is lacking on 99% of the strategies on hedging i read on internet)
  • #459
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:50am Jul 17, 2008 7:50am
Spieler, usually how much percentage do you risk for each position ? 1% ? 2% ? Or more ?

Thx
Skyline
  • #460
  • Jul 17, 2008 8:05am Jul 17, 2008 8:05am
On this particular serie the maximum dd has been -2,5%
I wonn + 0,8% so could look like a bad risk/reward but it is not.
I would have keep and close everything at the same time today profit would have been +3,5% at 20k.

But if the trend after a pull back had been trending again south the risk would not have been good for my stress level
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