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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #381
  • Jul 16, 2008 8:44am Jul 16, 2008 8:44am
Spieler,

Are there any specific profit targets you use for your lots? For example, suppose I bought both currencies at -0.25. Should I sell them at 0.0? Or should I wait for +0.25? etc. By the way, that's what I did today. Bought at -0.25, sold at 0.0.
  • #382
  • Jul 16, 2008 8:58am Jul 16, 2008 8:58am
Quoting pipsalot
Spieler,

Are there any specific profit targets you use for your lots? For example, suppose I bought both currencies at -0.25. Should I sell them at 0.0? Or should I wait for +0.25? etc. By the way, that's what I did today. Bought at -0.25, sold at 0.0.
I think Spieler said that early in this thread, he enter at -0.25% then close half position at 0% and the remaining at +0.25%

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #383
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:11am Jul 16, 2008 9:11am
Oh, ok. I must have missed that. Thanks. So if I understand correctly, it's the same with positions entered at other percentages. So a position entered at -0.5 would be closed at -0.25 and the remaining half of it would be closed at 0.0.
  • #384
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:16am Jul 16, 2008 9:16am
As of exit if you have only on elot skyline is right.
But every case can be different because it is a matter of speed.
If we arrive at zero, pip per pip and slow like the turtle ok i will exit half.
If we go there like the rapid runner i will keep to extand the profit and will exit when things going to slow.
if you have more than 1 lot you have to work the position as i explained and it takes time to be familiar with the technic.
Working the position is the core of this strategy , without it you can be killed one day.

now and later :
"At 1.6093 you would actually be looking to close all your postions since you had an overall profit on the the 3 trades, but as I understand you missed that point and now you are looking on todays actions based on the yesterdays ending decorrelation. So today you're waiting for +0.34 to get a profit on 2nd position from yesterday (entered at -0.55) to get a profit that equals 0.25."

I would not have closed my position with 1,5k profit but perhaps the second one even if my real target had not been hit.
But sometime when you suffer with a position you are happy to light it specialy with a profit.
"But if you closed all of yesterdays positions at +0.09 today (-0.64 (yesterdays close) + 0.55 (where you entered 2nd lot)) you would get a BE trade on yesterday and get out of those trades and minimise the risk, or maybe at +0.10->+0.15 so you could have an overall profit on yesterdays trades. Am I doing the math wrong or are you just looking for bigger profit?"

THis question is a headack lol i read it 3 times and still does not understand what you relly mean .
By the way i have never been in a profit position today .
At better i was loosing 4,2 k ( won 3,8 yesterday) so almost flat.
At the worst 1h ago i was down 17K ( so 13 really)
Now i am net -6k the position mooves a lot.
Need a better moove to get out with a nice profit.
it seems that i am going to take the 3 days interests now but can moove any time from now.
Patience is everything in trading
  • #385
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:19am Jul 16, 2008 9:19am
closed all positions with an insignificantly small profit. not worth mentioning.

todays trade on its own was fine again....and I am glad i did it because without it, y'days position on its own would have ended up costing money.

all in all, my own way of trading generates more money. trading the spread in a directional trending market we had since yesterday involves a lot of attention.

i believe it takes a lot of fine tuning and watching those 3 pairs to get the right feel for it - which I am sure Spieler has and that's why he makes good money with it.

I personally had a hard time staying in all positions since my style of trading involves holding a position for seconds to minutes (rarely longer than that)

to overcome the stress, I only took 1lot/1.6lots per position, so no sweat - but ultimately, not the strategy for me (at least not on a regular basis)

nevertheless, thank you Spieler for sharing...and all the best.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #386
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:33am Jul 16, 2008 9:33am
Day trading you re welcome.
I understand youre saying but yesterday and today does not represent a correct image of spread trading.
Mainly it does not trend that way so we have several differents trades per day.
I was a scalper like you ( my pseudo comes from this way of trading) but with spread trading i have 90% less stress.
So i feel now that i prefer this way of trading and i dont have to spend many hours in front of my pc.
I am not only spreading and doing outright trades as well with many different strategies
  • #387
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:54am Jul 16, 2008 9:54am
Quoting spieler
Day trading you re welcome.
I understand youre saying but yesterday and today does not represent a correct image of spread trading.
Mainly it does not trend that way so we have several differents trades per day.
I was a scalper like you ( my pseudo comes from this way of trading) but with spread trading i have 90% less stress.
So i feel now that i prefer this way of trading and i dont have to spend many hours in front of my pc.
I am not only spreading and doing outright trades as well with many different strategies
Spieler,

In the experience that you have had doing this spread trading over the years, what is the percentage for

USDCHF SELL EURUSD SELL for USDCHF being the +gainer $$
USDCHF BUY EURUSD BUY for USDCHF being the +gainer $$

Bruce
  • #388
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:59am Jul 16, 2008 9:59am
Quoting spieler
Day trading you re welcome.
I understand youre saying but yesterday and today does not represent a correct image of spread trading.
Mainly it does not trend that way so we have several differents trades per day.
I was a scalper like you ( my pseudo comes from this way of trading) but with spread trading i have 90% less stress.
So i feel now that i prefer this way of trading and i dont have to spend many hours in front of my pc.
I am not only spreading and doing outright trades as well with many different strategies
Spieler,

I will definetely keep the spread on screen during my trading day.....

anyway, thanks again...nice meeting you.

here is a screenshot of how i worked the stuff over two days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spread1507.png Size: 54 KB
Enter Signature
  • #389
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:01am Jul 16, 2008 10:01am
Spieler-

I just wanted to say that, unlike daytrading , I am not finding anything stressful so far with trading your strategy. I think this trade we are currently in is great and will end up winning much more than the quick in and out trades. More positions = more pips to win.

Also drawdown is very managable considering the size of the move we are currently in. I am definatly keen to stick with it and learn more from you about management of the positions in the next few days. Thanks again for sharing and taking the time to offer guidance.
  • #390
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:07am Jul 16, 2008 10:07am
Quoting spieler
"But if you closed all of yesterdays positions at +0.09 today (-0.64 (yesterdays close) + 0.55 (where you entered 2nd lot)) you would get a BE trade on yesterday and get out of those trades and minimise the risk, or maybe at +0.10->+0.15 so you could have an overall profit on yesterdays trades. Am I doing the math wrong or are you just looking for bigger profit?"

THis question is a headack lol i read it 3 times and still does not understand what you relly mean .
I mean at +0.09 (when looking only at todays move) you would get back to BE on all positions from yesterday if closed at that point (since at 0.09% today would be -0.55% on yesterdays move which is where you opened the second position), since the 1st one is losing 0.25% the second one is +/- 0 and the third position is a win with 0.25%.
So what I mean is basically this: If we have 3 positions opened, lets say opened at 0.25%, 0.50% and 0.75%, if after opening the third trade the price moves back to to 0.50% then if we close all positions then the total trade would be breakeven (BE). And thus minimising risk in case we are in for a trendy move.
Is this more clear or is it only clear in my head?
  • #391
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:13am Jul 16, 2008 10:13am
ok roger i get you.
But i dont do it that way i need profits and not BE because i am a pro and need profits to live even if i understand what you say.
It can happen sometimes, if you keep a positions with multiples lots a long time, and being BE you decide to cut ( usually there is a rally behind which would have been in your direction).

our position is better now it shows a little loss and i would have been up 3K if i had taken the trade i gave the entry point this morning.

One more nice up and we will cut the second lot and perhaps the first one if it goes more north
  • #392
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:15am Jul 16, 2008 10:15am
"USDCHF SELL EURUSD SELL for USDCHF being the +gainer $$
USDCHF BUY EURUSD BUY for USDCHF being the +gainer $$"

i dont keep a record ( i know i should i used to do it years ago i am lazy now) of all the trades so dont know both are winners
  • #393
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:17am Jul 16, 2008 10:17am
Quoting spieler
ok roger i get you.
But i dont do it that way i need profits and not BE because i am a pro and need profits to live even if i understand what you say.
It can happen sometimes, if you keep a positions with multiples lots a long time, and being BE you decide to cut ( usually there is a rally behind which would have been in your direction).

our position is better now it shows a little loss and i would have been up 3K if i had taken the trade i gave the entry point this morning.

One more nice up and we will cut the second lot and perhaps the first one if it goes more north
Glad we sorted that one out, thanks for the answer and keep up the great work.
  • #394
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:07am Jul 16, 2008 11:07am
1,6093 resistance so far the high of yesterday pull back.
  • #395
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:13am Jul 16, 2008 11:13am
have a look at the E/Ch daily chart attached. Today it broke through support that was tested several time in the last couple of months. With the turmoil in the financial markets, are we headed for a repeat of last Feb Mar meltdown?

I got one trade in on Monday @ -.66% (for details see my earlier post), rode it to -1.05% (actually asleep at that time), but couldn't trade it even if I wanted to as my demo account didn't have enough funds for another full trade.

As I am wrinting this I am about +$100. I'll hold trade until triple swap and will exit trade if I see E/Ch going south. I'll stand aside for the rest of the week and see where E/Ch is heading before testing this system again.

Thanks Spieler for a great system and sharing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euch daily.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: trade1.gif Size: 97 KB
  • #396
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:20am Jul 16, 2008 11:20am
usually i dont look at the trend. The system is winning even if we trend if we have some pull back and we always have some.
If there is some volatility it is good.
But you dont have to use x200 on the first position .
I try to find a confortable level of decorrelation ( 0,25) to get in i dont look for the perfect one ( does it exist?) and then i work the position the way i explain .
  • #397
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:33am Jul 16, 2008 11:33am
1,6092 watch need to break 93 and should be good for today
  • #398
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:45am Jul 16, 2008 11:45am
Quoting spieler
usually i dont look at the trend. The system is winning even if we trend if we have some pull back and we always have some.
If there is some volatility it is good.
But you dont have to use x200 on the first position .
I try to find a confortable level of decorrelation ( 0,25) to get in i dont look for the perfect one ( does it exist?) and then i work the position the way i explain .
You are absolutely right about looking for the perfect setup. In reality how a trade works in the end is all about MM. All I am saying is if there are signs of a storm coming, one needs to take steps to protect oneself.

Upon reflection, if I was awake I probably would have put on a .5/.8 trade at -1.05% to follow the rules and would have close that portion now for a nice profit.
  • #399
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:47am Jul 16, 2008 11:47am
Quoting spieler
1,6092 watch need to break 93 and should be good for today
It may not have enough strength with London just about closing.
  • #400
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:56am Jul 16, 2008 11:56am
"Upon reflection, if I was awake I probably would have put on a .5/.8 trade at -1.05% to follow the rules and would have close that portion now for a nice profit."
i was out today but i gave the point this morning page 23 of this thread ( i said get in at 1,5996 and we hit 91)
THis one was good and i would be + now with it.
I am still suffering a little loss we just hit 93 again and could not pass.
tomorrow i presume will go to bed in 30 minutes
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