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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #341
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:20am Jul 16, 2008 1:20am
Hi...


Yes I agree to a point....the only thing in our favor is that so far we are not making any new lows...and mostly the lowers are getting higher..based on the 1hr..

I just wonder..what is the longest it has taken to close out position 1..
  • #342
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:35am Jul 16, 2008 1:35am
in 40 minutes we get CHF retail sales....that might add some movement.
Enter Signature
  • #343
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:39am Jul 16, 2008 1:39am
Quoting spieler
did you get the swap interest ?

Yes...on ODL demo with 1 lot long on E/U swap was $3.00 and 1.6 lot long on U/C $2.38. I enter my first trade at -.66% and currently basically b/e.

I know it's off topic, but the trade I am in is almost the ideal carry-trade setup. $5.28 daily interest equates to $1,927.20 per year, and on $3,200 margin is a 60% return. Let say you fund that account with $5,000, that still is a 38.5% return on funds invested, and you still have the opportunity to pull some positive pips when the trade goes your way.
  • #344
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:42am Jul 16, 2008 1:42am
Quoting Angler
Hi...

Richard.... I think he did it this way...


He wants to close at -0.30. his entry from yesterday..

If we closed at -0.64 with a move today of +0.34 we will end up at that -0.30 from yesterday.
Angler-

Thats the way I see it but just want spieler to confirm. Better safe than sorry.
  • #345
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:43am Jul 16, 2008 1:43am
Quoting spieler
I can see that during the night for me we reached 1.6093.
we were at -0.44% at that moment.
At this moment my total position was closed to a potential profit of 1.5k

I still have 2 lots loosing 2.5k including the profit taken on the 3rd lot sold yesterday.

Strategy of the day :

waiting eur/chf to be close to +0.34% to sell the 2nd lot ( we are at this moment +0.09%). We closed yesterday at -0.64% i entered this lot at -0.55% i will try to sell it close to the entry of the first lot at -0.30%.
If the profit on the 2nd lot is acceptable because of a big up in chf and we have 1.5 on it i will close it before.

if we continue the yesterday trend ( usd/chf going down) i will enter a 3rd lot at -0.25% of th elast lot i entered yesterday that i s-0.80-0.25 = -1.05%. For today that means i will put a 3rd lot if eur/chf goes down -0.41% ( 1.05-0.64( close of yesterday in %)) it is 1.5996 point.
If i had unwind this night my 2nd lot as i should have done things would have been different, i would have to wait less to enter a second lot long.
That s trading
Do I understand this right:
At 1.6093 you would actually be looking to close all your postions since you had an overall profit on the the 3 trades, but as I understand you missed that point and now you are looking on todays actions based on the yesterdays ending decorrelation. So today you're waiting for +0.34 to get a profit on 2nd position from yesterday (entered at -0.55) to get a profit that equals 0.25.
But if you closed all of yesterdays positions at +0.09 today (-0.64 (yesterdays close) + 0.55 (where you entered 2nd lot)) you would get a BE trade on yesterday and get out of those trades and minimise the risk, or maybe at +0.10->+0.15 so you could have an overall profit on yesterdays trades. Am I doing the math wrong or are you just looking for bigger profit?
  • #346
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:54am Jul 16, 2008 1:54am
Hi...



Ok...we are heading back to that -0.80 third entry point..

are we entering a trade ..?
  • #347
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:57am Jul 16, 2008 1:57am
Quoting Angler
Hi...



Ok...we are heading back to that -0.80 third entry point..

are we entering a trade ..?
no...in the 1.5990's which corresponds to -1.05% from y'day.
Enter Signature
  • #348
  • Jul 16, 2008 2:05am Jul 16, 2008 2:05am
HI..

Ok thanks......yeah just went back and re-read his strategy for today...
  • #349
  • Jul 16, 2008 3:29am Jul 16, 2008 3:29am
Hi...


This is not looking pretty at the moment......but then again we have been getting into trades against the current short term trend......but that is the system and test it I will do..
  • #350
  • Jul 16, 2008 4:06am Jul 16, 2008 4:06am
Yesterday for me was a nightmare since an EA that was running on EURUSD used for jacko trail, trails my first 2 divergence orders that were stopped out then I was able to close at least my third position with profit at -0.50%
Ok it was my fault but I'm getting the feeling with Spieler's spread method So today I have to start again from flat position.

Cya later

Skyline
  • #351
  • Jul 16, 2008 4:59am Jul 16, 2008 4:59am
Down trend continues, at -0.25 for today again
Regards
  • #352
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:17am Jul 16, 2008 5:17am
Quoting howard
Down trend continues, at -0.25 for today again
Entered my first positions for today at :

long EURUSD @ 1.5939
long USDCHF @ 1.0054
  • #353
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:18am Jul 16, 2008 5:18am
HI..


dont know if anyone here is still testing this.....but all 4 trades in both Positions are in loss territory .
  • #354
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:24am Jul 16, 2008 5:24am
Well eur/chf just broke the botom of a range. 1.6000 could offer some support but as I am typing is going trough for now. There is no way I am going to buy this market no mater what the % is telling us.

So keep on waiting ........
  • #355
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:25am Jul 16, 2008 5:25am
Quoting howard
Down trend continues, at -0.25 for today again
-0.43 now
Regards
  • #356
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:26am Jul 16, 2008 5:26am
Carry trades are unwinding, normally CHF follows as well
Regards
  • #357
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:48am Jul 16, 2008 5:48am
So would the -1% (from monday's close) be another buy point? Or would that same level be a buy point because its -.25% from tuedsay's close?
  • #358
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:51am Jul 16, 2008 5:51am
Hi...

One of Spielers posts earlier talked about his plan for the day..
  • #359
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:54am Jul 16, 2008 5:54am
Quoting spieler
central idea is correlation/decorrelation.

Strong inversed correlation on this 2 pairs so when you are -0.25% that means decorrelation so our idea is that it is going to go back to zero because they are inversed correlated
add some strong mm and you got the whole thing
I think -0.25% does not mean decorelation. It means the pair is downtrending. Sometime it goes back sometime it falls...
  • #360
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:58am Jul 16, 2008 5:58am
Quoting mackus
So would the -1% (from monday's close) be another buy point? Or would that same level be a buy point because its -.25% from tuedsay's close?
Spielers top up price for the next lot was 1.5995 on eur/chf which correspondds to -1.05% from y'days open.

So he should have another long on usd/chf around 1.0030 and in eur/usd around 1.5940.

regards
Enter Signature
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