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  • #1,141
  • Jul 15, 2008 5:33pm Jul 15, 2008 5:33pm
usd/jpy revisiting 104.00 ?


p.s. Ozziedave awesome question !
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,142
  • Jul 15, 2008 5:35pm Jul 15, 2008 5:35pm
How about AUDUSD long @ 0.9654 - 0.9668? Previously resistance on H4 up to daily and confluence with fibs.

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  • #1,143
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:21pm Jul 15, 2008 10:21pm
Quoting Gregus83
Hi BRV,

What would you consider to be your first target/hurdle to overcome? I was looking at 1.9999 and 2.0027 beyond that.

Stop wise, I'm looking at 1.9880.

Any comments you would make on this?

Thanks,

Greg
Hi Greg, if it were to drop right now from where it is and hit that level, I would say the 2.0000 to 2.0008 area, and then anything above that would depend on what the current price action creates in terms of support that will be looked at as resistance. Just basing it on past history, I would say the 2.0045-50 area.
  • #1,144
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:21pm Jul 15, 2008 10:21pm
Quoting manistra
This is valuable information, even more valuable when we know how much expirience Billy has. Approach like this is integral part of consistency. I like this thread not only because its simplicity but because after an awfully long way of failed strategies, i came to "traders home", home called S&R trading.

btw I am going to scalp potential bounce of EURJPY off 166.25 (support and Weekly S2)
Yeah I had 166.15 -19 marked up on this, so around the same area. If it fails 165.00 is the next frontier.
  • #1,145
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:22pm Jul 15, 2008 10:22pm
Quoting finswin56
So, here's my question. Do you go short at 1.5950? Right at 50% ret of the today's move down, the support of a spike down during the move, and a former resistance on the 4H chart from April's move up. It's not a no brainer, but I got killed yesterday ignoring such a ret. I guess the question is, was today's move impulsive or a correction?
In the bigger picture its just a correction as we’ve been in a relatively strong uptrend for a while, but not to say that it could reverse from here and dive down even lower. In terms of that level the best play off of it would have been earlier today, when price broker through it to the downside and came back. Still though, its most likely going to fight it on the way back up, and could be good for a scalp or continuation of a reversal.
  • #1,146
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:22pm Jul 15, 2008 10:22pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi BRV,

I have noticed that on many of your trades you take 20, 30 or 40 pips profit. This seems to be in direct contrast to many S&R traders who are looking to only get into trades that they feel will run for a 100-200pips. They look to take small losses in order to get into a position to hit the big home run. My question is do you enter into some of these positions knowing that S or R area may only be 50 pips away? Again, most other S&R traders would pass on trades were the S or R areas were that close to the entry. Do you have any guidelines for how far away the S or R area needs to be before you enter a position?
Hi ozziedave, To your first question, yes all the time. To the second, no not really. In all honesty I’ve never been too concerned over calculating an exact risk/reward and a static profit target on all of my trades, because more times than not the trade will bust through a level before 100 or 200 pips ever gets seen.

Just like anything else these smaller trades add up to big money over the long haul.

Locking in some profits and letting a piece of it ride has paid out well for me and allowed me to stay in the green almost every day. I used to try to get more out of these trades, but I found my success rate has just been a lot higher taking money when I see it as I do a lot of intraday trading. Oftentimes I’ll be long and short on the same pair taking advantage of both the long term and intermediate trends.

Essentially I’m looking for an above average winrate, taking safe trades only.

If I take 3 very safe trades a day, 30 pips each, that’s 90 pips every day. 90 pips, even trading the minimum of one contract is about a quarter-million dollar a year salary. Trade 5 contracts at a time and that’s $1.2mm, and so on. So these intraday levels pay off and taking profits at what some might consider premature doesn’t hurt. This scenario goes more or less and all over of course, but just using it as an example.

Betting on longer term trends can be hard to do in this market sometimes, especially if you are looking to pinpoint an entry without letting it go against you without any form of hedge.

Taking the USD/CHF trade today as an example, if it weren’t for the news in the equity and oil markets, I’m not so sure so many pips would have come out of it. I was looking for dollar strength after this stuff for the day in general, but outcome was still uncertain. That’s why I always keep an ear on what’s going on in these arenas during the day because they can drastically affect the longevity of your trade.
  • #1,147
  • Edited 1:06am Jul 16, 2008 12:48am | Edited 1:06am
Long AUD/USD 0.9668 - 0.9663

This is the most significant recent high before this last AUD uptrend, also coinciding with a .50 retracement. Should be a good reaction when price touches it.
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  • #1,148
  • Jul 16, 2008 12:55am Jul 16, 2008 12:55am
Hi,

Short on this one with the prevoius support now acting as a decent R level.
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  • #1,149
  • Jul 16, 2008 12:57am Jul 16, 2008 12:57am
Quoting Siam
Hi,

Short on this one with the prevoius support now acting as a decent R level.
Nice call; I actually missed entry on this earlier today because I was away from the computer and kicking myself now. About 50 pips so far pullback.
  • #1,150
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:04am Jul 16, 2008 1:04am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long AUD/USD 0.9968 - 0.9963

This is the most significant recent high before this last AUD uptrend, also coinciding with a .50 retracement. Should be a good reaction when price touches it.
this should be a long from the a/u .9668 - .9663 correct?
  • #1,151
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:06am Jul 16, 2008 1:06am
Quoting rogerdoger
this should be a long from the a/u .9668 - .9663 correct?
Nice catch - post amended.
  • #1,152
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:12am Jul 16, 2008 1:12am
Quoting Siam
Hi,

Short on this one with the prevoius support now acting as a decent R level.
Long tail yesterday on daily something to watch.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,153
  • Jul 16, 2008 2:00am Jul 16, 2008 2:00am
Especially during the US session, there is a lot to be said about this correlation in general. But hopefully just by looking at the below you'll be able to see why monitoring the equity markets is so highly relevant during our trading sessions. This is a chart of usd/jpy and the latest s&p futures contract. Just something to take note of as I know we talk about it from time to time but rarely delve too much into it. Thought I would post this as an example. I know there are a couple of threads out there that have made this connection a central focus but cant seem to find them now. If anyone knows please post a link. Thanks,
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  • #1,154
  • Jul 16, 2008 2:02am Jul 16, 2008 2:02am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
In the bigger picture its just a correction as we’ve been in a relatively strong uptrend for a while, but not to say that it could reverse from here and dive down even lower. In terms of that level the best play off of it would have been earlier today, when price broker through it to the downside and came back. Still though, its most likely going to fight it on the way back up, and could be good for a scalp or continuation of a reversal.
Thanks. Yeah, this has been an impressively long and large area of consolidation. We've gone from a double bottom to a double top also.

One thing is for certain though, the 1.5800 area sticks out like a sore thumb.
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  • #1,155
  • Jul 16, 2008 2:08am Jul 16, 2008 2:08am
BRV, I have an intraday question for you if that's okay.

When you take your intraday positions, are you also going counter trend looking for a bounce (like the no brainer, but with lower expectations)? Or are you using the levels on pull backs so you can go with the current trend?

Also, about how much room do you give those levels before considering them broken/failed?
  • #1,156
  • Jul 16, 2008 2:24am Jul 16, 2008 2:24am
Another question. Sorry, I must be in one of those moods.

When you identify a specific level in a past range of lows/highs, do you target the last high/low before the move away from that level?

In case that's just a jumbled collection of words in need of coffee, here's a pic of the EUR/JPY. If you were to go to the 15M chart, you can see price hitting this level on the head and bouncing. Later breaking though and using it for R.
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  • #1,157
  • Jul 16, 2008 3:29am Jul 16, 2008 3:29am
Quoting finswin56
BRV, I have an intraday question for you if that's okay.

When you take your intraday positions, are you also going counter trend looking for a bounce (like the no brainer, but with lower expectations)? Or are you using the levels on pull backs so you can go with the current trend?

Also, about how much room do you give those levels before considering them broken/failed?
Yes Im pretty much always looking to do that - thats where the bulk of the income comes from, but still viewing on a 1hr chart or so. And yes also looking to buy pullbacks and stay in line with the trend; both directions, as long as I know its an obvious level. In terms of room it really depends, usually 10-20 pips at most, but if they dont hit the level directly and bounce right off of it almost to the pip I start to get more pessimistic.
  • #1,158
  • Jul 16, 2008 3:33am Jul 16, 2008 3:33am
Quoting finswin56
Another question. Sorry, I must be in one of those moods.

When you identify a specific level in a past range of lows/highs, do you target the last high/low before the move away from that level?

In case that's just a jumbled collection of words in need of coffee, here's a pic of the EUR/JPY. If you were to go to the 15M chart, you can see price hitting this level on the head and bouncing. Later breaking though and using it for R.
Thats okay no problemo. In a case like the example you just mentioned, it’s the last high low. But in the case of something like the CHF trade today where price hasn’t touched it in a while, it’s based on the most relevant historical significance.
  • #1,159
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:39am Jul 16, 2008 5:39am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yes Im pretty much always looking to do that - thats where the bulk of the income comes from, but still viewing on a 1hr chart or so. And yes also looking to buy pullbacks and stay in line with the trend; both directions, as long as I know its an obvious level. In terms of room it really depends, usually 10-20 pips at most, but if they dont hit the level directly and bounce right off of it almost to the pip I start to get more pessimistic.
Thanks for the responses!
  • #1,160
  • Jul 16, 2008 10:02am Jul 16, 2008 10:02am
BRV long @ eur/usd 1.5800 area ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
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