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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #16,121
  • Jul 14, 2008 4:04pm Jul 14, 2008 4:04pm
Beautiful TC today on the USDJPY. Bearish engulfing candle w/tweezer tops closing below the 200. Also was making lower highs and lower lows.
Took initial 30 pip profit and set the stop above the 8 EMA (about BE). Will take profit on the rest at the 365 if it makes it.
Anybody else in this trade?
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  • #16,122
  • Jul 14, 2008 4:06pm Jul 14, 2008 4:06pm
Hi is Phillip Nel posting whwn he C a setup ?
  • #16,123
  • Jul 14, 2008 6:10pm Jul 14, 2008 6:10pm
I took the TC on the GBP/USD!
It was a beauty!

I enter on second green candle about 1 hr after opening.
I was aggressive and opened 2 lots took profit after 15pips and let the other lot move up to 1.9960 as TP.

I know it was going to try and break out again.
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MIG platform makes a big difference.
  • #16,124
  • Jul 14, 2008 6:24pm Jul 14, 2008 6:24pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Could not trade today due to work conditions. I am still busy fighting that virus on my laptop
Phillip,
Try this one ftp://ftp.drweb.com/pub/drweb/cureit/launch.exe it will find and kill all viruses, ad-ware in your system. It is free, no installation... Main disadvantage is that it is not updated automatically... but if it is just downloaded it is most recent release.
Even it is free from time to time i do download and scan my PC.
off site: http://www.freedrweb.com/cureit/

Regards
  • #16,125
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:16pm Jul 14, 2008 10:16pm
Euro/USD has a TC now!

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It is making a run at 1.5960 again.

If it can not break it, look out double top
  • #16,126
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:18pm Jul 14, 2008 10:18pm
GBP/USD

Is almost at top of price channel. Possible reversal? at 2.0000
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  • #16,127
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:45am Jul 15, 2008 12:45am
Quoting hijackxx
Why didn't anyone take the TC in cable? i took it for 39pips.
Was it only luck for me? Phillip why didn't you take this chance?
I took CABLE at price 1.9866! Closed TOTAL 32 pips
THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN
  • #16,128
  • Edited 2:52am Jul 15, 2008 2:35am | Edited 2:52am
Hi Phil. Yesterday I got a nasty virus on my pc. I used AVG Free antivirus to get rid of it. It scans for virusses and malicious ware at the same time. Here is the link. http://free.avg.com/ww.download?prd=afe
Also run msconfig from the command line and under its startup menu have a look at any files that automatically run when windows starts up and deselect suspicious looking startups files, because if the virus file is run at startup it will reinstall the virus on your machine everytime you reboot. If you run the virus scan in safe mode (F8, when you reboot) it wont reinstall the virus and you can remove it. Hope this helps - it worked for me.
  • #16,129
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:26am Jul 15, 2008 3:26am
I have no idea what is going on. My terminal got crashed this morning and I still have my USDCAD short running. Had to check manually from broker's website and the good news is that yesterday's short TC is doing great at the moment. Laptop is reinstalling (using a firend's computer right now), hope it'll hit TP.
  • #16,130
  • Jul 15, 2008 6:03am Jul 15, 2008 6:03am
Took the TC at the arrow yesterday. It was a TC when I placed the trade a few minutes before the candle closed (had to go back to work). I handled the stop by dropping back to the 1H and placed it at .5875, below the 21ema. I only did this because I felt good about the strength of the trend. It took a while for the trade to work out, but it eventually did. TP at .5945.
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  • #16,131
  • Edited 9:27pm Jul 15, 2008 6:08am | Edited 9:27pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Could not trade today due to work conditions. I am still busy fighting that virus on my laptop
Phil,

Thanks for your hard work and patience in teaching us. Thanks for this great thread and for sharing your system with us. We hope that your computer "gets well soon" and you are back online with us all really soon.
  • #16,132
  • Jul 15, 2008 6:24am Jul 15, 2008 6:24am
I missed some good trades yesterday mostly from fear. I really didn't think the TC was that strong on the Euro but I was wrong. And the GBPUSD I was waiting for a retracement but it took off. Phillip do you mind commenting on yesterday's market?
  • #16,133
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:41pm Jul 15, 2008 12:41pm
Price has made a TC from a pullback to breakout TL

Enter 1.5937
SL 1.5900
TP both positions at 1.6000 or closeby

I will go to BE after 25pips gain on both positions and and set TP for both positions around 1.6000 as I anticipate the price to go to that level.

Edit 1
Both positions closed at 1.6000

Total gain 63pips
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  • #16,134
  • Edited 8:51pm Jul 15, 2008 8:35pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Price has made a TC from a pullback to breakout TL

Enter 1.5937
SL 1.5900
TP both positions at 1.6000 or closeby

I will go to BE after 25pips gain on both positions and and set TP for both positions around 1.6000 as I anticipate the price to go to that level.

Edit 1
Both positions closed at 1.6000

Total gain 63pips
Hi Phil,

Looks like that the clock on your computer was wrong. I told that from the time stamped on your post, which was "Today 01:41PM". Wonder if this has something to do with the virus. Cheers!
  • #16,135
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:51pm Jul 15, 2008 9:51pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Price has made a TC from a pullback to breakout TL

Enter 1.5937
SL 1.5900
TP both positions at 1.6000 or closeby

I will go to BE after 25pips gain on both positions and and set TP for both positions around 1.6000 as I anticipate the price to go to that level.

Edit 1
Both positions closed at 1.6000

Total gain 63pips
What a great trade, Phillip. so simple and effective. I can't believe even I saw the chart all the time but still miss such good trade
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #16,136
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:31pm Jul 15, 2008 11:31pm
Hello all. I'm a bit new, I've gone through the lessons and plan on going through them a second time. Looking at the MACD am I looking at an AT(Agressive Turnaround). Also, I searched through the thread and haven't found anything as of yet. Do those levels on the MACD have any significance?


I see what looks like a HS (Head and Shoulders) pattern on the EUR/USD. Please give feedback on how I'm interpreting these so I can give better feedback and posts. Thanks Good Luck with your trades fellows.[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/home/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]
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  • #16,137
  • Edited 1:17am Jul 16, 2008 1:06am | Edited 1:17am
Quoting saka
What a great trade, Phillip. so simple and effective. I can't believe even I saw the chart all the time but still miss such good trade
I also didn't enter on this setup, but I would call this entry not so simple: a) it was made in one bar after MACD gave a TC and b) it was ~25 pips below Mon. high, that one formed with gap up (I was doubting if such highs after gaps are "valid"). I evaluated this setup and in the end passed it. So, it seems to be that one had to be experienced to enter a bit late and to anticipate the move.
  • #16,138
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:17am Jul 16, 2008 1:17am
Quoting Kush
... Do those levels on the MACD have any significance?
Hi, Kush.
Levels on MACD are interpreted in the way, usual for MACD treated alone. The higher MACD is, the bigger the difference between the faster MA and the slower one, thus the stronger the move lately comparing to the move over the longer period of time. But price can't climb (fall) forever and usually when it crosses some levels, it's considered to become "overbought" or "oversold" - not a guarantee it'll turn, but the further - the more probable.

Quote
I see what looks like a HS (Head and Shoulders) pattern on the EUR/USD. Please give feedback on how I'm interpreting these so I can give better feedback and posts. Thanks Good Luck with your trades
To tell the truth, I myself haven't noticed the sHs on EURUSD before read your post. IMHO, you might be right to some extend, EURUSD really may show signs of slowing down (LH on MACD, difference between last 2 highs is less than between the previous and the one before it). Historical high is close though and that may make this situtation a bit unusual. But this sHs is not so good, for example, than the one on GBPUSD not long ago. IMHO.
  • #16,139
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:30am Jul 16, 2008 1:30am
I want to post these notes I made by listening to Phillips audios for new people.

I have notices the most important things philips said I only 1 or 2 sentences on the audio.

So far I have 18 rules from the 4 hr system.

·Rule1: After an Uptrend,says when price closes below the 21, price is going to pull back to the 21 upwards and then turn back to the 89. (does not happen 100% of the time, might happen 7 out of 10 times), if it does not happen it means the trend is not finished.

oRule1.2: Anticipation of the rule 1 at the end of a move when a price will come back to the 89, which might indicate the end or a start of a new down move which is not necessarily going to happen because the price might just find support the 89 and move up again.


·Rule 2: After a Downtrend, says when price closes above the 21, price pulls back to the 21, then price go back up to the 89. (does not happen 100% of the time, might happen 7 out of 10 times), if it does not happen it means the trend is not finished.
·Rule3: When the price goes through the 89 and 21 it tends to pull back to the 21 unless the speed of the market is high it go above the 8 and then pull back to the 8 until moving on
·Rule4: When the price comes back to the 89 it means that the rhythm is going to start again.
·Rule 5: Never chase breakout always wait for retracement
·Rule 6: take trade on smaller candles
·Rule7: Tails, Get into the market after the tail IF the macd gives a signal (Tails take out the stop losses)
·Rule 8: Counter trend trade only when:
oNear major Trend, Resistance and Support lines
oRR is 1:1 or better
oTowards the 21MA as profit target
·Rule 9: When price breaks through the 200SMA, it moves back to it before moving on.
·Rule 10: Look at the support and resistance levels (on every trade) and determine where the price will go, set profit target according to this
·Rule 11: When price break through major resistance or support it moves back and test it before moving away
·Rule 12: take trade on smaller candles
·Rule 13: 200 is the trend determinate (above the 200 upward trend); 89 is the mood of the trend
·Rule 14: When price breaks out through a trend line (or major moving average) it tends to return to the trendline before moving on or to the moving average that went though with the price
·Rule 15: If price breaks out it can return to the break out level
·Rule 16: Lower low or higher high needs to be used for conformation for change in the trend
·Rule 17: When price is between 2 moving averages or TL and price is getting squeezed there will be a break out of the price (don’t take MACD signals when price is squeezed)
·Rule 18: Most of the time when the 4hr candle is moving off the 8 EMA the 1 hr will usually make a TC with in hour or 2.
  • #16,140
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:52am Jul 16, 2008 1:52am
Quoting Yorik
I also didn't enter on this setup, but I would call this entry not so simple: a) it was made in one bar after MACD gave a TC and b) it was ~25 pips below Mon. high, that one formed with gap up (I was doubting if such highs after gaps are "valid"). I evaluated this setup and in the end passed it. So, it seems to be that one had to be experienced to enter a bit late and to anticipate the move.
Phillip always enters TC with price retraces back to trend line or MAs, this is a good techinc
Plan your trades and trade your plans
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