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No Brainer Trades

  • #1,121
  • Jul 15, 2008 8:23am Jul 15, 2008 8:23am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
very good support at 104.40. wondering if any of the events will blow anything out.
You guys are all braver than I am. Today scares the beejezus out of me.

BTW, I'm assuming EUR will find some support at at 1.5948-39 area, but I assumed a lot of things, incorrectly yesterday.
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  • #1,122
  • Jul 15, 2008 8:25am Jul 15, 2008 8:25am
Quoting finswin56
You guys are all braver than I am. Today scares the beejezus out of me.
Just use logic when you get scared . Rationalize everything and protect your neck.
  • #1,123
  • Edited 8:43am Jul 15, 2008 8:26am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
This finally got hit at 1.0020 for +34 so far. Again not expecting a whole lot though due to the obvious conditions out there today. Parity isnt too far away so just a heads up.

Going to run it as far as possible but protecting before the major events.

Lots of news out today, and Bernanke speaking at 10am est.
+53 pips and going. Speech in a half an hour. Looks like we caught the bottom though with only -2 pips drawdown. The EUR trade is working out, but not as planned. After we saw +50 pips of profit with only -7 drawdown it went against us -37 before coming back. I have to update the first post to show this though in order to keep it consistent. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...32&postcount=1 These performance numbers are just here to prove a point that what we do here works and does so consistently, not for anything else, anyway.
  • #1,124
  • Jul 15, 2008 8:40am Jul 15, 2008 8:40am
I think its time to get out of long dollar positions. equity markets are dismal as I am writing this
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,125
  • Jul 15, 2008 8:54am Jul 15, 2008 8:54am
Hi BRV,
Truly great and fascinating thread,

If I have comprehended the system correctly EURAUD seems to hovering around No Brainer setup at the moment.

regards, Bondvaga
  • #1,126
  • Jul 15, 2008 10:29am Jul 15, 2008 10:29am
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And again
"In Fibs I Trust"
  • #1,127
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:29am Jul 15, 2008 11:29am
EC didn't quite work out and hit my SL. Euro short and uc longs looking good. I am also moving my aussie buy limit to around 9716. Uj order got missed by few pips. Pretty crazy day today.
  • #1,128
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:34am Jul 15, 2008 11:34am
Quoting bondvaga
Hi BRV,
Truly great and fascinating thread,

If I have comprehended the system correctly EURAUD seems to hovering around No Brainer setup at the moment.

regards, Bondvaga
Thanks bondvaga - it looks pretty good but its just been hit quite a bit recently - also especially because its a more unique cross pair I personally take a little lower probability on these. Others, like eurjpy, gbpjpy, eurchf, etc I like to play a little more often as they are heavily monitored by banks and a little can in general go a long way with them. But good recognition though, its been out there.
  • #1,129
  • Edited Jul 16, 2008 1:16am Jul 15, 2008 11:36am | Edited Jul 16, 2008 1:16am
Long GBP/USD 1.9965-1.9958

Under normal conditions price should hit this right on the head and make a decent retrace ex any news - its sticking out like a sore thumb.
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  • #1,130
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:37am Jul 15, 2008 11:37am
Stopped out on USDCAD Long at 0.9975 entry>>1.0006. Price reversed exactly at my sl position. I should put my s/l at 0.9950 area where is next support but looking at H4 i have put it below doji candle. Right now i would be at breakeven. The entry could have been bit better. We have possible bullish outside bar on h4.
  • #1,131
  • Jul 15, 2008 11:58am Jul 15, 2008 11:58am
Hey Greenhaze just a suggestion If your going to be at your computer monitoring a trade why not use a mental stop loss so you don't get taken out by any spikes/stophunting. you may have been away from the computer, in that case don't mind me.
  • #1,132
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:06pm Jul 15, 2008 12:06pm
Long EUR/USD 1.5800 area

If pice makes it down there, same type of trade as the one before. This price has rarely been ignored historically, as well, so it should yield some form of a reaction.
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  • #1,133
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:02pm Jul 15, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Good question. Using stop losses in general with this technique is going to require some flexibility, as you're basically looking to not get stopped out if there is another significant level nearby. Thats why if you have any doubts regarding a level it never hurts to go in at a smaller position size and scale your way in if it goes to the next level.

For intraday trading I've done stuff like this before. Today as an example, I wanted to play a bounce off of a support level on CHF, didnt like price action, so I closed some exposure, and the rest went against me. When it did, I was able to get out at about breakeven on the trade (partial profits + partial loss).

I hate to say but I usually go into every trade with low expectations. I always nab some partial as soon as I can at a reasonable amount in relation to the trade expectations (trend, countertrend or trend reversal), and if I have enough room, set the stop loss to breakeven asap. It prevents me from not making money and maintaining consistency in terms of profits. My paycheck is about as reliable as anyone working for a salary basically doing it this way.

If the market just completely blasts away a level, and you were completely wrong, dont waste time, close atleast half of it and maintain your composure to think clearly about what could happen next.
I am not very experienced but I agree with taking partial profits early. I think for every strong s/r level there is a very high probability of atleast a small bounce. After a initial bounce the probability of trend to reverse is slightly less. I do the same for small scalp trades. Same goes for cutting losing trades in case of price not respecting a s/r level at all.
  • #1,134
  • Jul 15, 2008 2:24pm Jul 15, 2008 2:24pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Good morning,

I think the RBNZ meeting or more specifically the results of this meeting will be the trigger of a potential downswing. Couple this with the obvious TL coming off the highs on the daily chart and I'm targeting 7700/7720 for short entries.
Well so far so good this week, with Aud/$ hitting my target right away which led to the nice levels to short the nzd/$$. The next 1/2 weeks are going to see the USD rally, oil will continue to retrace. Yen crosses might just lead the way to a stronger greenback. Ex. gbp/jpy is ripe for a fall. usd/jpy will be range bound so gbp/usd will tank. This will happen across all the majors and commodity currencies. I'm short big kiwi/$$$ and gbp/jpy.
GET ON THE TRAIN
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,135
  • Jul 15, 2008 2:33pm Jul 15, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long GBP/USD 1.9960-1.9958

Under normal conditions price should hit this right on the head and make a decent retrace ex any news - its sticking out like a sore thumb.
Hi BRV,

What would you consider to be your first target/hurdle to overcome? I was looking at 1.9999 and 2.0027 beyond that.

Stop wise, I'm looking at 1.9880.

Any comments you would make on this?

Thanks,

Greg
  • #1,136
  • Jul 15, 2008 2:36pm Jul 15, 2008 2:36pm
I agree whole heartedly with the kiwi/dollar from the above post. I took a short risking 1% about 3 pips above previous high at 0.7762. Not only has the 61.8% retracement been hit, but on my chart, you'll also see the stochs are o/b, and the 100 and 200 ema are about to cross.....wonder how far down this move can go......
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  • #1,137
  • Edited 5:30pm Jul 15, 2008 3:43pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Good question. Using stop losses in general with this technique is going to require some flexibility, as you're basically looking to not get stopped out if there is another significant level nearby. Thats why if you have any doubts regarding a level it never hurts to go in at a smaller position size and scale your way in if it goes to the next level.

For intraday trading I've done stuff like this before. Today as an example, I wanted to play a bounce off of a support level on CHF, didnt like price action, so I closed some exposure, and the rest went against me. When it did, I was able to get out at about breakeven on the trade (partial profits + partial loss).

I hate to say but I usually go into every trade with low expectations. I always nab some partial as soon as I can at a reasonable amount in relation to the trade expectations (trend, countertrend or trend reversal), and if I have enough room, set the stop loss to breakeven asap. It prevents me from not making money and maintaining consistency in terms of profits. My paycheck is about as reliable as anyone working for a salary basically doing it this way.

If the market just completely blasts away a level, and you were completely wrong, dont waste time, close atleast half of it and maintain your composure to think clearly about what could happen next.
This is valuable information, even more valuable when we know how much expirience Billy has. Approach like this is integral part of consistency. I like this thread not only because its simplicity but because after an awfully long way of failed strategies, i came to "traders home", home called S&R trading.

btw I am going to scalp potential bounce of EURJPY off 166.25 (support and Weekly S2)
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  • #1,138
  • Jul 15, 2008 4:51pm Jul 15, 2008 4:51pm
So, here's my question. Do you go short at 1.5950? Right at 50% ret of the today's move down, the support of a spike down during the move, and a former resistance on the 4H chart from April's move up. It's not a no brainer, but I got killed yesterday ignoring such a ret. I guess the question is, was today's move impulsive or a correction?
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  • #1,139
  • Jul 15, 2008 5:04pm Jul 15, 2008 5:04pm
Thumbs up to BRV and all contributors.

Its been a welcome education in taming the beast!
bull in a china shop
  • #1,140
  • Jul 15, 2008 5:20pm Jul 15, 2008 5:20pm
Hi BRV,

I have noticed that on many of your trades you take 20, 30 or 40 pips profit. This seems to be in direct contrast to many S&R traders who are looking to only get into trades that they feel will run for a 100-200pips. They look to take small losses in order to get into a position to hit the big home run. My question is do you enter into some of these positions knowing that S or R area may only be 50 pips away? Again, most other S&R traders would pass on trades were the S or R areas were that close to the entry. Do you have any guidelines for how far away the S or R area needs to be before you enter a position?
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