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  • #1,081
  • Jul 14, 2008 6:28pm Jul 14, 2008 6:28pm
Hi BRV and all,

I just started reading this thread. Very interesting. I was wondering if someone could tell me which posts contain the description of the way this system works so I can study it. I have been trading with real money for about 8 months now. I am using a system and I am in the black (barely) but it is not giving me the results I had hoped.

Thanks,
  • #1,082
  • Jul 14, 2008 6:36pm Jul 14, 2008 6:36pm
Also UCHF sell at 1.0276.
And aussie buy at .9636 which is a confluence of previous s/r level, 38 fib and weekly pivot level. RBA will release minutes today which may cause a sharp drop or rally.
  • #1,083
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:22pm Jul 14, 2008 7:22pm
Also looking for ej long at 168.47 as a scalp.
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  • #1,084
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:41pm Jul 14, 2008 7:41pm
Hi,

Took a short trade this morning on the cable looking good at the mo and the next Fib line up is a decent place for a stop on this.

Have a good day guys
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  • #1,085
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:46pm Jul 14, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting Burg611
Hi BRV and all,

I just started reading this thread. Very interesting. I was wondering if someone could tell me which posts contain the description of the way this system works so I can study it. I have been trading with real money for about 8 months now. I am using a system and I am in the black (barely) but it is not giving me the results I had hoped.

Thanks,
Hello, Burg, basically we look for strong support and resistance levels which may serve as key reversal points. I would recommend studying all charts posted by BillyRay in this thread and then look at your own charts to see why those areas were chosen. To determine strong support and resistance levels we see historically significant levels. Fibs and trendlines are second criteria but they work best only when they coincide with historical s/r levels. Also if the price has only recently bounced from a level then it won't be a very strong level anymore.
  • #1,086
  • Jul 14, 2008 7:49pm Jul 14, 2008 7:49pm
Great thread, keep up the good work!
  • #1,087
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:22pm Jul 14, 2008 8:22pm
cable looks like a decent short to me at least from a scalping perspective with very limited risk. just got south...could be a long ride like today's usd/jpy rollercoaster still hangin onto that one
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,088
  • Jul 14, 2008 8:26pm Jul 14, 2008 8:26pm
Seems to me that Asian markets are quite volatile for their own sessions and that is totally unexplainable. Ranges are way bigger than Asian ranges for all majors in past months....I hope I am not misled by extremely technical moves by some "hunters".
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,089
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:01pm Jul 14, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting djambazov84
Seems to me that Asian markets are quite volatile for their own sessions and that is totally unexplainable. Ranges are way bigger than Asian ranges for all majors in past months....I hope I am not misled by extremely technical moves by some "hunters".
NIKKEI down 192.89 points this morning.
  • #1,090
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:07pm Jul 14, 2008 9:07pm
@ BB

apologize my statement was quite confusing, I meant Asian Forex sessions...should I dare add up Sydney ? Just my thoughts. BRV what
what say you ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,091
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:10pm Jul 14, 2008 9:10pm
Hi,

This pair is coming down to that familiar level again. Such a strong support over the weeks that it never seems like the honeymoon will end.If it does the drop should be a nice one because of the stonghold this area has been of late.
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  • #1,092
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:56pm Jul 14, 2008 10:56pm
eur gbp jpy chf ... u name it free fall
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,093
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:54am Jul 15, 2008 12:54am
Quoting Mary Pippins
The 1.9791 level seems like a really strong and proven level and a good opportunity to buy, but price came now 20 pips close to it and bounced for about 80 pips of that level so far.

Should price come down now wouldn't the preceding price movement make the 1.9791 level less likely to hold to the point where the trade is not a No Brainer anymore?
I would tend to use a little more caution, but for an intraday level such as this, price should smack it directly on the head before reversing.
  • #1,094
  • Jul 15, 2008 12:55am Jul 15, 2008 12:55am
Quoting Lenoxer
And I never forget about you, too, Billy. Thanks a lot. Good chart. Good explanation. As usual.

L.
You're welcome! Thanks!
  • #1,095
  • Edited 1:27am Jul 15, 2008 1:05am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting manistra
What do you guys think about trading concept where each trade begins with SL defined, but for disaster protection only. As soon as trade goes in wrong direction i use "soft stop" which triggers usually earlier than "hard stop" if i "feel" trade is going wrong.
In your opinion, is it better to cut losses in a way that every trade begins as a scalp trade until proven otherwise. Are you using "soft stops" (mental stops) and if you do, how common they are in your trades ?

Regards
Good question. Using stop losses in general with this technique is going to require some flexibility, as you're basically looking to not get stopped out if there is another significant level nearby. Thats why if you have any doubts regarding a level it never hurts to go in at a smaller position size and scale your way in if it goes to the next level.

For intraday trading I've done stuff like this before. Today as an example, I wanted to play a bounce off of a support level on CHF, didnt like price action, so I closed some exposure, and the rest went against me. When it did, I was able to get out at about breakeven on the trade (partial profits + partial loss).

I hate to say but I usually go into every trade with low expectations. I always nab some partial as soon as I can at a reasonable amount in relation to the trade expectations (trend, countertrend or trend reversal), and if I have enough room, set the stop loss to breakeven asap. It prevents me from not making money and maintaining consistency in terms of profits. My paycheck is about as reliable as anyone working for a salary basically doing it this way.

If the market just completely blasts away a level, and you were completely wrong, dont waste time, close atleast half of it and maintain your composure to think clearly about what could happen next.
  • #1,096
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:07am Jul 15, 2008 1:07am
Quoting Greenhaze
Is it good oportunity to buy USD/CAD @ 1.0000?

fib/trendline/support confluence and very nice round number.
Same here. I like it and I've been monitoring it for some time now.
  • #1,097
  • Edited 1:28am Jul 15, 2008 1:11am | Edited 1:28am
Quoting good
I also see two possible trades on EURCHF and EURGBP.
Hi good,

Awesome; thanks for putting these up here - I like the eurchf trade a little better honestly because of the number of times the trendline has been hit.

I usually only take trades when they coincide with a diagonal trendline on the third time it is hit (need two points to form it and then the third time worth a bounce). Usually anything more than that and I'm looking for a failure of the diagonal line more than continuation. I dont have any statistics to prove this here, but through experience only I'm speaking.
  • #1,098
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:16am Jul 15, 2008 1:16am
Quoting djambazov84
@ BB

apologize my statement was quite confusing, I meant Asian Forex sessions...should I dare add up Sydney ? Just my thoughts. BRV what
what say you ?
I just say Asia and yeah you're right much more volatility than we are used to. A lot of news has everyone stacking chips and rightfully so.
  • #1,099
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:24am Jul 15, 2008 1:24am
Quoting djambazov84
Good morning Thread/BRV.

First off, BRV thank you for your assertion, I was discussing eur/usd with another member over Skype, but since we both live in the US and thus having to deal with its own unique time boundaries, we concluded that choppy Asian market is just a recipe for a disaster. However, I managed to get short from that tripple top on usd/jpy @ 106.81. Was wondering whether this type of trade should be only confined within the current day or I should actually let it run. Im in for +40p so far and moved SL to break-even. I can not stop but thinking about this magnificent sentence: "Carry trades are slowly unwinding..."

My question to the Thread is: how should I play this one intraday, or just take it one step further...

this is my puzzle and so far my greatest trading weakness...cutting winners short.

Any input would be very appreciated. Happy trading all !
Cutting winners short is fine, as long as you're doing the same thing with any losers and you're winning more than you're losing. The longest I usually keep positions open for is around a week or two, depending on the situation. If I don't have a lot of confidence about something I'll usually take a whole bunch off the trade and just let the rest go do its dirty work.

I used to look at trade journals from portfolio managers managing from $100mm - $500mm in assets and in their notes section after a trade was closed was always some type of comment about how they should have left it open for more profits. So dont feel so bad. This is one of the hardest parts about trading in general. There is a post a ways back about taking profits at certain market obstacles to help overcome this issue.

This is a question based more on experience than anything else, unfortunately. Over time you'll be able to see what moves the market a lot more easily, but its still very tough.
  • #1,100
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:45am Jul 15, 2008 1:45am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.6000 area.

I hope I dont need to explain this one.
The market is on a tear right now but looking across the board there is going to be a good amount of selling interest up there for a countertrend move. I'll probably go for it but with a smaller position size. Stressing caution though.
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