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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #141
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:33am Jul 14, 2008 9:33am
Quoting dtdoom
Anybody trade today?

Now is back to 0%

I ran it on a simulator and the best exits I got were -55 on €/$ and +72 on $/CHF. (short entries @ 1.5845 and 1.0245)

Thats shortly after the divergence went negative to -0.03% on €/CHF.

So, +17 before trade cost....not bad for the low risk involved.

regards,
daytrading
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  • #142
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:39am Jul 14, 2008 9:39am
hi...



So tell me....why, when all these people took trades today....nobody mentions it till after the trade closes....

We are all learning here...so winning or losing trades ,,,its all a learning experience at the moment
  • #143
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:44am Jul 14, 2008 9:44am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Thread,

What would be the difference in relationship between a straight EURUSD/USDCHF hedge trade vs. a trade that consisted of three legs: EURUSD and USDCHF in opposite directions (i.e. unhedged) and using EURCHF to hedge the first two legs?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
1) 3 times cost vs. 2

2) no more dollar neutral - you can't hedge a directional dollar position with EUR/CHF

regards
daytrading
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  • #144
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:47am Jul 14, 2008 9:47am
I think trades have to start around EU sesion and Close it if is possible around 18:00 GMT. It's possible also to close at later US close, but I think is a litle bit out of chances to open a trade at this time.

just a guess!
  • #145
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:49am Jul 14, 2008 9:49am
Quoting Angler
Hi...


Yes I did....but only on a demo...as I want to see how the pairs move..


Getting in when ECH +0.30 CHF @ 1.0228 and EUR @ 1.5866

This trade would have been profitable about +33 pips now..
Angler,

would that be by closing both legs at the same time??

regards
daytrading
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  • #146
  • Jul 14, 2008 9:57am Jul 14, 2008 9:57am
Does all trades taken at -0.2 always return in profits at -0.0 level?
  • #147
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:02am Jul 14, 2008 10:02am
Quoting forexwoman
Does all trades taken at -0.2 always return in profits at -0.0 level?
Hi,

I suspect as long as the correlation between the 2 pairs is working, you might not get the same return each time....but you have virtually no risk as long as you're in the trade.

regards
daytrading
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  • #148
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:08am Jul 14, 2008 10:08am
Quoting daytrading
Hi,

I suspect as long as the correlation between the 2 pairs is working, you might not get the same return each time....but you have virtually no risk as long as you're in the trade.

regards
daytrading
I think there is plenty of risk.
Look back on a chart.
  • #149
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:10am Jul 14, 2008 10:10am
SwingMan,
The EA and indicator still show different numbers.

The "spread" shown on the indicator is the same as the ECH value on the EA, but the pink and green show other values.

Is this normal?

Thanks
  • #150
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:16am Jul 14, 2008 10:16am
Quoting billbss
I think there is plenty of risk.
Look back on a chart.

Billbss,

Explain the risk to me -

Throughout the whole session the spread was never more than 5 to 7 ticks max. offside.

regards,
daytrading
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  • #151
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:18am Jul 14, 2008 10:18am
Quoting billbss
I think there is plenty of risk.
Look back on a chart.
Yep, you got that right. You don't even have to look back that far to see long-duration EUR/CHF trends. These are what can kill you.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #152
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:22am Jul 14, 2008 10:22am
Quoting daytrading
Billbss,

Explain the risk to me -

Throughout the whole session the spread was never more than 5 to 7 ticks max. offside.

regards,
daytrading
You're talking about one day. You cannot base anything on a single days activity.

Look back on a chart of EUR/CHF. When you see it in a big trend, up or down, figure you'll be in it trading the other way, hoping for a retrace. That's the basis of the method.

Spieler posted some ways to mitigate the risk. Even he has never said there is no risk.
  • #153
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:28am Jul 14, 2008 10:28am
Quoting billbss
You're talking about one day. You cannot base anything on a single days activity.

Look back on a chart of EUR/CHF. When you see it in a big trend, up or down, figure you'll be in it trading the other way, hoping for a retrace. That's the basis of the method.

Spieler posted some ways to mitigate the risk. Even he has never claimed there is no risk.
Billbss,

Please don't quote me wrong. I never said there was no risk.

Secondly, when you see big moves on EUR/CHF, what do you think EUR/USD and USD/CHF will be doing?

EUR/CHF is a synthetic pair derived from the 2 majors - and while you are in the majors, you are dollar neutral.....so you are only affected by the widening/narrowing of the spread.

That in turn means that your risk is extremely low.

regards,
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #154
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:42am Jul 14, 2008 10:42am
Quoting daytrading
Billbss,

Please don't quote me wrong. I never said there was no risk.

Secondly, when you see big moves on EUR/CHF, what do you think EUR/USD and USD/CHF will be doing?

EUR/CHF is a synthetic pair derived from the 2 majors - and while you are in the majors, you are dollar neutral.....so you are only affected by the widening/narrowing of the spread.

That in turn means that your risk is extremely low.

regards,
daytrading
You said "show me the risk" or something close to that.
Implying there was no risk.

I disagree with your comments.

If EUR/CHF is going up you will be short the spread. You will be trading in the opposite direction.

There is nothing magical about the "hedge" as compared to a straight directional trade with EUR/CHF.

If you compare EUR/CHF with a 1:1.5 ratio to EUR/USE-USD/CHF hedge you will need a microscope to tell the difference.


There is risk in all trading. The point is not is there risk in this (there is), the point is does it show overall profit.
  • #155
  • Jul 14, 2008 10:42am Jul 14, 2008 10:42am
another test drive:

just hit -0.2% on eur/chf

long eur/usd @ 1.5901
long usd/chf @ 1.0175

1 lot vs 1.6 lots

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #156
  • Jul 14, 2008 11:10am Jul 14, 2008 11:10am
Quoting billbss
You said "show me the risk" or something close to that.
Implying there was no risk.

I disagree with your comments.

If EUR/CHF is going up you will be short the spread. You will be trading in the opposite direction.

There is nothing magical about the "hedge" as compared to a straight directional trade with EUR/CHF.

If you compare EUR/CHF with a 1:1.5 ratio to EUR/USE-USD/CHF hedge you will need a microscope to tell the difference.


There is risk in all trading. The point is not is there risk in this (there is), the point is does it show overall profit.
Billbss,

2) Please dont tell me that spread trading these paires is the same as trading eur/chf outright, please dont write that even if you can copy it from supposed serious web site. The ones saying that have never follow days and night as i did the 3 paires together.

The above is a quote from Spieler's first post, which means you disagree with him as well, right?

I do know when I am long or short the spread - I have traded yield curve spreads on Interest Rate Swaps and Options for more than 15 years.

The microscopic spread you are refering to is called triangular arbitrage and is not the same as spread trading.

Again, I never said there was no risk - I said the risk is extremely low compared to outright directional positions.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #157
  • Jul 14, 2008 11:18am Jul 14, 2008 11:18am
Quoting daytrading
Billbss,

2) Please dont tell me that spread trading these paires is the same as trading eur/chf outright, please dont write that even if you can copy it from supposed serious web site. The ones saying that have never follow days and night as i did the 3 paires together.

The above is a quote from Spieler's first post, which means you disagree with him as well, right?

I do know when I am long or short the spread - I have traded yield curve spreads on Interest Rate Swaps and Options for more than 15 years.

The microscopic spread you are refering to is called triangular arbitrage and is not the same as spread trading.

Again, I never said there was no risk - I said the risk is extremely low compared to outright directional positions.

regards
daytrading

I don't agree with you and we'll leave it at that.
  • #158
  • Jul 14, 2008 11:18am Jul 14, 2008 11:18am
I believe we should do some manual backtesting for 3-4 months to see about the extent of risk(if any) involved. Any suggestions?
  • #159
  • Jul 14, 2008 11:25am Jul 14, 2008 11:25am
Quoting daytrading
another test drive:

just hit -0.2% on eur/chf

long eur/usd @ 1.5901
long usd/chf @ 1.0175

1 lot vs 1.6 lots

regards
daytrading
Closing the trade at -0.12% on eur/chf

closed eur/usd long @ 1.5912 (+11)
closed usd/chf long @ 1.0174 (-1.6)

9.4 ticks before cost

regards
daytrading
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  • #160
  • Jul 14, 2008 11:31am Jul 14, 2008 11:31am
Quoting billbss
I don't agree with you and we'll leave it at that.
Billbss,

please don't be obnoxious and tell me what WE will do - if YOU want to leave it, that's fine by me.

regards
daytrading
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