4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

...which pair are you talking about?

EU, I'm trying to master EU before looking at anything else.

GBPUSD has formed a bullish TC from SMA89/EMA8.
Bad thing is that signal bar is too big - R:R may be Ok only with partial opening or full lot at X% retracement of the signal bar. But even if to open 0.2 from market, 0.3 at 38.2% retracement and 0.5 at 50% retracement, SL is about 45 pips. If to enter full lot at 50% retracement - 33 pips, 38.2% - 45 pips.

Calculations:
Open price: 1.9906. Medium opening price: 1.9884 (1.9906, 1.9885, 1.9874)
SL Price: 1.9845, SL: 61 pips. Medium SL (with partial opening): 39 (61, 40, 29) pips
TP price: 0.5/1.9924, 0.5/1.9998, TP: 55 (18, 92) pips. Medium TP (with partial opening): 77 (40, 114) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 0.90.
Conclusion: trade is BAD either because of a big SL or poor R:R-ratio.
PARTIAL OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.97.
Conclusion: trade is OK.

Decision:
I'm out - the train migh have gone. Will watch the possible retracement maybe...
Any thoughts?

EURUSD retraced below EMA8 and now is moving away, bullish engulfing, but MACD hasn't given a TC yet. On 1H price made a roundish turning, on MACD - a big ZB.

Calculations are Ok:
Open price: 1.5886
SL Price: 1.5854, SL: 32 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.5917, 0.5/1.5942, TP: 43 (31, 56) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.34.
Conclusion: trade is OK.

Decision:
No MACD signal - no trade.
Any thought?

My charts are showing a TC signal at 1.5904 and no signal below that. Can go either way at the moment, No red news soon, so looks to me like a dangerous play. I would say certainly wait for this 4 hr candle to close.

Looks like price found support at 1.5843.

I'm thinking it going up, but that's emotion talking, and we must let the trade come to us.

I'm getting tired sitting on the sidelines and waiting though

Yorik, look to my Chart, you remember, i have different close-time because of 00.00 GMT broker and look at these long tails the last three bars before the running bar. Looks to me, as if the TL could be broken. Could this change your decision?
regards, Michael

Candle just closed with no TC signal. Long tails both up and down. Range of 70 pips or so (1.5910 to 1.5840). Off out now as I'm going to wait for the next close. Wish I had a smartphone now.

yorik:
i bought eu after that big bullish H1 candle bout 1:30 hours ago and now looknig for possible buy for eu and gu in M5 chart

Hi Phillip and all fellow traders.
It’s my first post so I’d like to thank you millions of times for your great job in creating this profitable system and your and all thread members effort in helping each others. Wonderful job.
According to virus I can’t help but I’d like to advise you as soon as you cope yourself with this nasty bastard you can install Norton Ghost 14.0 program in your computer when you have clean and healthy system. Then you can make your system partition image copy. Next time when you have some virus or other problem you will be able to restore your system partition from this image in a matter of 5 or 10 minutes. I practice it already long time and always with success. The program isn’t very expensive (around 75$) but it can save you countless hours of rebuilding your system from the beginning.
I’m with you guys from the beginning. So far I wasn’t good enough to share with you my Forex experiences but I hope it’s already changed and I’ll be able to help either.
Jacek

thanks buddy for ur chart,,,,
,i m out for bad luck..

My summer holidays are over and now back to work

Anyway I took a E/U trade earlier but decided it wasn't really for me and closed with just 2 pips profit. I did this because I wasn't really convinced the "possible" TC was off the 8, this is because price has moved between the 8 and 21. Anyway as it is so far the TC hasn't formed on the 4H although it may still do so.

This leads me to a question I have asked before but don't remember what the answer was. Anyway if price moves as it did today between 8 and 21 and then gives TC what do we use as the stop ??? I have been looking into using the 4H open / close level (not high/low), as the MA's don't seem to make so much sense in this case. Oh and should we even be taking it in these conditions I have seen quite a lot fail when it is like this.

Thoughts ??? Philip ????

I also watched the G/U move today and decided against it, massive risk / stop placement on this one. Again using candle open / close would have been the solution especially if taking the early entry on 1H.

This is something I aim to look into more in the coming months.

Why didn't anyone take the TC in cable? i took it for 39pips.
Was it only luck for me? Phillip why didn't you take this chance?

Sorry about the major delay.

Daily Wrapup July 11: Trailing Stops

The reason I use trailing stops is because I cannot watch my trades live. That's why I usually have a 20 or 25 pip gain. I close half of the position, and put the remainder on a 20 or 25 pip trailing stop. When my profit target is about 40 pips or less, I will take profit with 20 pips and put a 20 pip trailing stop. When my profit target is more than 40 pips, I'll close half my position after 25 pips, and put the rest on a 25 trailing stop.
I've included three options here (see chart, p. 1072). If you look at the one hour, you can follow that red horizontal line. The moment the next candle opens up and moves upwards, you can start moving your stop loss to the opening price of that candle. Especially if it's a nice long candle you can do that. The last one I've put just below that brownish line because that is a top trendline. If you think it might pull back down to it before carrying on going upwards, you can make it a fixed stop loss there or you can use the 8 EMA as a stop loss in the 1 Hour. The 8 EMA is currently below the top TL, but as time goes on it will go up and they will meet one another.
The 15 Minutes I like to trail two candles more or less. As the price goes up, you can use the 21 EMA as your stop loss. That is another option.
Then the 5 Minutes is the last one. You can see there the price pulled back to the 8 EMA and went upwards, pulled back to the 8 EMA and went upwards, pulled back to the 8 EMA. Every time it did that you can move your stop loss where I've indicated those red lines. And then as it ran you can put the SL on the 21 EMA.
You can Google, there are some EAs out there that will close a trade on a certain moving average.
Be careful on the 1 Hour to use the 8 EMA not at the beginning, but as the price moves away from the 8 EMA that you can start using it as a stop loss. Otherwise, at the beginning you'll be closed out quite often.
Sometimes price will retrace 20 pips and take you out, but it all depends on what is your profit target and what do you think this price is going to do. I know what you think is not really an answer because it's all about anticipation. What you can do is after 25 pips and you've taken some profit off the table, is put the stop at break even and put a 25, 30 or 35 pip trailing stop. Especially at the beginning, if the move is fast and it moves 30 pips up and pulls back 20 or 25 pips, and that is when a 20 trailing stop is taken out. So when the price is moving up or down very fast, you can even use an even larger trailing stop of 30 or 35 or even 40 pips. But that is just optional. There is no rule. Sometimes you're going to find that a 20 trailing stop works beautifully, and the next time it doesn't work because of the volatility of the market. So it's difficult to say "yes, you can do it this way." Go to the 5 Minutes and see what kind of pullbacks it is giving. The 5 Minutes is a very good indication. The 21 EMA and even the 50 SMA is a very good indication of pullbacks when the price starts moving. It's very important to see what speed the market is. If you look at the 5 Minute inset there, you can see that the price moved on the 8 EMA so it was a fast move going upwards. If it was on the 21 EMA, you know you can follow your stop below the 21 even on the 5 Minutes. But that is just an option that you can take.
Let me look at the main graph at the three circles there. I can remember some asking whether that wasn't the correct trendline. After it broke out yesterday, it pulled back and started moving away with that nice bullish candle. That was the correct trendline to draw through the three points where those red circles are. I missed the trade today because I could not be there, but this was a nice breakout pullback and carry-on trade. On the Interbank platform I saw there was a TC that people could take. This was a normal breakout trade pullback.
Ok. Triangles. Someone asked why I thought it was going up. There was higher lows on the price itself. Last night I had the price on the top of the trendline, and the price has formed a nice little round bottom, indicating a high-probability breakout to the top. That is why I expected it yesterday.

Good for you! I didn't take this setup mainly because the signal bar was too big (SL=>60 pips).

By the way, at the moment EURUSD (GMT+1) has given a bullish TC, but, again, SL must be =>55 pips, and markets are slowing down. I'm out.

Could not trade today due to work conditions. I am still busy fighting that virus on my laptop

Very good Hijackxx. Damn, I've lost this setup. Wait for another one...

Phillip, have you already tried to enter in safe mode and delete the virus manually??

Whare are the virus? \system32? I should try, after delete it, delete their entries on registry.

Go to Run->regedit and search for the .dll or the name of the infected archive and delete the keys, mayber works.

Philip I had the same virus 1 month ago.Actually it is not a virus-some kind of worm who apeared in your system do to some adware.I was ready to make format C: untill a close friend advice me to use : I scan with Spybot-Search and Destroy and with Spyware Terminator and the rest was Kaspersky antiviruis scan.I I did in safe mode-it is best solution.And it gone forever.While I had this kind of virus-my mozilla firefox had problems and I actually can not browse.After using these 3 programs I am out with this virus or worm.It woked on my computer.I wish you to have some success very soon.I think Spybot do all the thing and it had gone.I wish you luck and to remove that kind of virus or worm very soon.Good luck.

All this time I think I've been looking out for the wrong thing. I've been waiting for a TC pattern when in actual fact this is looking like a lovely Lower High.
I like this system, but you need patience, good eyes, and people that know what they're doing.

What about ewido online scan?