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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #11,621
  • Jul 12, 2008 1:11pm Jul 12, 2008 1:11pm
Oil
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  • #11,622
  • Edited 4:41pm Jul 12, 2008 2:09pm | Edited 4:41pm
Well it did break down it just found support pretty quick.
Mind you it is the weekly and the bar hasn't been taken out decisively and it may still fall yet.

Quoting gagiul
everything here looks great. but how about PBs that fail? and on weekly TFs?
this one was not in traffic, but at a swing high, touched a PPZ as you call it and so on.
Anyone shorted this PB on EY?
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #11,623
  • Jul 12, 2008 2:28pm Jul 12, 2008 2:28pm
You have to be careful with those yen pairs. They run right with equities and the dollar index. Once rumors started running yesterday about the Federal Reserve helping out Fannie and Freddie, equities recovered and so did the carry trade pairs.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,624
  • Jul 12, 2008 3:14pm Jul 12, 2008 3:14pm
Thanks James
Pls I Want To Know How I Can Get Trend Signal Indicator.i Would Be Glad If You Help Me Out. And How I Can Learn From Todd Mitchel. Thanks James.
  • #11,625
  • Jul 12, 2008 6:08pm Jul 12, 2008 6:08pm
I like the look of this Aussie pinbar. Not sure about trading against the trend though.
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If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #11,626
  • Jul 13, 2008 4:51am Jul 13, 2008 4:51am
Thanks a lot Raczek, I would really care to see how you trade that BEOVB and learn it from you. Im not saying that the BEOVB wasnt profitable or it couldnt have been if traded smartly, but do you agree that just trading with the trend, i.e. placing buy orders at 1.5650 was much more profitable in this case? I suppose that after such a strong BEOVB you would normally expect a drop to 1.5350 or so...

OK, I will PM you for the password.

Quoting raczekfx
hey gagiul,
The single key to success is your risk controll and knowing where to take profit.
R
Amen to that.
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We leave no soldier behind.
  • #11,627
  • Jul 13, 2008 5:20am Jul 13, 2008 5:20am
Quoting Bones
Well it did break down it just found support pretty quick.
Mind you it is the weekly and the bar hasn't been taken out decisively and it may still fall yet.
Hey Bones, thanks a lot for your insight. I got really disappointed to see that this almost perfect PB, in my opinion, didnt play out as I was expecting. I had a sell order at the 38% ret, 167.80, with a stop 5 pips + spread above the PB, 169.55. I was expecting a drop to at least 165, first strong support IMO.
According to the fact that the PB was right at the top of the all time highs for EY, so a very strong PPZ, and EY was in a rising wedge, and most surely super-overbought, I was expecting this trade to be a success.

Oh well, as they say, s** happens.

P.S. I didnt see the second PB or doji as a warning sign, I saw it as a confirmation of the coming down move why did you see it as a warning?
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We leave no soldier behind.
  • #11,628
  • Edited 7:24am Jul 13, 2008 7:10am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting raczekfx
The single key to success is your risk controll and knowing where to take profit.

R
I am going to jumble a few words together. Please feel free to ignore.

IMHO what appears to separate James16 from many other traders of pin bar/price action is his ability to read the price and exit a position when it will only run for a handful of pips in his favor. After reading his posts showing previous pin bar setups I see he can still make a small profit in this kind of scenario or get out at break even when most of us would find it difficult knowing whether to hold/take profit which is way harder than most will estimate and this can lead to losses.

Hindsight will make it look much easier when we are going over historical data but it is hard to do in real time.

As most people know this is a tough business to be successful in and I would be suprised if there are many traders taking money from the markets on a consistent basis trading discretionary price action - over a reasonable amount of time > than a few months on these forums. Of course it does happen but I would not be in the least bit suprised if you could count the amount of people on one hand.

I have seen some (by my estimation intelligent people) speak of success only to lose much of their profits at a later date and this does seem to be a regular pattern. I am not talking about newbies here.

Negative.....no
Realistic.....yes

I have been trading (on a small scale) price action in some way shape or form for a few years now and am still around break even with the business venture (actually a bit in the red if including expenditure on training material and the usual expenses which are to be expected when starting a business). I can see the potential in trading as a long term business but also have my feet firmly on the ground. I have no problem in investigating this business avenue and spending untold hours studying etc because I would not be where I am in my career now if I did not have this attitude.

My view on price action is that the knowledge I gain in these early stages will stand me in good stead if I decide to commit real money to the markets after proving an edge over a period of time. Even then there is a risk involved of this not working out but this is what we do as traders we are risk managers and where there is risk there is potential profits.

Will this be as a discretionary price action trader taking pin bars at swing high lows etc? Maybe... or maybe I will utilise what I learn here as a filter in a more structured system which has been suggested to me by an old (he wouldn't like me calling him old) pit trader I have been fortunate enough to speak with)

If this post makes one person think about things a bit harder before loosing some of their hard earned cash thinking price action trading is easy (it may be simple but it sure isn't easy) it was worth it.

I also have no problem if anyone wants to reply to this post saying it is easy they take 40% a month...etc..etc. I am honestly very happy for you if that is the case but you are the exception and please be careful with your leverage.

Please anyone reading this take your time and don't think trading these bars is an easy road to success.

I will finish by saying that I think this can be done but people need to realise how hard this can potentially be.

FXP
  • #11,629
  • Jul 13, 2008 7:34am Jul 13, 2008 7:34am
Quoting fxprocessor
I will finish by saying that I think this can be done but people need to realise how hard this can potentially be.
FXP
I think you got the spot on here. Myself and probably others too forget that even PA is not as easy as it seems. A nice PB on the Weekly may look really appealing and easy to trade, but when the new week starts, you realize that things are not going as you would have expected, and you need to put in a lot more effort and knowledge and attention to trade it right and make money.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #11,630
  • Jul 13, 2008 7:35am Jul 13, 2008 7:35am
Hello Raczekfx,

What a great reminder !!

Regarding the EURJPY weekly trade, would you mind to send me the password in order to understand clearly your statement ?

Thanks for your attention,

Happy trading,

Cheers

Angel65
  • #11,631
  • Jul 13, 2008 7:38am Jul 13, 2008 7:38am
Quoting gagiul
I think you got the spot on here. Myself and probably others too forget that even PA is not as easy as it seems. A nice PB on the Weekly may look really appealing and easy to trade, but when the new week starts, you realize that things are not going as you would have expected, and you need to put in a lot more effort and knowledge and attention to trade it right and make money.
Yes, agree with you 100%. Been there done that...Nothing is this life comes easy, but with hard work and devotion everybody can be what they wanna be.
  • #11,632
  • Jul 13, 2008 11:22am Jul 13, 2008 11:22am
Hi fxp
Would appreciate your advice
Quoting fxprocessor
I am going to jumble a few words together. Please feel free to ignore.

IMHO what appears to separate James16 from many other traders of pin bar/price action is his ability to read the price and exit a position when it will only run for a handful of pips in his favor. After reading his posts showing previous pin bar setups I see he can still make a small profit in this kind of scenario or get out at break even when most of us would find it difficult knowing whether to hold/take profit which is way harder than most will estimate and this can lead to losses.

Hindsight will make it look much easier when we are going over historical data but it is hard to do in real time.

As most people know this is a tough business to be successful in and I would be suprised if there are many traders taking money from the markets on a consistent basis trading discretionary price action - over a reasonable amount of time > than a few months on these forums. Of course it does happen but I would not be in the least bit suprised if you could count the amount of people on one hand.

I have seen some (by my estimation intelligent people) speak of success only to lose much of their profits at a later date and this does seem to be a regular pattern. I am not talking about newbies here.

Negative.....no
Realistic.....yes

I have been trading (on a small scale) price action in some way shape or form for a few years now and am still around break even with the business venture (actually a bit in the red if including expenditure on training material and the usual expenses which are to be expected when starting a business). I can see the potential in trading as a long term business but also have my feet firmly on the ground. I have no problem in investigating this business avenue and spending untold hours studying etc because I would not be where I am in my career now if I did not have this attitude.

My view on price action is that the knowledge I gain in these early stages will stand me in good stead if I decide to commit real money to the markets after proving an edge over a period of time. Even then there is a risk involved of this not working out but this is what we do as traders we are risk managers and where there is risk there is potential profits.

Will this be as a discretionary price action trader taking pin bars at swing high lows etc? Maybe... or maybe I will utilise what I learn here as a filter in a more structured system which has been suggested to me by an old (he wouldn't like me calling him old) pit trader I have been fortunate enough to speak with)
*Would appreciate details of the structured system and how it could fit with price action - always keen to learn about complimentary trading ideas.

If this post makes one person think about things a bit harder before loosing some of their hard earned cash thinking price action trading is easy (it may be simple but it sure isn't easy) it was worth it.

I also have no problem if anyone wants to reply to this post saying it is easy they take 40% a month...etc..etc. I am honestly very happy for you if that is the case but you are the exception and please be careful with your leverage.

Please anyone reading this take your time and don't think trading these bars is an easy road to success. True - fundamentals are important to

I will finish by saying that I think this can be done but people need to realise how hard this can potentially be. Been working at it for three years - and still learning..............

FXP
  • #11,633
  • Jul 13, 2008 11:44am Jul 13, 2008 11:44am
Quoting SimonK
I like the look of this Aussie pinbar. Not sure about trading against the trend though.
Look where price stopped and was rejected at .9643, especially on daily. The move is over for me.
  • #11,634
  • Edited 12:00pm Jul 13, 2008 11:50am | Edited 12:00pm
Hi Gagiul
Firstly I might say that I have never traded this pair and I too am really just learning .
The pin itself was sweet but it was against a strong trend and the next TF up so trades should be entered with caution. A much better pin to take would be one on the fall in the direction of the trend.
I mean all the price action was above the main rising trend line wasn’t it and that line still holds strong .In fact the new TL after the indecisive bar was confirmed as good when touched.
A pin bar of any kind can be good for any amount of pips large or small once broke look down or up for support or resistance to hold/fail, maybe drop down a TF to check PA on arrival.
When the pin broke found support and the created an indecisive bar meaning to me that the market itself was undecided on direction. That’s not J16 it’s just me lol.





Quoting gagiul
Hey Bones, thanks a lot for your insight. I got really disappointed to see that this almost perfect PB, in my opinion, didnt play out as I was expecting. I had a sell order at the 38% ret, 167.80, with a stop 5 pips + spread above the PB, 169.55. I was expecting a drop to at least 165, first strong support IMO.
According to the fact that the PB was right at the top of the all time highs for EY, so a very strong PPZ, and EY was in a rising wedge, and most surely super-overbought, I was expecting this trade to be a success.

Oh well, as they say, s** happens.

P.S. I didnt see the second PB or doji as a warning sign, I saw it as a confirmation of the coming down move why did you see it as a warning?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #11,635
  • Jul 13, 2008 11:56am Jul 13, 2008 11:56am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Look where price stopped and was rejected at .9643, especially on daily. The move is over for me.
You could be right HipsterPipster!
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #11,636
  • Jul 13, 2008 12:16pm Jul 13, 2008 12:16pm
Hi FXP
Thanks for the pm. Looks like we are on the same learning journey
  • #11,637
  • Jul 13, 2008 12:16pm Jul 13, 2008 12:16pm
Quoting raczekfx

I’ll be sailing away from FF for a while as it becomes more and more hostile place.
R
Oh that would be a tragedy think of all the good you do .
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #11,638
  • Edited 1:11pm Jul 13, 2008 12:36pm | Edited 1:11pm
I just wanted to add to FXP that there's one thing always true:

Trading can be dirt simple, but for almost anyone(starting out) it is NEVER easy.

This isn't because the trading bit isn't possible(or possible to be easy); it's because people aren't easy.

I dare to say:
Trading requires many things as characteristics that are the exact opposite of the things that people lured to forex often possess.

I would even say that, for many, if they did not have the characteristics initially that WILL MAKE YOU FAIL IN FOREX, they would probably not have been interested in forex in the first place.

How is that for irony?

If anyone cares what some of those might be: need for instant satisfaction/high hopes for quick returns ==> also greed, impatience, lack of discipline, easy high emotional involvement.

-

Trading is almost exclusively about yourself after a certain point X of "getting it".

But this is getting too off topic and I don't want this to turn into a sidetracking discussion. I really don't.

But over at J16 this is one of things that I am slowly starting to realize is more important to coach people at/with, than almost any of their basic pattern recognition.
The more I watched myself on my own journey, the more I watched others on theirs, the more apparent it became that the real education really happens mostly inside our own head and that account growth very often links up with personality/character growth / behavioral adjustment.

Okay, enough excursion. I just want to put a big emphasis on and underline the fact that the idea of J16 is not just to have a place with a handful more super-secret hidden setups and PA, but imho also(and imho more importantly) geared towards resolving the exact dilemma just described above.
I certainly can say that that's what I've got my eye on.

And this, much more than the question whether approach x, y, or z is so much easier or cooler as a system or approach(heck there is almost an infinite supply of systems), is what gives the environment the value in my opinion.

The confrontation with yourself(and different ideas). If, that is, you allow it to happen.


-
Personally, I realized several times that I very often instead just got lost in the day-to-day FF fray. What I dub "gamble trades" often increased with posting intensity.
It was the isolating myself/taking breaks and retreating to a more controlled environment that helped me in getting more perspective on myself and my trading again.

There is just so incredibly much noise in the open.
One gets lured into FAR too much involvement.
I think this is a dangerous trap for almost any trader.

All of the above thoughts are just my personal opinion as someone who has traversed a variety of forums and gone through a lot of changing phases myself.

You should never just take my words and posts for granted(I've also posted a lot of silly stuff over the thousands) and you should always be skeptical of anyone on a forum.
Regardless.
This is how I feel it is.
My single, individual perception only, and so far.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #11,639
  • Jul 13, 2008 12:43pm Jul 13, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting raczekfx
I’ll be sailing away from FF for a while as it becomes more and more hostile place. Time is way too valuable for me.
Happy trading to all.
R
Raczekfx, you and I have never coressponded but I did not want you to go away without saying thanks for all of your great info and charts. I have not taken them for granted. Best regards to you.

KISSFan
  • #11,640
  • Jul 13, 2008 1:48pm Jul 13, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting raczekfx

I’ll be sailing away from FF for a while as it becomes more and more hostile place. Time is way too valuable for me.
Happy trading to all.
R

Raczekfx,

Thanks for taking the time to post your charts and comments. They were appreciated and will be missed.
Thank you,
Dave
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