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  • #1,021
  • Jul 11, 2008 6:04am Jul 11, 2008 6:04am
Negative Canada payroll numbers just bid the USD/CAD into some pretty strong resistance. With futures looking to start down, and oil going up, would this seem like a good short at its price levels of 1.015?

BTW, not looking for a trade here, just trying to see if I've got my head around it.
  • #1,022
  • Jul 11, 2008 6:31am Jul 11, 2008 6:31am
Quoting finswin56
Negative Canada payroll numbers just bid the USD/CAD into some pretty strong resistance. With futures looking to start down, and oil going up, would this seem like a good short at its price levels of 1.015?

BTW, not looking for a trade here, just trying to see if I've got my head around it.
guess not. Up to 1.017 now.
  • #1,023
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:00am Jul 11, 2008 7:00am
Another Intraday question, if that's okay.

USD/JPY finally broke through some tough support (at least "finally" for my patience). Now if you're looking to sell on rallies (assuming futures keep this down move going) do you look at the most recent support levels, a little further back like 106.68 area, or something else?
Since this move was not news driven, it would seem to be more technically sound, right?
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  • #1,024
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:47am Jul 11, 2008 7:47am
Quoting finswin56
Another Intraday question, if that's okay.

USD/JPY finally broke through some tough support (at least "finally" for my patience). Now if you're looking to sell on rallies (assuming futures keep this down move going) do you look at the most recent support levels, a little further back like 106.68 area, or something else?
Since this move was not news driven, it would seem to be more technically sound, right?
First of all your charts look good. Yeah like this one is just a little more tough to judge but 106.60-68 I would say (1 hour chart); in that range, based on where price is now (106.23).
  • #1,025
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:50am Jul 11, 2008 7:50am
Quoting oakmac
I cannot tell you how much this makes sense to me now. I've had some terrible problems getting whipsawed on false breakouts in the past. Thanks for your insight!

Now waiting to see what happens when it touches 1.5800 again. If it is support I'll go long again and try to snag a few more pips.
Broke a little lower than expected but you could have scored around 60-70 pips on this - I got my chunk. Did you?
  • #1,026
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:51am Jul 11, 2008 7:51am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
First of all your charts look good. Yeah like this one is just a little more tough to judge but 106.60-68 I would say (1 hour chart); in that range.
Thanks!

The way this thing is going, might not be much pull back to that level. However prices have pulled back to the 106.25 range which isn't on that chart, but was another level I had marked as a low from a few days ago, and is right around today's S2. I know you don't love pivots, but like you've said this one is right around a recent support level that prices jumped off of.
  • #1,027
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:52am Jul 11, 2008 7:52am
Quoting finswin56
Thanks!

The way this thing is going, might not be much pull back to that level. However prices have pulled back to the 106.25 range which isn't on that chart, but was another level I had marked as a low from a few days ago, and is right around today's S2. I know you don't love pivots, but like you've said this one is right around a recent support level that prices jumped off of.
No whatever.....you're on the right track keep it up. I'm seeing more posts coming in from people before these trades take place and best part is they are all making money. Very well done everyone. Think I'm going to cry now .
  • #1,028
  • Jul 11, 2008 7:57am Jul 11, 2008 7:57am
Dear BRV,

Interesting question from Visual One, post #1012. ---I assume he means go long/short the spot and hedge the position with ultra cheap options so you can leverage up and by the time the options expire you can segue to using a regular stop. Whaddya think?

Thanks,

L.
  • #1,029
  • Jul 11, 2008 8:02am Jul 11, 2008 8:02am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
No whatever.....you're on the right track keep it up. I'm seeing more posts coming in from people before these trades take place and best part is they are all making money. Very well done everyone. Think I'm going to cry now .
You should be pretty darn proud. You've obviously done well on your own accord, but you've also clearly been able to educate know nothings like me. Heck, I didn't even know what a Fib was a few months ago.
  • #1,030
  • Jul 11, 2008 8:07am Jul 11, 2008 8:07am
Dear BRV,

Sorry for the following dumb question: when you are drawing horizontal lines for resistance, are you drawing your lines always at the bottoms of bars or sometimes do you draw the lines at the tops of the bars (and the reverse question for support)?

Thanks,

L.
  • #1,031
  • Jul 11, 2008 8:20am Jul 11, 2008 8:20am
Quoting Visual One
Dear Thread,

Did anyone ever consider putting on a large position when you have the confluence of a no brainer trade combined with a cheap ATM option, i.e. 2-3 days to expiry? ---In short, the options would give you the ability to survive all heat so you could completely define your risk and hence put on a large position.

Visual One
Yeah its actually an interesting idea, but usually the drawdown doesnt last very long, if at all. Like this last AUD trade was a big rarity. I suppose if I were to buy protective puts while the trade was in the money thats a possible option, but that's sort of a whole 'nother concept and defeats what you're saying here. In terms of risk, you would have to define the time you're allowing the trade to be in the red versus the theta on the option. Either way, you're still basing it off of what you expect the spot price to do, not to mention you don't want to lose any money on the put, so you would have to close it at breakeven. Hmmm...so not so sure. If you have any other ideas about it however I'd like to hear them.
  • #1,032
  • Jul 11, 2008 8:24am Jul 11, 2008 8:24am
I wonder how far through this trend line and resistance confluence the EUR will go?
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  • #1,033
  • Jul 11, 2008 8:54am Jul 11, 2008 8:54am
So part of me wants to start buying the dollar, wondering just how oversold it is having hit some major resistance levels and pulled back. However, the other part of me that likes to keep my money is scared to death of going against such a strong trend, especially on a Friday.

I've taken my final profits at those extreme levels and will now watch and learn... probably with envy of those of you still raking in the pips.
  • #1,034
  • Jul 11, 2008 9:05am Jul 11, 2008 9:05am
anybody in UJ trade 105.71?
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  • #1,035
  • Jul 11, 2008 9:08am Jul 11, 2008 9:08am
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This worked out nice
"In Fibs I Trust"
  • #1,036
  • Jul 11, 2008 9:08am Jul 11, 2008 9:08am
Quoting finswin56
So part of me wants to start buying the dollar, wondering just how oversold it is having hit some major resistance levels and pulled back. However, the other part of me that likes to keep my money is scared to death of going against such a strong trend, especially on a Friday.

I've taken my final profits at those extreme levels and will now watch and learn... probably with envy of those of you still raking in the pips.
With the idiots running our country, it seems like it just can't go low enough....as depressing as that it.

That's just one thing in Forex that I'm scared to death to mess with...going long on the Dollar.
  • #1,037
  • Jul 11, 2008 9:09am Jul 11, 2008 9:09am
Quoting good
anybody in UJ trade 105.71?
I desperately wanted to go in a little higher than that at at 105.92 (the last support when UJ went up last week), but lacked the sack to buck today's trend. S&P is still down, but only half of what it was.

Good luck!
  • #1,038
  • Jul 11, 2008 9:14am Jul 11, 2008 9:14am
Quoting saint_berzer
With the idiots running our country, it seems like it just can't go low enough....as depressing as that it.

That's just one thing in Forex that I'm scared to death to mess with...going long on the Dollar.
If I was a longer term trader, I'd probably relish this as an opportunity to buy it at a major discount. I'm still far too new to this to have much confidence in my "analysis", but I think today's sell off was too emotional based on Fannie and Freddie. My assumptions are that there couldn't be much more negative sentiment left in that regard that hasn't been appropriately priced in.

Plenty of data out next week, but probably not of the earth shattering type. I would love to be in at a major bank right now to see if they're licking their chops to buy the buck.
  • #1,039
  • Jul 11, 2008 9:51am Jul 11, 2008 9:51am
Quoting finswin56
I desperately wanted to go in a little higher than that at at 105.92 (the last support when UJ went up last week), but lacked the sack to buck today's trend. S&P is still down, but only half of what it was.

Good luck!
i'm in at 105.80
  • #1,040
  • Jul 11, 2008 10:01am Jul 11, 2008 10:01am
Will buy cable at 9838...intraday scalp.
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