Chinese yuan (USD/CNY)

Oanda offers trading in the USD/CNY pair, although the spread is a static 40 pips, and the interest rate is at -4.5%

I dunno. Ya' think maybe go short?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_USDCNY&v=d12

Hi There Group,

Member for over a year and thought it was about time I made a post.

Anhyhow, I looked at the Tradeland FX website and they seem to offer some interesting exotics, although they don't offer any information as to who is running the company, and I can't find them on the www.cftc.gov website. Tried looking them up on the broker discussion forum and can't find anything about them there either.

I currently have an account with Oanda and I think I'll keep my money with them for now.

Anybody have any experience with Tradeland?

Vic

Hello,
I was looking at the USD/CNY pair recently and noticed it has been on the fall for quite sometime.Does anyone know anything about the interest rollover on this and how that would be if you were to short this pair?Thanks in advance for your help.

I bought the Chinese Yuan against the dollar; you should, too.

http://bp3.blogger.com/_dvsIjUgMOUw/...eenshot_90.png

Here's why:

1. As everyone SHOULD know, China is and will be growing tremendously.
   
   Imagine all countries are eating one big pie. As countries like China and India grow, they are not only taking more of the pie, but they are expanding the total size of the pie. What affect does this have on the traditionally #1 superpower USA? Well, it means relative to the world, the USA will be weaker because the pie is getting bigger, while our piece doesn't look prime for growth at the moment.
2. The relationship between Wal-Mart, China, and bad times in the USA.
   
   "The world’s biggest retailer, U.S.-based Wal-Mart was responsible for $27 billion in U.S. imports from China in 2006 and 11% of the growth of the total U.S. trade deficit with China between 2001 and 2006. Wal-Mart’s trade deficit with China alone eliminated nearly 200,000 U.S. jobs in this period."
   Source: http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/ib235
   
   "China's exports grew 27.2 percent in 2006 while imports expanded by 20 percent, resulting in a surplus of $177.5 billion, compared to $100 billion the previous year."
   Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-01/26/content_793128.htm
   
   So, let's examine these facts. Before we start, why isn't Wal-Mart a country?! It acts like one! Anyway, Wal-Mart sends a lot of money over to good, old China for the cheap crud they sell at their stores. China loves this money; what country doesn't like surpluses? Well, they take that surplus and buy U.S. Dollars to finance USA debt. USA should want our dollars to stay within our borders most of the time, but it doesn't happen this way; so as we keep producing more and more dollars into the system while China's collection increases due to interest and more surpluses, we are making the dollar weaker. What do Americans do when the dollar is weaker? Go to Wal-Mart (Better bang for your buck)! AKA, back to China. Oh brother... I think we may have a problem. A self-perpetuating problem at that.
   
   Some may argue that China will want to keep a weak Chinese Yuan because they export so much, but they are a country whose standards of living are and will be increasing. I'm not so sure a strong Chinese Yuan would be so bad in their eyes.

http://bp1.blogger.com/_dvsIjUgMOUw/...eenshot_89.png

So, in summary, China is growing, and the USA is getting weaker as everyone else grows. There's a unique relationship between our private businesses, China, and USA that seems to favor the Chinese. Does the Yuan look good yet?

Look at this graph

Yes but how much are you paying in negative carry?

I'm down 2% in negative carry, but up 8% in pips (since June 18). But this is a good point that people should know.

Hi guys,

with all that has been going on, we all know with great probability that yuan will appreciate vs dollar...but I keep wondering why Oanda is the only broker that offers option to trade dollar to yuan...also its spread is huge, and interest rate is unreasonable. Are there anywhere else u can trade dollar to yuan except for the bank...like OTC? thanks

I think CME offers a few futures contracts?

Also you could go to China and open an account and buy physical currency.

BTW a couple of Chinese banks offer retail FX trading, account is in CNY so you're basically trading CNY against other currencies.

the key reason is that YUAN(元) is not freely traded or exchanged,it is dirty floating or controlled floating nowdays.

Right, if it is freefloating it's going to be a major just because of its size.

are you still holding any short USD CNY ?
what kind of time frame are you looking at for your trade ?
from fundamentals it sounds really strong
I was thinking of the same thing , but my broker does not have the pair
good luck!

Alex

some people believe that yuan is underrated against dollar. The Chinese government is been accused to "keep" Yuan low in order to boost the chinese products abroad.
However, i believe in the end of the day, exchange rate parity will find its balance and when it happens, the Yuan value will rise extremely against dollar...i just dont know when it will happen...

The yuan is extremely undervalued at estimates of 30 - 40 %. As exports demand contract due to the faltering US economy, China has to realize that it will soon lose its competitive advantage with the low yuan.

China remains one of the largest domestic consumption markets in the world. Even with the onslaught of the financial tsunami, its retail sector has survived relatively unscathed in 2008. Even in bad times, the increasing affluent chinese needs to spend money on their necessities. It will not be long before the Chinese government realize the next move is to tap on its own domestic consumption.

Further, China is also one of the few nations to survive last financial year with a positive current account and gdp growth.

Lastly, the Fed is actually a private bank and not owned by the US government since 1913, the government has NO CONTROL over the printing of dollars. While it is definitely exciting to hear Obama's administration coming up with trillion dollars stimulus package, has anyone really wonder where is that huge money coming from? The treasury is already experiencing immense difficulty raising the money by selling the tbills to.... as you guess.. CHINA, since Geithner has cleverly addressed the US biggest creditor as a currency manipulator. Sure, the treasury can request for the Fed to print more money, and the Fed will gladly do so as they continue to grow. Assets of the Fed has doubled to 2 billion over the last year as they continue their conquest to become the largest creditor of US. Rather than seeing the banks getting nationalized, what I am seeing is a recipe for disaster as a private bank exerts its control over the monetary system of the largest economy in the world.

The end result? Expect China to take centre stage, although it probably already has. Long the Yuan.

It will happen when China sold all of their American T-bills or stop caring about their worth. Whichever comes first.

Anyone know of MT4 for this pair USD/CNY(chinese yuan) ?

Why cant i sell usd/rmb and collect interest? I have tried this through gci and it cost me interest to put on the carry.

by my estimate, no chance on MT4

anyone trading this in Oanda?