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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #261
  • Feb 7, 2007 8:59am Feb 7, 2007 8:59am
Yesterday I've closed the trade with +52 pips profit but now I'm thinking it's an uptrend continuation pattern forms in H4 MACD. The time to go long again?
Ben
  • #262
  • Edited 9:15am Feb 7, 2007 9:09am | Edited 9:15am
25 pips between ma's, still above first ma to hit (not bad, but close to no trade by my rules now), and the current candle has an upward tail. The MACD looks like maybe a round (looks a little bit rough on my chart?), and it seems to be hitting a lot of resistance right now. No big news coming out to affect it. I would look to go short, but definitely wait for the candle to close for confirmation (only 1 hour to go), and maybe check the 45 minute chart for confirmation too.

Those are my thoughts...anyone else.

Update - don't forget about retracement.....


Quoting mandoaddam
I think it's gona be good Short trade from here on cable
1st target for me 1.9610
waiting for some ons till me am I rong or what?


any comments from you will help
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #263
  • Feb 7, 2007 9:14am Feb 7, 2007 9:14am
Quoting mandoaddam
I think it's gona be good Short trade from here on cable
1st target for me 1.9610
waiting for some ons till me am I rong or what?


any comments from you will help
Yep i think a short is on ,i think though this 4hr bar has to lock in ,then its a
true signal , maybe Phillip can confrim this .

Sunseeker
  • #264
  • Feb 7, 2007 9:31am Feb 7, 2007 9:31am
What a nice system. Suits my trading style perfectly. Would the be possible short on G/U ?.Round top at strong resistance. Can anybody comment please? Hope the picture uploaded lol
Attached Image
  • #265
  • Feb 7, 2007 9:37am Feb 7, 2007 9:37am
Quoting DireXiv
25 pips between ma's, still above first ma to hit (not bad, but close to no trade by my rules now), and the current candle has an upward tail. The MACD looks like maybe a round (looks a little bit rough on my chart?), and it seems to be hitting a lot of resistance right now. No big news coming out to affect it. I would look to go short, but definitely wait for the candle to close for confirmation (only 1 hour to go), and maybe check the 45 minute chart for confirmation too.

Those are my thoughts...anyone else.

Update - don't forget about retracement.....
I agree about going short. My only concern is that we're sitting on the 89 SMA which has been acting as support also. I would want to see a close below this on a smaller timeframe to confirm short. A close below the 60 trendline would do this for me. I have a price projection around 1.9630 based on my 60 trendlines. the 200 sma is about 1.9610
  • #266
  • Feb 7, 2007 9:53am Feb 7, 2007 9:53am
I am short with cable from 1.9696 - 1hr pin looks good to me. Target @ 1.9615. Stop @ 1.9725.
  • #267
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:30am Feb 7, 2007 10:30am
Just started looking at this method. Just wondering right now. How do you apply the moving averages: apply to close, open, high, low, median price, etc. Thank you.
  • #268
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:31am Feb 7, 2007 10:31am
I noticed that often times a small round top (like about halfway below 15 level) results in continuation rather than reversal. Would you comment on that, please, Phillip.
Attached Image
  • #269
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:32am Feb 7, 2007 10:32am
Quoting Benf
Yesterday I've closed the trade with +52 pips profit but now I'm thinking it's an uptrend continuation pattern forms in H4 MACD. The time to go long again?
I am a bit late today. Had to do something. Good evaluation. Did not make a nice valley but the continuation pattern could be taken on. I like the valley to be a bit deeper but it worked out well. Target 200SMA.
  • #270
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:34am Feb 7, 2007 10:34am
Quoting DireXiv
25 pips between ma's, still above first ma to hit (not bad, but close to no trade by my rules now), and the current candle has an upward tail. The MACD looks like maybe a round (looks a little bit rough on my chart?), and it seems to be hitting a lot of resistance right now. No big news coming out to affect it. I would look to go short, but definitely wait for the candle to close for confirmation (only 1 hour to go), and maybe check the 45 minute chart for confirmation too.

Those are my thoughts...anyone else.

Update - don't forget about retracement.....
Just watch the 89SMA
  • #271
  • Edited 10:52am Feb 7, 2007 10:36am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting Ebenst
What a nice system. Suits my trading style perfectly. Would the be possible short on G/U ?.Round top at strong resistance. Can anybody comment please? Hope the picture uploaded lol

You can if you can enter to squeeze some pips to the 89SMA and your risk reward is OK
  • #272
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:39am Feb 7, 2007 10:39am
Quoting pipette4x
I agree about going short. My only concern is that we're sitting on the 89 SMA which has been acting as support also. I would want to see a close below this on a smaller timeframe to confirm short. A close below the 60 trendline would do this for me. I have a price projection around 1.9630 based on my 60 trendlines. the 200 sma is about 1.9610
Very well done. You have just plan your trade and that is what it is all about. If it goes wrong you will know exactly where to get out and if it goes well you know where to take your profits.
  • #273
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:40am Feb 7, 2007 10:40am
Quoting broc0501
Just started looking at this method. Just wondering right now. How do you apply the moving averages: apply to close, open, high, low, median price, etc. Thank you.
To the close
  • #274
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:44am Feb 7, 2007 10:44am
Quoting irusoh
I noticed that often times a small round top (like about halfway below 15 level) results in continuation rather than reversal. Would you comment on that, please, Phillip.

You are absolutely right. That is why I said this morning that with support of 89SMA on the Gbp and also on the Eur we must wait for a possible trend continuation. The down move must be confirmed even if it takes another candle. The move is up between two trendlines therefore a continuation pattern was on the cards.

This the actual posting this morning for the Gbp. The same apply to any pair.
The setup starts to look promising. We are however just above the 89SMA which can turn out to be support. I will rahter wait for the continuation pattern for a long to occur or another down candle will confirm the downmove. There are plenty of chances. Be patience.
  • #275
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:50am Feb 7, 2007 10:50am
Quoting fxnewbie 71
Hi phil,thanks for sharing your system! can i also check with u whats the worst drawdown with this system(in pips) and do u have a filter for the drawdown? thanks!
Over three months only two wrong trades in a row 90 pips max. 45 Pips per trade. Only take the good signals is my filter. Never take a trade if the 89SMA or 200SMA are nearby and my risk reward is less than 1:0.9. If the risk is more than the pips towards those MA's I skip. That is part of my filter.
  • #276
  • Feb 7, 2007 10:58am Feb 7, 2007 10:58am
Here are the last part of this 4Hour Strategy. Might get some reaction but that is how I see it. Hope it will be received positive. If you can manage the two parts together you will win.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Tsunami.pdf   77 KB | 4,516 downloads
  • #277
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:19pm Feb 7, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting DireXiv
GBP/USD showing the making of a head and shoulders? Thoughts on direction and how far?
18:12GMT.
I rather seeing a round top than head & shoulder for GBP/USD. Can plan for a short with a sell stop order below 89 MA and the 200 MA could be the target.
Please comment, all of you, including Phillip.
Thanks.
-Chandra.
PS: If we type in/enter the time of our posting (in GMT), then it helps others to go and see the chart. Just an opinion,
  • #278
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:23pm Feb 7, 2007 12:23pm
10:22 GMT
Hi Phillip,
Is there any trade when MACD crosses zero line as it is done in EUR/USD a couple of bars back? Just plain crossing, nothing else. It is very tempting to take a position when this happens.
-Chandra
  • #279
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:33pm Feb 7, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting Chandra
10:22 GMT
Hi Phillip,
Is there any trade when MACD crosses zero line as it is done in EUR/USD a couple of bars back? Just plain crossing, nothing else. It is very tempting to take a position when this happens.
-Chandra
Yes you can if R:R is OK. Normally you would be in a trade when that happens. If not just enter at the 8EMA more or less.

Your previuos post I think he ment the priceaction
Attached Image
  • #280
  • Feb 7, 2007 12:39pm Feb 7, 2007 12:39pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
You are absolutely right. That is why I said this morning that with support of 89SMA on the Gbp and also on the Eur we must wait for a possible trend continuation. The down move must be confirmed even if it takes another candle. The move is up between two trendlines therefore a continuation pattern was on the cards.

This the actual posting this morning for the Gbp. The same apply to any pair.
The setup starts to look promising. We are however just above the 89SMA which can turn out to be support. I will rahter wait for the continuation pattern for a long to occur or another down candle will confirm the downmove. There are plenty of chances. Be patience.
That's why it's important to trade what you see, not what you think
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