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  • #961
  • Jul 10, 2008 5:03am Jul 10, 2008 5:03am
Veery nice setup on gbp/usd. S/R area + fib50 confluence. Entered @ 1.9718 wit 2pip drawdown. S/L at breakeven now and i've got pretty nice pinbar on h1. Already 20+ pips. Lets see what happens on official bank rate statement.
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  • #962
  • Jul 10, 2008 5:17am Jul 10, 2008 5:17am
Quoting Greenhaze
Veery nice setup on gbp/usd. S/R area + fib50 confluence. Entered @ 1.9718 wit 2pip drawdown. S/L at breakeven now and i've got pretty nice pinbar on h1. Already 20+ pips. Lets see what happens on official bank rate statement.
I was trying to get in at 1.9710

A bit annoyed right now...
  • #963
  • Jul 10, 2008 5:18am Jul 10, 2008 5:18am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Posts 779, 780 and on p. 53 are what I could help you with for the best answer.
Interesting..i have the same problem drawing correct support and resistance lines and the best time frame to use. I have to go back to your first post and start reading before i ask any question.

Good trading to everyone.
  • #964
  • Jul 10, 2008 5:29am Jul 10, 2008 5:29am
Quoting finswin56
I was trying to get in at 1.9710

A bit annoyed right now...
On H1 the last bounce from s/r area was at 1.9715 so it was good place to enter with not so tight stop loss. Already added another position at the break of the pinbar.
  • #965
  • Jul 10, 2008 5:38am Jul 10, 2008 5:38am
Quoting Greenhaze
Veery nice setup on gbp/usd. S/R area + fib50 confluence. Entered @ 1.9718 wit 2pip drawdown. S/L at breakeven now and i've got pretty nice pinbar on h1. Already 20+ pips. Lets see what happens on official bank rate statement.
Nica call, you might well have gotten yourself an early ticket on the gravy train.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #966
  • Jul 10, 2008 5:40am Jul 10, 2008 5:40am
I went long on AUD last night after the unemployment report. When the report was released price broke through a recent resistance level, and retraced back down, so that's where I went long expecting support. So far it did increase about 15-20 pips, but is currently sitting on the level.

When managing a trade like this, would I be correct in thinking the level is strengthening as a near term support, or is in fact weakening?
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  • #967
  • Jul 10, 2008 6:13am Jul 10, 2008 6:13am
Quoting finswin56
I went long on AUD last night after the unemployment report. When the report was released price broke through a recent resistance level, and retraced back down, so that's where I went long expecting support. So far it did increase about 15-20 pips, but is currently sitting on the level.

When managing a trade like this, would I be correct in thinking the level is strengthening as a near term support, or is in fact weakening?
Its a harder call when it comes to news releases, but also keep in mind you have a downward sloping diagonal trendline on top of this formation. Not too sure what you mean by your question, can you restate it perhaps?
  • #968
  • Jul 10, 2008 6:22am Jul 10, 2008 6:22am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Its a harder call when it comes to news releases, but also keep in mind you have a downward sloping diagonal trendline on top of this formation. Not too sure what you mean by your question, can you restate it perhaps?
Just trying to get a feel in the general sense for intraday support levels that price sits on for a while. When that happens do you feel the level becomes more solid as support, or is more of a liable to fail?

I hate trend lines. Can't stand them because, like you said, they are very ambiguous, and if you draw them on 1H, 4H, and 1D, you get a mess. For the AUD, the 1D there's a strong up trend. 4H, and 1H seem to be declining, or are they consolidating?

When I started researching fx, I saw all the experts leaning on trend lines as their main keys. I almost didn't bother with this at all, but figured there had to be a more intuitive way of doing this. I don't think I can thank you enough for showing us the light.
  • #969
  • Jul 10, 2008 6:41am Jul 10, 2008 6:41am
As BRV say s/r levels are most important in technical analisys but trendlines give you good direction hint. When i see good defined trendline on swings low/high i like to project them on the other end of swing to get better place to exit from a trade. They are not reliable as s/r zones but lot of times price like to bounce in the diagonal channel and not taking them for consideration is ignorance
  • #970
  • Jul 10, 2008 6:55am Jul 10, 2008 6:55am
Quoting Greenhaze
As BRV say s/r levels are most important in technical analisys but trendlines give you good direction hint. When i see good defined trendline on swings low/high i like to project them on the other end of swing to get better place to exit from a trade. They are not reliable as s/r zones but lot of times price like to bounce in the diagonal channel and not taking them for consideration is ignorance
Understood, and I certainly put more faith in their direction over a lagging indicator. I just don't like being scared away from a trade because of them, especially on lower levels.

BTW, should be a very interesting morning with Bernanke and Paulson's testimony. Seems like they're going to get a good grilling over Bears Stearn.
  • #971
  • Jul 10, 2008 6:56am Jul 10, 2008 6:56am
Hi everybody,

What about long eur/chf at 1,6160. Do you think it's less significant now it has been hit yesterday or does it make the level more reliable?
  • #972
  • Jul 10, 2008 6:58am Jul 10, 2008 6:58am
Quoting finswin56
Just trying to get a feel in the general sense for intraday support levels that price sits on for a while. When that happens do you feel the level becomes more solid as support, or is more of a liable to fail?

I hate trend lines. Can't stand them because, like you said, they are very ambiguous, and if you draw them on 1H, 4H, and 1D, you get a mess. For the AUD, the 1D there's a strong up trend. 4H, and 1H seem to be declining, or are they consolidating?

When I started researching fx, I saw all the experts leaning on trend lines as their main keys. I almost didn't bother with this at all, but figured there had to be a more intuitive way of doing this. I don't think I can thank you enough for showing us the light.
I mean in a case like this yes you have a good typical intraday trade. So you're getting it (you also got some profit too I noticed).

Just keep on watching these levels and I guarantee they'll be second nature to you. Your win rate is going to be awesome if you just keep on going and gain the experience. You just need to get comfortable using these levels. Many opportunities to trade them each and every day.
  • #973
  • Jul 10, 2008 7:06am Jul 10, 2008 7:06am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I mean in a case like this yes you have a good typical intraday trade. So you're getting it (you also got some profit too I noticed).

Just keep on watching these levels and I guarantee they'll be second nature to you. Your win rate is going to be awesome if you just keep on going and gain the experience. You just need to get comfortable using these levels. Many opportunities to trade them each and every day.
Thanks. Yeah, I'm protected now. Figured it was worth getting in at that level to see if yesterday's weak dollar continued. But, it starting to feel like another day to continue the seesaw.
  • #974
  • Jul 10, 2008 7:08am Jul 10, 2008 7:08am
Hello Billy, may i ask do you consider pivot points a good form of support and resistance, or drawing the lines on actual levels more useful and accurate.
  • #975
  • Edited 7:29am Jul 10, 2008 7:12am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting TradeCell
Hello Billy, may i ask do you consider pivot points a good form of support and resistance, or drawing the lines on actual levels more useful and accurate.
Hi there, very good question. Here are my thoughts in regards to pivots:

- they have to be set to a particular timeframe, but different areas of the world have different closes; therefore, charts look different and pivots are calculated using different price points, creating a lack of consistency

- ambiguity over which levels will block price from following through (S1, S2, which will it be?)

- price usually only turns at pivot points when the pivot point also coincides with a local support/resistance level

- pivot points usually work the best in local markets where everyone is looking at a chart of the same close

so overall, not a huge fan you could say . Theyre not needed, anyway. You can find more knockout opportunities without them. And, your entry levels will be better.
  • #976
  • Jul 10, 2008 7:23am Jul 10, 2008 7:23am
I see your point, and i share your observation about pivot points coinciding with support and resistance lines. Thanks for the great reply and for taking the time to show newbies like me about your trading style.
  • #977
  • Jul 10, 2008 7:25am Jul 10, 2008 7:25am
More questions... :o

I haven't been following the markets on a daily basis for very long. My question is in regards to the current day's sentiment, and when we go through days/weeks that can't seem to make up their mind. This week started off trying to rally against last week's losses, but fell "officially" into a bear market yesterday. Today, S&P futures are pointing up.

Is there a point that you can get a feel for how the day is going? Or do you just worry about the levels unless facing major news or an overwhelming sentiment day?
  • #978
  • Jul 10, 2008 7:43am Jul 10, 2008 7:43am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi there, very good question. Here are my thoughts in regards to pivots:

- they have to be set to a particular timeframe, but different areas of the world have different closes; therefore, charts look different and pivots are calculated using different price points, creating a lack of consistency

- ambiguity over which levels will block price from following through (S1, S2, which will it be?)

- price usually only turns at pivot points when the pivot point also coincides with a local support/resistance level

- pivot points usually work the best in local markets where everyone is looking at a chart of the same close

so overall, not a huge fan you could say . Theyre not needed, anyway. You can find more knockout opportunities without them. And, your entry levels will be better.

Hi, only indicators that I have on my charts (if that can even be called indicator) are daily, weekly and monthly pivot points. I simply use them often as additional feature. On attached screen you can notice how price action takes them seriously very often. I suppose it has more to do with the trading style of individual trader. If you ask me, I will stay strict with Billly's method but some pivots here and there can not do harm IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #979
  • Jul 10, 2008 7:51am Jul 10, 2008 7:51am
Quoting manistra
Hi, only indicators that I have on my charts (if that can even be called indicator) are daily, weekly and monthly pivot points. I simply use them often as additional feature. On attached screen you can notice how price action takes them seriously very often. I suppose it has more to do with the trading style of individual trader. If you ask me, I will stay strict with Billly's method but some pivots here and there can not do harm IMO
Oh totally dont get me wrong, like anything they have a degree of usefulness; I just prefer monitoring these levels as they have proven to me to be generally the most reliable, but thats me. I just personally dont use any indicators. Everybody is going to have their own methods.
  • #980
  • Jul 10, 2008 8:03am Jul 10, 2008 8:03am
Hi BANDA & others interested in EURCHF short trade... I hope you too were patient enough for this trade.. Now lets collect some profits . Yesterday price came very close but did not triggered my sell stop at 1.6236.
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