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  • #941
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:51am Jul 9, 2008 7:51am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm actually still holding onto a piece of this from the trade posted. I'm targeting .9580 (which also looks like the next obvious place to sell).
Thanks, that does make more sense.
  • #942
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:55am Jul 9, 2008 7:55am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi BRV,

So, since we are in a down trend on te NZD daily chart you would be looking for price to push below the most recent low to the next lower level. Is that what you are looking for?

The other question I have is since the NZD is in a downtrend why are you not looking for resistance above the current price level so you can take the rejection of that area and go short with the trend? That seems like it would be a more likely trade rather than the counter trend trade from the 7400 level.
For the first question, I just basically sit tight and wait to see what develops. If it gets down there it gets down there. If not, then onto other trades.

For the second question, yes, I very well could be looking for opportunities to sell short in line with the current trend. No question about it. I just posted the no brainer level though, thats all. I think thats where we'll see the most bang for the buck, provided market conditions allow.
  • #943
  • Jul 9, 2008 8:03am Jul 9, 2008 8:03am
Hi Billy
Ty for the input,appreciate your take on that regard. Sorry keep bothering you. Actually I started to look for Support and Resistance levels with high priority , I also come to understand most indicators are not the pancea or holy grail . When loose often I tried to look for different indicators to find they also provide the same results , now try to learn to keep things simple and to reduce over analysis. Just my opinion -most important is Fib's and support and resistance and some time get the help of hiken-ashi.


Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi manistra (and in response to BANDA as well),

Yes, it does look like a good area in general and a reaction could very well be seen from it. I generally go smaller position size on cross pairs like this though, due to the general volatility. I find the majors are much easier to guage in terms of exact reversal points. I assume a little lower probability on these crosses, but thats just me. This is only because the majors are the ones really running the show.
BANDA333
  • #944
  • Jul 9, 2008 8:15am Jul 9, 2008 8:15am
USDCHF has shown support around the 1.0345 area in June and recently showing resistance. What about a short here?

Visual One
  • #945
  • Jul 9, 2008 8:33am Jul 9, 2008 8:33am
Quoting Visual One
USDCHF has shown support around the 1.0345 area in June and recently showing resistance. What about a short here?

Visual One
Hi Visual One, I personally dont enter trades this late....you have no room to maneuver in case it goes against you. That's why I scrapped using indicators a long time ago.....I was losing too much money. This being the major reason.
  • #946
  • Jul 9, 2008 9:04am Jul 9, 2008 9:04am
I commonly refer to price in trending environments as stacking bricks, because you will notice over and over again that price forms “blocks” and stacks diagonally, one on top of the other. Below we have a chart of USD/CAD. You’ll see that on 3 different occasions during this uptrend, a level of resistance turned into a level of support, a bullish sign indicating further price movement upwards.


http://www.tradetenor.com/cad2.gif

In regards to intraday trading, using this technique and using these levels will provide high probability setups over and over again on heavily trending days. When an area finally becomes broken, it is typically a sign that the uptrend is over and either reversal or consolidation is on the way.

Additionally, you will notice from the chart that the diagonal trendline was forfeited for the horizontal support and resistance. Playing a bounce off of a diagonal trendline would not have given you nearly as good of an entry as the horizontal lines, or you would have missed entry altogether, depending on how you were to draw the line. It is why we always require horizontal support and resistance be present before entering any trades.
  • #947
  • Jul 9, 2008 11:33am Jul 9, 2008 11:33am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I commonly refer to price in trending environments as stacking bricks, because you will notice over and over again that price forms “blocks” and stacks diagonally, one on top of the other. Below we have a chart of USD/CAD. You’ll see that on 3 different occasions during this uptrend, a level of resistance turned into a level of support, a bullish sign indicating further price movement upwards.


http://www.tradetenor.com/cad2.gif

In regards to intraday trading, using this technique and using these levels will provide high probability setups over and over again on heavily trending days. When an area finally becomes broken, it is typically a sign that the uptrend is over and either reversal or consolidation is on the way.

Additionally, you will notice from the chart that the diagonal trendline was forfeited for the horizontal support and resistance. Playing a bounce off of a diagonal trendline would not have given you nearly as good of an entry as the horizontal lines, or you would have missed entry altogether, depending on how you were to draw the line. It is why we always require horizontal support and resistance be present before entering any trades.
That makes a lot of sense, seems like it could keep you out of much trouble even in a range bound day. What I like most is that it makes much more sense from a risk perspective than 1-2-3 system that looks for similar patterns, but buys at high points and exposes you to too much draw down.

Thanks!
  • #948
  • Jul 9, 2008 11:56am Jul 9, 2008 11:56am
Okay, here's another bad trade idea.

If it should fall through the 107.10 level, would you think that the USD/JPY would be a decent long around 106.80?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #949
  • Jul 9, 2008 12:32pm Jul 9, 2008 12:32pm
wat do you think of gbp/jpy,i am considering going long
  • #950
  • Jul 9, 2008 3:40pm Jul 9, 2008 3:40pm
Hi BRV and all,

First post on these forums. Relatively new to trading. Still getting a handle on a few things but I'd like to think I'm up with the basics. Really enjoying the thread, so thanks to all for their input.

Just wondering if you could cast your eye over this one. Looking at the AUD/EUR and it seems to be coming down to a level of decent support (6052 - 6045).

Would this be worth a long? I'm suggesting an initial target of 6096. I see resistance beyond that but recently the price has retraced at around the 6096 point. Is this too "short-sighted" to be considered tradable?

Any comments on this?

Any feedback appreciated.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX AUD_EUR (09-JUL-08).png Size: 13 KB


P.S. Not put an order on this or anything, just wanting to see if I'm grasping the principles of this system.

Thanks,

Greg
  • #951
  • Jul 9, 2008 6:24pm Jul 9, 2008 6:24pm
I've got another set of questions for you guys, I'm almost done reading

how is the 90% success rate calculated?

what is the average time period each trade is held for?

how many trades usually come up each week?

thanks again!
  • #952
  • Jul 9, 2008 10:22pm Jul 9, 2008 10:22pm
Quoting rogerdoger
I've got another set of questions for you guys, I'm almost done reading

how is the 90% success rate calculated?

what is the average time period each trade is held for?

how many trades usually come up each week?

thanks again!
how is the 90% success rate calculated? - No calculations just saying high probability, but so far above the mark.

I would encourage you to focus more on the method though. Like the old saying you could have 2 traders taking the same trades and one could have a 90% success rate and the other could be failing miserably. This is the type of thing that you need to see happen day in and day out and soon you'll understand that tons of these setups present themselves each and every day. The more you watch them the more you learn how to trade them. Its a matter of time. Here we're just posting the most obvious levels, thats all. The bigger they are the more likely the reaction.

what is the average time period each trade is held for? - this is the fx market, so it varies all the time based on changing market conditions. Intraday trades using these levels can last only a matter of minutes, others can be held for weeks. Its case by case.

how many trades usually come up each week? - I take about 3 to 5 trades per day now, the no brainer type of levels can hit all in a row (several per day), or stretch themselves out over time. It varies.

For the first and second question there really is no consistency. You just need to watch the market like other experienced members in the thread and after a while its like reading sheet music, you'll be knocking them out left and right.

thanks again! - np
  • #953
  • Jul 9, 2008 10:30pm Jul 9, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting Rustyyy
USD/JPY trade is a good risk/reward.
Strong support on 4HR T/L and 4HR 200 SMA (Blue line)
In for the ride.
OK Rusty I see we need to get you into the 12 step program at Indicators Anonymous. But glad to have you regardless.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #954
  • Edited 2:21am Jul 10, 2008 1:31am | Edited 2:21am
A conversation I had with someone earlier tonight sparked some ideas in my head, and I thought I would write them down here for some of you to take a look at.

There are things I’ve picked up over the years, as well as learned from other people, through looking at portfolio managers of all shapes and sizes, from beginning retail traders to multi-million dollar equity and fixed income strategists. There are a lot of good books on the topic as well. FYI I also posted this as a news story just because I found a good amount of value behind it. Some might sound cliche or rehashed information, but here you go:


They are experienced – Probably the most horrifying and worst myth shot out to anyone considering trading for a living is that you will compound millions in an extremely short amount of time when starting off. The only true way to make every day profitable comes through experience, and countless hours learning is crucial to longevity of success.

They know the damage they are capable of – Notice I didn’t say potential or profits here. The best traders I know of understand their limits, and seem to focus more on what can go wrong than what can go right. They are not easily convinced of lucrative outcomes, and have a very high sense of self-awareness.

They trade to make money, not to be right – They understand the strengths and possible pitfalls of what it is they do for a living, and use that knowledge to curb their emotional output.

They have an edge and know how to use it – They understand that without it they wouldn’t last long

They have a gameplan, and follow it explicitly – Each trade is planned and opportunities are scouted for before any trading takes place. They steer away from the killers of all killers: overtrading.

They manage risk – Regardless of how much conviction they have on a trade, they will still do what they can to avoid the potential of any losses and understand rule #1 about trading: anything can happen.

They work obsessively – They follow each turn, each piece of info that comes out in regards to their trade, and follow any underlying information relevant to failure or success.

They access the best information – Information rules in trading, and having some of the best translates to money. Using the WRONG information leads to failure.

They think about the trade, not the money behind it - Focusing on money can destroy your means to objectively assess the trade itself.

They are constantly learning - Just when you think you know it all about trading, a new curveball gets thrown your way, not to mention there are continued means and methods to be learned about making money. Even the most highly successful trader I ever knew, a multi-billion dollar portfolio manager, has a team of fundamentalists and technicians come in to train and retrain himself and his traders.

They are active – Activity sparks creativity, a very crucial part of trading.

They have patience – They understand that the money will come, but everything needs to be in place, first.
  • #955
  • Jul 10, 2008 2:13am Jul 10, 2008 2:13am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
A conversation I had with someone earlier tonight sparked some ideas in my head, and I thought I would write them down here for some of you to take a look at.

There are things I’ve picked up over the years, as well as learned from other people, through looking at portfolio managers of all shapes and sizes, from beginning retail traders to multi-million dollar equity and fixed income strategists. There are a lot of good books on the topic as well. Some might sound cliche or rehashed information, but here you go:


They are experienced – Probably the most horrifying and worst myth shot out to anyone considering trading for a living is that you will compound millions in an extremely short amount of time when starting off. The only true way to make every day profitable comes through experience, and countless hours learning is crucial to longevity of success.

They know the damage they are capable of – Notice I didn’t say potential or profits here. The best traders I know of understand their limits, and seem to focus more on what can go wrong than what can go right. They are not easily convinced of lucrative outcomes, and have a very high sense of self-awareness.

They trade to make money, not to be right – They understand the strengths and possible pitfalls of what it is they do for a living, and use that knowledge to curb their emotional output.

They have an edge and know how to use it – They understand that without it they wouldn’t last long

They have a gameplan, and follow it explicitly – Each trade is planned and opportunities are scouted for before any trading takes place. They steer away from the killers of all killers: overtrading.

They manage risk – Regardless of how much conviction they have on a trade, they will still do what they can to avoid the potential of any losses and understand rule #1 about trading: anything can happen.

They work obsessively – They follow each turn, each piece of info that comes out in regards to their trade, and follow any underlying information relevant to failure or success.

They access the best information – Information rules in trading, and having some of the best translates to money. Using the WRONG information leads to failure.

They think about the trade, not the money behind it - Focusing on money can destroy your means to objectively assess the trade itself.

They are constantly learning - Just when you think you know it all about trading, a new curveball gets thrown your way, not to mention there are continued means and methods to be learned about making money. Even the most highly successful trader I ever knew, a multi-billion dollar portfolio manager, has a team of fundamentalists and technicians come in to train and retrain himself and his traders.

They are active – Activity sparks creativity, a very crucial part of trading.

They have patience – They understand that the money will come, but everything needs to be in place, first.
Well said. YES it is extremely important to wein out the emotions and adhere to rules. I believe it was Jacko in another thread that once said, the biggest problem facing traders is Undercapitalization.

Do not fall victim to the myth that you can start out with a 1K account and trade it one way and when you get to 100K you will trade a different way. Rules are rules. It's not the money but the consistency that matters. 10 pips a day is 10 pips a day whether it's a 1K or 100K account. The only thing that says different is our own emotions.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #956
  • Jul 10, 2008 2:32am Jul 10, 2008 2:32am
These are very valuable trading facts. One of those texts when you read it, you know it is true, but sometimes it takes huge amount of effort to truly accept it and start to use it in your daily life. If anyone sticks to it I believe success in trading will be far more achievable.

BRV, can you tell us a bit about your expirience how and when you accepted S&R as
major factor in trading ?
I can say for myself than during many years i found out than S&R is simply ONLY thing that does not stopped working over years, in ALL market conditions. Market can be ranging, it will react on S&R. Market can be trending, it will react on major S&R. Market can be quiet, it will show reacton on S&R. Market can be very volatile, but it will react on major &R. Of course question remains how exactly it will react, when it will bounce an when it will breakout but thats one of the reasons why this trading method is not and never will me mechanical EA type trading method. * which i believe every serious trader must avoid.
  • #957
  • Jul 10, 2008 3:15am Jul 10, 2008 3:15am
Quoting manistra
These are very valuable trading facts. One of those texts when you read it, you know it is true, but sometimes it takes huge amount of effort to truly accept it and start to use it in your daily life. If anyone sticks to it I believe success in trading will be far more achievable.

BRV, can you tell us a bit about your expirience how and when you accepted S&R as
major factor in trading ?
I can say for myself than during many years i found out than S&R is simply ONLY thing that does not stopped working over years, in ALL market conditions. Market can be ranging, it will react on S&R. Market can be trending, it will react on major S&R. Market can be quiet, it will show reacton on S&R. Market can be very volatile, but it will react on major &R. Of course question remains how exactly it will react, when it will bounce an when it will breakout but thats one of the reasons why this trading method is not and never will me mechanical EA type trading method. * which i believe every serious trader must avoid.
Quite honestly when I started seeing how general bank order flow worked, and through the experience of others I worked with at my last hedge fund. Once I started using these I never went back to anything else because I never had the success like I did using these levels. I've been down the same road as a lot of other people, reading millions of books about trading systems, etc, only to find most of them fail on me (ironically enough most of them fail because most dont take these levels into account). I've used some of the most complicated methods you could probably imagine, and it figures at the end of the day I end up drawing horizontal lines for a living . But like Ive said knowing when to get in has only been part of the game; trade management and things like on the list above have been the largest hurdles (but it makes it a lot easier when you can nail the entries on the head).
  • #958
  • Jul 10, 2008 3:17am Jul 10, 2008 3:17am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Quite honestly when I started seeing how general bank order flow worked, and through the experience of others I worked with at my last hedge fund. Once I started using these I never went back to anything else because I never had the success like I did using these levels. I've been down the same road as a lot of other people, reading millions of books about trading systems, etc, only to find most of them fail on me (ironically enough most of them fail because most dont take these levels into account). I've used some of the most complicated methods you could probably imagine, and it figures at the end of the day I end up drawing horizontal lines for a living . But like Ive said knowing when to get in has only been part of the game; trade management and things like on the list above have been the largest hurdles (but it makes it a lot easier when you can nail the entries on the head).
I was wondering if you got my PM or not
  • #959
  • Jul 10, 2008 3:40am Jul 10, 2008 3:40am
Hi BRV,

Like many others I struggle with choosing which S&R lines are significant. I was drawing S&R today on a 4 hr chart and ended up with so many S&R lines that I couldn't really see the price action on the chart. All of the S&R lines that I drew had at least 2 or more touches. This is the point where drawing S&R gets confusing for me. How do you determine what S&R lines are significant in your analysis?
  • #960
  • Jul 10, 2008 3:43am Jul 10, 2008 3:43am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi BRV,

Like many others I struggle with choosing which S&R lines are significant. I was drawing S&R today on a 4 hr chart and ended up with so many S&R lines that I couldn't really see the price action on the chart. All of the S&R lines that I drew had at least 2 or more touches. This is the point where drawing S&R gets confusing for me. How do you determine what S&R lines are significant in your analysis?
Posts 779, 780 and on p. 53 are what I could help you with for the best answer.
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