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  • #921
  • Edited 4:19am Jul 9, 2008 4:07am | Edited 4:19am
Hi Bill,

You are really rocking ......

Following this thread and it works so well.... Thanks a lot.

I am a newbie to Forex and still learning a lot.... Thanks to You...

What do you think of USDJPY.

My view is if it crosses 167.68 then it will fly ..... Just my humble view and please correct me if I am wrong ........

What is your view now about USDJPY

Thanks
The One Who Makes The Thunder Roar Also Hears A Butterfly Sigh - Ruzbeh
  • #922
  • Jul 9, 2008 4:23am Jul 9, 2008 4:23am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
and here's what happened: closed most of the position for a handful of pips, stopped out on the rest. Typical countertrend trade.
Hi Billy Ray,

When you closed most of your position (@ the circle shape I assume) did you move the s/l of the rest of your position to BE or into profit?
If moved into profit, whereto?
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #923
  • Jul 9, 2008 4:27am Jul 9, 2008 4:27am
hi i have activated the pm, how do i post an attachment.tanx
  • #924
  • Jul 9, 2008 4:33am Jul 9, 2008 4:33am
Quoting rpasupathy
Hi Bill,

You are really rocking ......

Following this thread and it works so well.... Thanks a lot.

I am a newbie to Forex and still learning a lot.... Thanks to You...

What do you think of USDJPY.

My view is if it crosses 167.68 then it will fly ..... Just my humble view and please correct me if I am wrong ........

What is your view now about USDJPY

Thanks
I'm looking for shorts on a move higher. There is a lot of resistance built up in this area now.
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  • #925
  • Jul 9, 2008 4:36am Jul 9, 2008 4:36am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Hi Billy Ray,

When you closed most of your position (@ the circle shape I assume) did you move the s/l of the rest of your position to BE or into profit?
If moved into profit, whereto?
Hi MaryP, I closed most of the position at the orange down arrow, and the circle position was my stop loss that got hit at breakeven on the rest. I gave the position a little breathing room (only a couple pips though) until it was in the money by a little more than 10 pips. Its a scalp trade, so I move in line with my expectations of the trade.
  • #926
  • Jul 9, 2008 4:47am Jul 9, 2008 4:47am
Hi Billiy and everyone,

What do you think about this situation in EURCHF
Short at point of resistance at 1.6236 ? (at sell limit line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #927
  • Edited 5:12am Jul 9, 2008 4:55am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi MaryP, I closed most of the position at the orange down arrow, and the circle position was my stop loss that got hit at breakeven on the rest. I gave the position a little breathing room (only a couple pips though) until it was in the money by a little more than 10 pips. Its a scalp trade, so I move in line with my expectations of the trade.

Thanks for your explanation,

The entry was one heck of a tight call, it reversed a couple of pips above the previous tops and if you take the spread into account it was even the harder to find the right entry level on that one.

Where was you initial s/l? It couldnt have been the red line on the first pic you posted because it was on the same level as your entry.
How many pips s/l do you allow typically for such a trade?
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #928
  • Jul 9, 2008 6:08am Jul 9, 2008 6:08am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi ozziedave -

because .7450 area was just recently used around June 13 or so, we're looking for the next big thing. Playing a bounce off of that could work for a little bit, but probability is much higher going long at the bottom of the range (.7400) that started way back in September or so.

As far as the range is concerned, for this particular trade its about 10 pips above and below. If you look at the last time price touched it you might be able to see what I mean.
Hi BRV,

In this case how do you determine which low point to choose to determine your range? I would think using the last low point would be for a bounce would the first choice? Once it goes past the last low, you have lower lows..which indicates a down trend???
  • #929
  • Jul 9, 2008 6:16am Jul 9, 2008 6:16am
Hello everybody,

I really enjoy this thread, thought i was crazy only trading with S/R when everyone else talking about high sophisticated trading system, so thank you BRV.

Like manistra I also look to get short eur/chf around 1.6234-40, sound good.
  • #930
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:09am Jul 9, 2008 7:09am
Dear Billy,

I don't understand how you drew S/Rs on the AUDUSD for a range of .9390-.9410 on post #897, a couple of pages ago on the thread. I don't see how this band hit any tops or bottoms at all. Thanks for any explanation.

Lenoxer
  • #931
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:13am Jul 9, 2008 7:13am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Thanks for your explanation,

The entry was one heck of a tight call, it reversed a couple of pips above the previous tops and if you take the spread into account it was even the harder to find the right entry level on that one.

Where was you initial s/l? It couldnt have been the red line on the first pic you posted because it was on the same level as your entry.
How many pips s/l do you allow typically for such a trade?
Hi MaryP, the initial s/l was actually right underneath this entry level by only a few pips. On a trade like this I'm expecting a direct hit of that area for a scalp only, and nothing more......when something like this is as obvious as it is, the market should turn on the dime, otherwise something else is fundamentally astray.
  • #932
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:15am Jul 9, 2008 7:15am
Dear BRV,

As well, and I don't know if I'm imagining this (and in life, and especially FX, don't we all at moments feel that we are in some sort of film noire?), but do you avoid the wicks of candles when you draw S/R lines and only include their bodies? Or, do you include the wicks in your S/Rs?

Thanks again,

L.
  • #933
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:21am Jul 9, 2008 7:21am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi BRV,

In this case how do you determine which low point to choose to determine your range? I would think using the last low point would be for a bounce would the first choice? Once it goes past the last low, you have lower lows..which indicates a down trend???

There are basically 2 very significant lows made at this price level, and other significant hits in the past......7450 area just got hit not that long ago and price is making a run for it again without any large relative bounce in regards to the overall current downtrend. Because of this, we look lower. The next obvious level, and one which is very strong, is in the .7400 area. If you were to zoom in on a 4 hr chart, you can see the numerous hits over time taken on this level. Because the level hasn't been seen in a very long time, probability is high that we'll see a bounce from it.
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  • #934
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:22am Jul 9, 2008 7:22am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear BRV,

As well, and I don't know if I'm imagining this (and in life, and especially FX, don't we all at moments feel that we are in some sort of film noire?), but do you avoid the wicks of candles when you draw S/R lines and only include their bodies? Or, do you include the wicks in your S/Rs?

Thanks again,

L.
Personally I have never used candlesticks and always use OHLC bars, but if I were to use candlesticks then I would definitely take the wicks into account 100%.
  • #935
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:31am Jul 9, 2008 7:31am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Billy,

I don't understand how you drew S/Rs on the AUDUSD for a range of .9390-.9410 on post #897, a couple of pages ago on the thread. I don't see how this band hit any tops or bottoms at all. Thanks for any explanation.

Lenoxer
I specified in the post that .9401 is the stronghold because that level in particular has been the strongest historically. If you were to draw a horizontal line on a 4hr chart at that particular level you will see what I mean. The reason for the ranges is because the market can generally have tendencies to get overexcited around these areas, by either pushing price lower looking for orders or coming close to an area and shoving off of it prematurely. Either way, we dont want to miss the trade nor get in too early.

Another thing and probably more important/relevant: the last wave up usually holds the most significance in regards to the actual market turning point. In this case, we have strong resistance which will turn into support at .9410 on the last move up. Because it is near a "00" area, however, we want to include the range below it as well, down to the double zeros. The reason for this is that many traders will have lots of orders stacked right on the double zeros, and market makers are going to want to take those out in order to gain momentum.

But its only safe to fade double zeros when they hold strong historical significance or are not sloshed around and lose significance over time. I hear a lot of FX educators saying to fade double zeros all the time but most dont know what they're talking about. The level has to have history behind it as a reactionary level and enough time lapsed from the last time it got hit in order for it to provide a decent bounce.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #936
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:36am Jul 9, 2008 7:36am
Hi Billy,
How are you today? As EU/CHF near the top of 1.6245 , will you see a opportunity to short EU/CHF
thanking you very much for your accurate analysis and teaching us to refine the entries.......
Thank you so much!
BANDA333
  • #937
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:40am Jul 9, 2008 7:40am
I'm trying to figure out what's bidding this pair up right now. Gold is a bit softer, and the US Market seems to want to follow up yesterday's gains with more strength today.

This isn't a No Brainer, but curious as to whether you see a potential short around .9550.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #938
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:44am Jul 9, 2008 7:44am
Quoting finswin56
I'm trying to figure out what's bidding this pair up right now. Gold is a bit softer, and the US Market seems to want to follow up yesterday's gains with more strength today.

This isn't a No Brainer, but curious as to whether you see a potential short around .9550.
I'm actually still holding onto a piece of this from the trade posted. I'm targeting .9580 (which also looks like the next obvious place to sell).
  • #939
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:48am Jul 9, 2008 7:48am
Quoting manistra
Hi Billiy and everyone,

What do you think about this situation in EURCHF
Short at point of resistance at 1.6236 ? (at sell limit line)
Hi manistra (and in response to BANDA as well),

Yes, it does look like a good area in general and a reaction could very well be seen from it. I generally go smaller position size on cross pairs like this though, due to the general volatility. I find the majors are much easier to guage in terms of exact reversal points. I assume a little lower probability on these crosses, but thats just me. This is only because the majors are the ones really running the show.
  • #940
  • Jul 9, 2008 7:48am Jul 9, 2008 7:48am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
There are basically 2 very significant lows made at this price level, and other significant hits in the past......7450 area just got hit not that long ago and price is making a run for it again without any large relative bounce in regards to the overall current downtrend. Because of this, we look lower. The next obvious level, and one which is very strong, is in the .7400 area. If you were to zoom in on a 4 hr chart, you can see the numerous hits over time taken on this level. Because the level hasn't been seen in a very long time, probability is high that we'll see a bounce from it.
Hi BRV,

So, since we are in a down trend on te NZD daily chart you would be looking for price to push below the most recent low to the next lower level. Is that what you are looking for?

The other question I have is since the NZD is in a downtrend why are you not looking for resistance above the current price level so you can take the rejection of that area and go short with the trend? That seems like it would be a more likely trade rather than the counter trend trade from the 7400 level.
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