a similar forum has been started on Trading room but i cannot post there as i do not have a 1KT status yet. spare me the time to read through this post and feel free to ask 'constructive questions' only as only the market itself can answer so many questions we have. in my little time of 'devoted trading' as i have been looking at the charts for over 3 years but without any insight whatsoever. but recently a thought flashed past my mind. a lot of traders will post systems and tell readers that it is suited for a particular pair and moreso, you can not trade all pairs with one mindset e.g. you can trade the Cable with a 30SL if you get your entry right but i bet you'll never try that on Gbp/Jpy as you'll get almost 100% losses. i conluded that pairs move differently and only a thorough insight of how a pair moves can guarantee profits.
i have seen indddicaatooors over the past three years and with settings adjustable, you bet you are the only one seeing what you are seeing and if it works in the market good for you.i then came to a conclusion that in this 'dungeon of Fx', you need an edge and whatever your edge will be you have to find out as soon as possible before you mortgage your house and hand over the proceeds to a broker. i got very tired of idicators and i sought a form of trading without indicators and any technical tools whatsoever i.e. no trendlines, fibonacchi, S/R and all the junks you can think of. and that brought me to the idea of trading based on probability and price action alone.
take a look at this:
if i have a system with an R/R ratio of 2:1 i.e 80SL and 40TP and it wins 85% of time, then i'll make money in the long run. alternatively, if i have a system with R/R of 1:3 i.e 40SL and 120TP and i win 20% of the time, i'll blow up my account very soon. i then came to a conclusion that regardless of the system you trade the MM and disclipline of execution is more important than the system itself.
Journey so far:
i looked EUR/USD recently and found out a pure set and forget system with a R/R slightly greater than 1:4 and works ONLY 25% of the time. this system has fetched an average of 180pips every month this year with no 'losing month'.i think that is enough to pay for internet services of coffee for your trading table. i am also looking at other pairs that can have thier own probability trading suited to them.here is an insight of how it works. let our reference point be NY close 5pm EST. After trading day resumes@ 6pm EST, if a pair moves 20pips in one direction (up or down) and the probability that it moves 40pips more in the same direction without corssing back thought the open is 45% i believe we have a probability system in place. all we just do is to set a buy stop and sell stop @ 20pips from the open and then set a TP of 40 and SL of 20. we will win 45% of the time.and in the long run we will average 7pips per trade and in a month, we get 40 triggers, then we should make around 280pips/month in the long run.
a little problem however is that you'll have to pay the spreads but somehow, we can get a particluar setting that gets us decent results.backtesting is done using EA's but i do not program and so is has slowed down the process so far. i have just one EA which i got from decoding and recoding another EA i got here from FF. i'll appreciate if this catches the fancy of an MQ4 programmer and he is willing to help.
i'll talk more later. hoping to hear your comments and 'constructive questions'
Happy trading
i have seen indddicaatooors over the past three years and with settings adjustable, you bet you are the only one seeing what you are seeing and if it works in the market good for you.i then came to a conclusion that in this 'dungeon of Fx', you need an edge and whatever your edge will be you have to find out as soon as possible before you mortgage your house and hand over the proceeds to a broker. i got very tired of idicators and i sought a form of trading without indicators and any technical tools whatsoever i.e. no trendlines, fibonacchi, S/R and all the junks you can think of. and that brought me to the idea of trading based on probability and price action alone.
take a look at this:
if i have a system with an R/R ratio of 2:1 i.e 80SL and 40TP and it wins 85% of time, then i'll make money in the long run. alternatively, if i have a system with R/R of 1:3 i.e 40SL and 120TP and i win 20% of the time, i'll blow up my account very soon. i then came to a conclusion that regardless of the system you trade the MM and disclipline of execution is more important than the system itself.
Journey so far:
i looked EUR/USD recently and found out a pure set and forget system with a R/R slightly greater than 1:4 and works ONLY 25% of the time. this system has fetched an average of 180pips every month this year with no 'losing month'.i think that is enough to pay for internet services of coffee for your trading table. i am also looking at other pairs that can have thier own probability trading suited to them.here is an insight of how it works. let our reference point be NY close 5pm EST. After trading day resumes@ 6pm EST, if a pair moves 20pips in one direction (up or down) and the probability that it moves 40pips more in the same direction without corssing back thought the open is 45% i believe we have a probability system in place. all we just do is to set a buy stop and sell stop @ 20pips from the open and then set a TP of 40 and SL of 20. we will win 45% of the time.and in the long run we will average 7pips per trade and in a month, we get 40 triggers, then we should make around 280pips/month in the long run.
a little problem however is that you'll have to pay the spreads but somehow, we can get a particluar setting that gets us decent results.backtesting is done using EA's but i do not program and so is has slowed down the process so far. i have just one EA which i got from decoding and recoding another EA i got here from FF. i'll appreciate if this catches the fancy of an MQ4 programmer and he is willing to help.
i'll talk more later. hoping to hear your comments and 'constructive questions'
Happy trading
