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  • #221
  • May 16, 2008 1:16pm May 16, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I'm looking for a retrace near the 50%-61.8% levels, where the current possible C could end. Then I'll see whether anything bearish forms. There's always of course chance for an overshoot, but 1.5730ish looks nice.

We've already broken the triangle, so I don't really see anymore buy setup left now

Hope you were in early


Looking for informed EW opinions on the posted chart, just like on USDJPY.
Your retrace area around .5750 "fits" well with the triangle breakout-target (measuring H-L inside= 200pips from breakout-level). Only doubt left for this target to be achieved is potential double top forming on 4h chart. I don't see the probability for this scenario (in-favor) but thought I should mention it anyway. As we all know there is no such thing as "100% sure".

So there is 2 scenarios I would consider bad for bulls;

Price is heading down from here and break below .5420 area. Second, the almighty support @ .5340 area (daily chart) is taken out. Then I would assume I'm not the only one looking for short positions

I still favor bulls from what my charts reveals atm, but the wind can change fast so my sails is already prepared for a different approach.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #222
  • May 17, 2008 7:21am May 17, 2008 7:21am
I am a newbie as far as eurusd is concerned since i trade gbpjpy only, but since there was nothing on gj i decided to take this.

i will favour 1.6269
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  • #223
  • May 20, 2008 8:13pm May 20, 2008 8:13pm
Dang my very first try at eurusd and it goes +200 and this pair is far better than GJ atleast it moves in 1 direction only at a time
  • #224
  • May 21, 2008 7:24am May 21, 2008 7:24am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I am watching this atm, just waiting for a pullback to support. I know its against the current view but I suspect there are enough bulls around to pull this of at least
target reached +180 how come no one pays any attention when I make a good call but everyone crowds around and watches me on my losers? lol
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #225
  • May 21, 2008 8:03am May 21, 2008 8:03am
Trade followup on call given at 54xx

Now if 5772 breaks we will be testing 6021

finally learnt how to get better screenshots with mt4
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  • #226
  • Jun 3, 2008 11:37am Jun 3, 2008 11:37am
Quoting SeekingLight
I'm looking for a retrace near the 50%-61.8% levels, where the current possible C could end. Then I'll see whether anything bearish forms. There's always of course chance for an overshoot, but 1.5730ish looks nice.

We've already broken the triangle, so I don't really see anymore buy setup left now

Hope you were in early

Looking for informed EW opinions on the posted chart, just like on USDJPY.

We got to 1.5815 before we terminated and formed what I'm currently viewing as B's end(could also be a II of a new bigger move).

Here's an updated count of what I've been trading down since the first bearish outside bar / candle from 1.5815.

Again, if there's anyone with a CLUE in Elliott Wave, opinions are always appreciated, especially since I never really know how to get a decent 5th Wave projection(I know about taking variations of Wave 1 and the simplified Wave 4 extensions, but still, I wonder whether there's anything more precise..)

I'd like to add the usual disclaimer that this is just hobby charting.
I trade the PA on the chart, the waves just tag along.

As for hierarchy, that 5 would most likely be C.I. and a retrace(C.II) would follow, after which a rather ugly C.III with a lot of wailing in the USD bear camp should follow - in theory.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #227
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:49am Jun 4, 2008 4:49am
Stop playin' with us euro/usd, we all know you're bullish until daily support is taken out. Lets see if this area would tempt (big) buyers once again.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #228
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:25am Jun 19, 2008 5:25am
I couldn't resist posting this picture perfect set up on this morning's chart.....a spike to hit a fib extension and todays R2 plus a prior high, all in the run up to Frankies Hour and then the sell off after the LO....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #229
  • Jul 3, 2008 5:45pm Jul 3, 2008 5:45pm
Here is my analyses. A possibility of a break down on the h1 charts can lead to another drop to s1 at around 1.5619, however I can be wrong as well and the uptrend channel can possibly continue eventually back to 1.58XX, If it breaks down we can throw the up channel out of the question. There is a tiny wedge/descending triangle forming a break up of this would preserve the channel and a breakdown would violate it.
Also based on my RSI analyses todays news could have plunged the pair to a new range in the RSI 60/20 are the charachteristics of a downtrend, 80/20 is one of an uptrend, if the 60/20 holds I will be looking for RSI up channel breakdowns and/or reversals around the 60 level of the RSI.

cheers.

We shall see what this pair will do in the upcoming weeks.
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"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #230
  • Jul 5, 2008 10:13am Jul 5, 2008 10:13am
yesterday...

A: good support of buyers

B: Stop hunt of small traders or the traders that don't risk using stops to lock in profits... What it does in fact is to lose the possibility to have a better profit. Here there is no other rule... more risk=more profit.

My opinion is that we are going higher after the hunt.
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  • #231
  • Edited 3:31pm Jul 5, 2008 1:14pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting aediaz1
Stop playin' with us euro/usd, we all know you're bullish until daily support is taken out. Lets see if this area would tempt (big) buyers once again.
Here's a chart that makes sense-this is the only chart trade desks are using and this is what it comes down to:

E/U will not break above the band and trend up now that the ECB is on hold so you are well advised to sell in that area if you're lucky enough to see price hit there again. But don't expect any major gains for the dollar at this time either.

What we really have is a lack of "traction." The Fed's not going anywhere and neither is the ECB apparently so with both economies weakening-where is the advantage?

The new ECB stance is probably not strong enough by itself to break the daily support. There is some suspicion that the Fed might tighten policy in December (I personally have zero belief in that) but if traders really believe it, the daily support in the lower 1.53's will get taken out. But I doubt that will happen now, given the present information.

I see E/U back in the band for now.
  • #232
  • Jul 8, 2008 5:36am Jul 8, 2008 5:36am
Long the EURO to at least 1.62. Most likely 1.65.

I think it will be an incredibly fast ascent by our standards. This is a typical point in a strong bull market when the consensus views start to change. Something new for the herd to jump on, especially the media. Now that the EURO is not a sure bet anymore, that is exactly the time to get long for the last run of an incredibly strong bull market in this currency.

My best guess is that we will not see a significant shift in flows until after the November elections in the US and likely not until 2009. This will give all the herd time to run the market and take profit for P&L statements through the end of the year.

Don't blink or hesitate, get long.
  • #233
  • Edited 7:30am Jul 8, 2008 6:26am | Edited 7:30am
+This is what I see (but of coz, mkt never goes wrong, opinions often are)!!
+Ben will be talking in 30 mins time!!


Sonic
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  • #234
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:08am Jul 8, 2008 8:08am
You were right on! Great job Sonicdeejay
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #235
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:20am Jul 8, 2008 8:20am
just add more short now.
my target is major support using Murrey Math 1.5625 which near to yesterday's low.we now below Pivot.but b4 news gonna move to BE so if news against me no risk but if follow me..count me the pips lol.
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  • #236
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:46am Jul 8, 2008 8:46am
I see more Sellers than Buyers this past hour.
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"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #237
  • Jul 8, 2008 9:05am Jul 8, 2008 9:05am
Quoting CTGUY
You were right on! Great job Sonicdeejay


I do make entry based on my MM as followed!!

Money Management
Open Trade with 5 Lots (or 0.5) with Stop Loss 80 pips away

Take Profit on 1st Lot at 30 pips. Stop Loss move to Break Even (BE).
Take Profit on 2nd Lot at 60 pips.
Take Profit on 3rd Lot at 90 pips.
Take Profit on 4th Lot at 120 pips.
Let the 5th Lot run until you see an opposite entry signal.


sonic
  • #238
  • Jul 8, 2008 9:12am Jul 8, 2008 9:12am
Quoting B@by trader
just add more short now.
my target is major support using Murrey Math 1.5625 which near to yesterday's low.we now below Pivot.but b4 news gonna move to BE so if news against me no risk but if follow me..count me the pips lol.
news bad for us but looks like last week scenario repeat now sl to BE.
and I think my target achieved today (gmt+8)
  • #239
  • Jul 8, 2008 10:16am Jul 8, 2008 10:16am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Long the EURO to at least 1.62. Most likely 1.65.

I think it will be an incredibly fast ascent by our standards. This is a typical point in a strong bull market when the consensus views start to change. Something new for the herd to jump on, especially the media. Now that the EURO is not a sure bet anymore, that is exactly the time to get long for the last run of an incredibly strong bull market in this currency.

My best guess is that we will not see a significant shift in flows until after the November elections in the US and likely not until 2009. This will give all the herd time to run the market and take profit for P&L statements through the end of the year.

Don't blink or hesitate, get long.
Ah-Hah-you do trade fundamentals...lol

Seriously though, EUR/USD will not be approaching 1.62 any time soon. And if you really want to consider politics, consider that there is a very strong correlation between presidential popularity and the dollar. And when Obama wins in November, it's highly likely that presidential popularity will be a lot higher than it is now.
  • #240
  • Jul 8, 2008 10:55am Jul 8, 2008 10:55am
I like what I see. This is a very interesting management system.

Thanks for sharing it with us

Quoting sonicdeejay


I do make entry based on my MM as followed!!

Money Management
Open Trade with 5 Lots (or 0.5) with Stop Loss 80 pips away

Take Profit on 1st Lot at 30 pips. Stop Loss move to Break Even (BE).
Take Profit on 2nd Lot at 60 pips.
Take Profit on 3rd Lot at 90 pips.
Take Profit on 4th Lot at 120 pips.
Let the 5th Lot run until you see an opposite entry signal.


sonic
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
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