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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,941
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:37am Jul 7, 2008 4:37am
See chart EUR/USD with timeframe 5m
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  • #15,942
  • Edited 7:52pm Jul 7, 2008 4:40am | Edited 7:52pm
12:00 RB
Entry:1.5662 SL:1.5607 TP:1.5700
Total gain 39.0 pips

Thank Phillip for he give us so excellent trading system!

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  • #15,943
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:41am Jul 7, 2008 4:41am
Second chart 5m
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  • #15,944
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:48am Jul 7, 2008 4:48am
EUR/USD Chart TF 4h
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  • #15,945
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:59am Jul 7, 2008 4:59am
E-trader : do you setup on 4 hour TF and do more specific timings on 5 min... ? or do you also setup on 5 min ? cheers Walter.
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  • #15,946
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:05am Jul 7, 2008 7:05am
Quoting axc
12:00 RB
Entry:1.5662 SL:1.5607 TP:1.5700
Thank Phillip for he give us so excellent trading system!
Attachment
ur Risk:reward ratio is more than 1 in this trade and becarefull when u trade CT.thease trades need more experience and i advise start to trade with TC trades if u r new to this system .and remember phillip never puts SL more than 50pips.
  • #15,947
  • Edited 8:10am Jul 7, 2008 7:09am | Edited 8:10am
Open price: 1.5627
SL Price: 1.5666, SL: 39 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.5606, 0.3/1.5571, 0.2/1.5543, TP: 44 (21, 56, 84) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.13.
Conclusion: trade is OK.

Cons: SMA200 is close; white bar with long lower tail - buying pressure from about 1.5610;
Pros: a TC from EMA8; bearish engulfing candle; some space to SMA200 to move to BE

In positive case if 0.5 reaches TP1 (22 pips), will move another 0.5 to BE.
In negative - if price makes a HH and HL on 5min, will be looking for exit with small loss.

Edit1:
40 minutes after opening - unfixed loss of -30 pips, retracement more than 61.8% of signal bar; seems to be a bad trade.

Edit2:
and vualya - stoploss, -38 pips. There was no chance to exit at BE.

Could anybody explain, why this setup may be worse than a similar TC on EU on last Fri? Or it was "just one of those bad"?
Attached Image
  • #15,948
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:32am Jul 7, 2008 7:32am
i am not comfortable for any trade right now...i just don't think it's a good idea to go on with a short on Eu/Gu just now, i would love to see the pairs retrace a bit, maybe 30-50 pips (signs of roundbottoms on the 1H) a Tc then on the MACD will be a high probablity trade. meanwhile i am very comfortable scalping my way around with Phillips 5 min system...
I believe . . .
  • #15,949
  • Jul 7, 2008 8:26am Jul 7, 2008 8:26am
Quoting Yorik
Open price: 1.5627
SL Price: 1.5666, SL: 39 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.5606, 0.3/1.5571, 0.2/1.5543, TP: 44 (21, 56, 84) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.13.
Conclusion: trade is OK.

Cons: SMA200 is close; white bar with long lower tail - buying pressure from about 1.5610;
Pros: a TC from EMA8; bearish engulfing candle; some space to SMA200 to move to BE

In positive case if 0.5 reaches TP1 (22 pips), will move another 0.5 to BE.
In negative - if price makes a HH and HL on 5min, will be looking for exit with small loss.

Edit1:
40 minutes after opening - unfixed loss of -30 pips, retracement more than 61.8% of signal bar; seems to be a bad trade.

Edit2:
and vualya - stoploss, -38 pips. There was no chance to exit at BE.

Could anybody explain, why this setup may be worse than a similar TC on EU on last Fri? Or it was "just one of those bad"?
The price closed inbetween the 89sma and 200sma. Price is caught between 2 levels of support on the 200sma and resistance the 89sma. There is not enough room down to the 200sma to make the R:R OK.

Look at the trade I did today on the GbpUsd. Similar situation but the R:R down to the 200sma was OK.
  • #15,950
  • Edited 9:07am Jul 7, 2008 8:29am | Edited 9:07am
GbpUsd gave TC 0:00-04:00 but price touched 89sma and closed

above. The 04:00-08:00 candle however closed lower below the 89sma with a strong possibility thet it will go down to the 200sma below.


R:R worked out OK to the 200sma


Enter 1.9755

SL 1.9789

TP 1.9818
Will close 50% after 25pips and set remainder at 25 trailing stop.
Edit 1
50% closed after 25pips and remainder set to 25trailing stop
Edit 2
Trailing stop closed for 56pips
Total gain (25+56)/2 = 39.5

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  • #15,951
  • Jul 7, 2008 9:06am Jul 7, 2008 9:06am
Quoting Phillip Nel
The price closed inbetween the 89sma and 200sma. Price is caught between 2 levels of support on the 200sma and resistance the 89sma. There is not enough room down to the 200sma to make the R:R OK.

Look at the trade I did today on the GbpUsd. Similar situation but the R:R down to the 200sma was OK.
Thanks, Phillip. And your trade on GU is quite nice.

The more I watch this system and the thread, the more I see that without experience, knowing of market motion, the rules even of this system may not help. I've backtested 7 months of 2007 on EU, taking only TCs (BOZ, ZB) and the result is about 0 after 37 trades. Similar I have for real-time demo since the end of March'08 (17 trades). Filtration of TC's only is not a so simple task as it may seem at the beginning.
  • #15,952
  • Jul 7, 2008 9:57am Jul 7, 2008 9:57am
now that's more like it, Gu, Eu Uj and Au all seem to be retracing back, i am glad i did not get carried away by that move down earlier in the day...PHEW!! i am now waiting for a proper Tc pattern on the MACD...cheers this system...
I believe . . .
  • #15,953
  • Jul 7, 2008 10:00am Jul 7, 2008 10:00am
Quoting Yorik
Thanks, Phillip. And your trade on GU is quite nice.

The more I watch this system and the thread, the more I see that without experience, knowing of market motion, the rules even of this system may not help. I've backtested 7 months of 2007 on EU, taking only TCs (BOZ, ZB) and the result is about 0 after 37 trades. Similar I have for real-time demo since the end of March'08 (17 trades). Filtration of TC's only is not a so simple task as it may seem at the beginning.
Hi
I would like to see your backtesting results for the 7months of 2007. I made some demo trades as well during that period when I was testing this system and did well.
  • #15,954
  • Jul 7, 2008 10:25am Jul 7, 2008 10:25am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I have done my 100th trade since posting it from Oct2007.
Only 9 losses
Nicely Done!!!
  • #15,955
  • Jul 7, 2008 10:34am Jul 7, 2008 10:34am
Quoting watchout4me
Anyone, what factor(s) do you consider in trading against the trend using this strategy?

thanks
This may have been answered already -- Very important to consider support/resistance (for a sell counter, you want to see price close below a trendline) breaks/failures along w/candle pattern and MACD confirmation (if you see divergence starting to play out, even better). Look for long wicks along w/the trendline as a clue that price couldn't quite find the strength to keep moving in trend direction for the moment and profit taking or changing sentiment has occured. In a ranging market, trade near support resistance with rounding macd pattern.

Practice with historical price charts and your trendlines and see how well countertrend trades work for you.

Happy Trading!
Pips
  • #15,956
  • Jul 7, 2008 10:39am Jul 7, 2008 10:39am
Quoting sriloba
Hi Pete,

Thank you.

I started to learn a forex since October 2005. I bought a course from Forexmentor (Peter Bain). I read every thing written on forex : how to read a chart properly, do a top down analysis, Steve Nison books on candlesticks, Mark Douglas book on Trading in the zone, Chris Lori courses and others professionnal traders books. After learned all those systems which were wonderful but I feel I'm still miss something for my trading career. In the past, I had a big problem to determine a trend. I traded counter trend all the time. I blew my account twice. So I stop trading for a while and start to look a system that fits for my style. So, I ask myself what kind of system is better for me. I like the moving average for determine the trend in a specific period. So God lead me to forexfactory and found a 4 hour macd system written by Phillip Neil since a year. I was happy to grab on the documents for free so I started serously learning the 4 hour macd system. Now, I am very successful to trade with this system.

Long story just to prove that I love to trade as my home commission based bussiness.

SRILOBA
Thanks for sharing your story of dedication to learning FOREX. It is important for us all to see that it takes time, study, hardwork, patience and discipline to trade well. Also, helpful to see that we all have the experiences -- only how we choose to utilize those events are different. Thanks again, and welcome to this wonderful community!

Best,
Pips
  • #15,957
  • Jul 7, 2008 10:44am Jul 7, 2008 10:44am
Quoting fena74
Well,I managed support and resistance,trendlines someway but it is dificult to me to know which candle reverse signals are good for looking and have more strenght?If anybody can say wish signals are more relative I will be happy to know that.I study candle paterns but too much candle patterns and I am a little bit confused wich ones are more relative in revers paterns signals. Thank you.
Study Harami, doji and engulfing -- look for conformation w/doji and harami and especially pay attention to where they are occuring in relation to price. The most important thing you can do to find the patterns and how well you can trade them is to practice identifying them and looking at how you would have handled a trade w/them. Trade historical charts and keep a tally of how they played out. Study the relationship of the candles along with support/resistance.
  • #15,958
  • Jul 7, 2008 11:14am Jul 7, 2008 11:14am
Quoting walterw
E-trader : do you setup on 4 hour TF and do more specific timings on 5 min... ? or do you also setup on 5 min ? cheers Walter.
Good evening Walter,

Initial setup on the 4h timeframe and a more specific timing on a lower timeframe.

Plot or draw a horizontal line with the value of the sma 200 on the lower timeframe and watch price behaviour (price action, patterns) near the sma.

A lower timeframe is used when the price is almost near the sma 200.
Identify a reversal on the lower timeframe, then enter the trade.

The stoploss stays under the 200 sma.
The value of the 8 ema will change when the trade is in progress, so the target is set 5 to 10pips lower then the initial value of the 8 ema. You can adjust the profit target during the trade (pull down the limit sell order on the chart with the mouse).

I think, nothing new in this post

Greetings
  • #15,959
  • Jul 7, 2008 11:30am Jul 7, 2008 11:30am
hi all, I just took this trade and will appreciate any opinion about it. I saw an aggressive turnaround on MACD or Vertical Bottom Bullish Engulfing candle in a morning star, MACD is way below the -45 horizontal level (turnaround possibility) Price broke through 89SMA, 200SMA, 365SMA in one candle Strong signal candle but width too much therefore used a three stage entry rule Entry 1: 1.9780 Entry 2 30% of candle width: 1.9734 Entry 3 45% of candle width: 1.9716 (might not get filled) TP 1: 1.9800 price level TP 2: 1.9811 21 EMA TP 3: 1.9850 TP 4: 1.9867 50% fib level SL: 1.9730 Any observation will be appreciated.
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"Forex is like a bitch every trader must marry one"
  • #15,960
  • Jul 7, 2008 12:35pm Jul 7, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting don_tgomez
hi all, I just took this trade and will appreciate any opinion about it. I saw an aggressive turnaround on MACD or Vertical Bottom Bullish Engulfing candle in a morning star, MACD is way below the -45 horizontal level (turnaround possibility) Price broke through 89SMA, 200SMA, 365SMA in one candle Strong signal candle but width too much therefore used a three stage entry rule Entry 1: 1.9780 Entry 2 30% of candle width: 1.9734 Entry 3 45% of candle width: 1.9716 (might not get filled) TP 1: 1.9800 price level TP 2: 1.9811 21 EMA TP 3: 1.9850 TP 4: 1.9867 50% fib level SL: 1.9730 Any observation will be appreciated.
i hope u take profit from this trade but i have my 3 personal reasons for not to trade:
1-9790 level(look at the picture below)
2-bad time in the day
3-strange market movment (130pips down and then 130pips up very fast in a monday market).i just dont like this kind of movments and i'd like to trade in a more stable market
regards
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