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  • #821
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:17am Jul 7, 2008 4:17am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Hi Billy Ray,

Excuse my ignorance but what's SPX ?
US Equities; S&P500 Index - here's a chart of the nearest futures contract - our economy is so screwed right now anyway though so as usual anything is possible but you can see from the chart where the odds are. USD/JPY correlation to the S&P Index is a usually a crowd pleaser.
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  • #822
  • Jul 7, 2008 5:44am Jul 7, 2008 5:44am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yet another article on guaging market sentiment and predicting daily direction / seeing where the smart money is. Strategy is along the same lines, but talks more in depth about the Commitment of Traders Report.

http://www.babypips.com/school/getti...ith_forex.html

Most people brush this stuff off in lieu of MACD's and RSI's, but if you REALLY want to know what's going on you should be looking at this data.

Also, because of liquidity issues, I can say from my experience working at a multi billion-dollar hedge fund that these positions are oftentimes difficult to scale out of/in other words, they stay in them and take them off in bits and pieces; so they're usually good for several days or weeks or months, depending on the situation. Scalping is not a common practice for many of these investors, especially on futures or equities purchasing very large quantities. They're the ones moving the market, and shouldn't be ignored.

Use this link for free cot charts: http://www.timingcharts.com/ or http://www.freecotcharts.com
Has anyone accessed timingcharts recently?I haven't been able to get on the site for a while.
I was wondering if the address has changed or if it is a problem with my ISP
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #823
  • Jul 7, 2008 5:59am Jul 7, 2008 5:59am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
USD/JPY as posted in previous posts, but the trade is unfortunately already on I'm in the money about 10 pips so far......went right up to the 70's
whats your profit target...i am looking at around 106.95..or do u think it could go further?
Fear's for the other guy
  • #824
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:18am Jul 7, 2008 6:18am
Quoting steve10%
Has anyone accessed timingcharts recently?I haven't been able to get on the site for a while.
I was wondering if the address has changed or if it is a problem with my ISP
Connected fine from the link above just now...
Making sense of it though is an entirely different matter....
  • #825
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:23am Jul 7, 2008 6:23am
Quoting Epipip
Connected fine from the link above just now...
Making sense of it though is an entirely different matter....
Thanks I'll have to try and get in contact with ISP to see what can be done
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #826
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:50am Jul 7, 2008 6:50am
OK, been lurking, asked a couple of questions, now to get shot down in flames ... lol.

If I have understood the great information in the this thread I see (and have an order waiting) for gbpusd long at 19658 - SL at 19623. Would have been more confident if this was near one of the fib levels but still looks good to me.

Waiting with the fire extinguisher!!!
  • #827
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:19am Jul 7, 2008 7:19am
Sorry, wrong thread
TTFN Merlyn
  • #828
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:28am Jul 7, 2008 7:28am
Quoting lesterthecat
OK, been lurking, asked a couple of questions, now to get shot down in flames ... lol.

If I have understood the great information in the this thread I see (and have an order waiting) for gbpusd long at 19658 - SL at 19623. Would have been more confident if this was near one of the fib levels but still looks good to me.

Waiting with the fire extinguisher!!!
I definitely like the lower end of that level down to 19600, but my opinion isn't worth so much
  • #829
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:44am Jul 7, 2008 7:44am
Quoting mrhurley1
whats your profit target...i am looking at around 106.95..or do u think it could go further?
I would like to see 107.28 get hit followed by, yes, 106.95 appx. Again though sort of a tough call today moving against the dollar just based on the overall equities situation, so again, using a bit of caution.

Your best bet in a situation like today is to take partial profits at each support level. For instance, the first on this trade was appx 107.41 (if you look at an hourly or less you should be able to see it).
  • #830
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:46am Jul 7, 2008 7:46am
Hello Billy and Thread,

A good week to us all. May I ask which pairs you trade and which you don't?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #831
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:48am Jul 7, 2008 7:48am
Quoting lesterthecat
OK, been lurking, asked a couple of questions, now to get shot down in flames ... lol.

If I have understood the great information in the this thread I see (and have an order waiting) for gbpusd long at 19658 - SL at 19623. Would have been more confident if this was near one of the fib levels but still looks good to me.

Waiting with the fire extinguisher!!!
Actually 1.9612-1.9598 looks like the next safe buy area - above that could consider 1.9638-24 for possible moves.
  • #832
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:51am Jul 7, 2008 7:51am
Quoting Lenoxer
Hello Billy and Thread,

A good week to us all. May I ask which pairs you trade and which you don't?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
Hi Lenoxer,
Mainly EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF all against the dollar and EURJPY, sometimes GBPJPY.
  • #833
  • Jul 7, 2008 8:01am Jul 7, 2008 8:01am
Quoting finswin56
I definitely like the lower end of that level down to 19600, but my opinion isn't worth so much
your opinion = everyone else's here
  • #834
  • Jul 7, 2008 9:33am Jul 7, 2008 9:33am
looking to sell gbp/usd at 1.98 if we get back there
Fear's for the other guy
  • #835
  • Jul 7, 2008 10:16am Jul 7, 2008 10:16am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
If there is a crawl higher, look for 107.35-107.44 followed by 107.73; both very solid levels, 107.73 holding higher probability.
Something I see a lot thats worth noting; I'll use this JPY trade as an example.

Price went into the range of resistance and made an initial fade from 107.70. I had 107.68 as my first level in this range, followed by 107.73 (107.73 being the stronghold).

Price then retraced about 28 pips, and crawled right back up to 107.75, and fell off rather hard. Call it stop running, etc., whatever you may, there are usually a bunch of orders stacked around these key areas. It isn't uncommon to get a fake pullback very close to a level without touching it, and then later hitting the level right on the head before making a sharp decline. Bigger players want to be on the same side of the trade as anyone else, and in order to gain mementum, orders need to be filled. Using this situation as a scenario, whether they are stop order closing longs or just new sell orders, they cause momentum and make the market turn.

So bottom line: If you have an exact price at a very significant area be patient and wait until it gets hit. Had I been faked out by this trade and closed it out at breakeven after the initial fade I wouldn't have any opportunity to see it continue. So far from the 107.73 level about +32 pips.
  • #836
  • Edited 11:50am Jul 7, 2008 11:39am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting mrhurley1
whats your profit target...i am looking at around 106.95..or do u think it could go further?
Trade up to +60 pips from 107.73 so far....first profit target hit - just waiting on the rest.

More commentary than usual on this trade due to the timing over the holiday weekend but results anyway, regardless sorry for dragging it out; not our norm here.
  • #837
  • Jul 7, 2008 12:19pm Jul 7, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
If there is a crawl higher, look for 107.35-107.44 followed by 107.73; both very solid levels, 107.73 holding higher probability.
Went over +100 pips and, the way the US equity market is behaving, leaving a piece of it running for a longer haul; hopefully wont be an issue.
  • #838
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:57pm Jul 7, 2008 6:57pm
Morning,

Anyone take this on the Eur/Usd yesterday. I think i'm getting the hang of this. Now watch it all go pear shaped at the next turn
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  • #839
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:35pm Jul 7, 2008 7:35pm
Inserted Video



OK I feel Lucky so I'm posting some trades after the brew haha this morning with Fannie may and Freddie MAC I'm betting on alittle mean reversion.

Thanks FXORCE for the article http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...6kE&refer=home

Sell EURUSD @ 1.5730-50 If you scale in which is never a bad idea then put half on the low end and put the other half on the high end.

Buy USDCHF (THE SWISS) I always want to call it the Chef because of CHF

But I digress

Buy the USDCHF @ 1.0220-1.0235

Last one I have is the EJ

Sell EURJPY @ 168.60-80

I was really watching for this one to get back up in the 169.20-50 area and retest the high. But with the USD taking it on the chin today I'm willing to go half size on a sell if it makes this level. London will tell the true story.

Happy trading to all!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #840
  • Edited 9:00pm Jul 7, 2008 8:33pm | Edited 9:00pm
Quoting Iron-man
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiBhL...eature=related


OK I feel Lucky so I'm posting some trades after the brew haha this morning with Fannie may and Freddie MAC I'm betting on alittle mean reversion.

Thanks FXORCE for the article http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...6kE&refer=home

Sell EURUSD @ 1.5730-50 If you scale in which is never a bad idea then put half on the low end and put the other half on the high end.

Buy USDCHF (THE SWISS) I always want to call it the Chef because of CHF

But I digress

Buy the USDCHF @ 1.0220-1.0235

Last one I have is the EJ

Sell EURJPY @ 168.60-80

I was really watching for this one to get back up in the 169.20-50 area and retest the high. But with the USD taking it on the chin today I'm willing to go half size on a sell if it makes this level. London will tell the true story.

Happy trading to all!
You basically nailed all 3 of these turns....thats what I get for sleeping.

Duke & Duke can stuff those commissions:
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