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  • #801
  • Jul 4, 2008 6:15pm Jul 4, 2008 6:15pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short USD/JPY 107.20 area

You can't see it on this chart, but historically this level has held up very well; also coinciding with a .618 retracement. The furthest I think it would push is to 107.35. There is resistance right ahead of this mark at 107.08. If price makes a sizable retracement from it (107.08), I would be hesitant about entering another short so close, and wait it out to the 107.71-63 area.
Cant edit this post so a reply will have to do....looking at the current price action pushing the sell a little higher on this one looks like the best thing to do....towards 107.35 or lower. Funky day without the US playing along.
  • #802
  • Jul 5, 2008 12:27am Jul 5, 2008 12:27am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Cant edit this post so a reply will have to do....looking at the current price action pushing the sell a little higher on this one looks like the best thing to do....towards 107.35 or lower. Funky day without the US playing along.
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Not sure I understand 107.35.
RIPPIN' THEIR PIPS BEFORE THEY RIP MINE
  • #803
  • Jul 5, 2008 10:20am Jul 5, 2008 10:20am
Quoting PipRipper
Attachment

Not sure I understand 107.35.
You would need to be looking at a lower timeframe (4hr or less); also, the indicator you're using unfortunately wont be as reliable as your own set of eyes when it comes to these areas. They tend to miss a lot of important things. At 107.35, there have been several instances where its being used as both support and resistance; that's all. Typically areas like this are safe buys/sells on an intraday basis.
  • #804
  • Edited 8:05pm Jul 5, 2008 10:42am | Edited 8:05pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
You would need to be looking at a lower timeframe (4hr or less); also, the indicator you're using unfortunately wont be as reliable as your own set of eyes when it comes to these areas. They tend to miss a lot of important things. At 107.35, there have been several instances where its being used as both support and resistance; that's all. Typically areas like this are safe buys/sells on an intraday basis.
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Thanks BillyRayValentine. I should have thought to switch time frames. Or had I looked closer on the D1 and plotted a line at 107.35 then I would not have had to ask:

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I see 107.35 as a close twice and a low once. Thanks again.
RIPPIN' THEIR PIPS BEFORE THEY RIP MINE
  • #805
  • Jul 5, 2008 7:53pm Jul 5, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting PipRipper
Attachment

Thanks BillyRayValentine. I should have thought to switch time frames. Or had I looked closer on the D1 and plotted a line at 107.35 then I would have had to ask:

Attachment

I see 107.35 as a close twice and a low once. Thanks again.
No problem! Usually when you get price action like this before a level like this you need to reanalyze the entry, just based on how closely price has already stalled near it. When it pulls back like this so close it generally needs some more breathing room before it starts to pull back again. Either way, better safe than sorry. If price does pull back and entry gets missed, better to miss overall than risk the drawdown or failure.
  • #806
  • Jul 6, 2008 12:59pm Jul 6, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting c-note
aud/jpy hitting resistance level at 102.80 which also is .764 retracement. could be a good short area.However often when price retraces this far it goes back up to te-test the high.
True that could happen. The other scenario: When the 76.4 fib gets rejected you will usually see a descent pullback and sometimes a trend reversal. While I never bank all I have on the latter there is something to be said for the former. Also notice on your chart that there was resistance at this level further back. Many of the Yen crosses were up against resistance points on Friday at the close of market, which often leads to a gap down on Sunday.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #807
  • Jul 6, 2008 3:14pm Jul 6, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting Iron-man
True that could happen. The other scenario: When the 76.4 fib gets rejected you will usually see a descent pullback and sometimes a trend reversal. While I never bank all I have on the latter there is something to be said for the former. Also notice on your chart that there was resistance at this level further back. Many of the Yen crosses were up against resistance points on Friday at the close of market, which often leads to a gap down on Sunday.

How would you play those gaps if at all?
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #808
  • Jul 6, 2008 6:11pm Jul 6, 2008 6:11pm
Quoting Mary Pippins
How would you play those gaps if at all?
Gap trading can work out very well when understood. There are also a few add-on rules that I have that seem to reduce risk. Gaps occur all over the place but the only ones I am interested in are the ones that happen on Sunday. Yen crosses are the currencies that offer the best opportunities. My personal favorvite is GBPJPY.

So the way gaps work for those who don't know is this. If price gaps down then a resistance line is formed at the top of the gap and if price gaps up a support line is formed at the bottom of the gap. SO just as in other areas of S&R these are places you can buy and sell from as price usually goes back to "close the gap"

But what I look for is the more speculative venture of will a gap be there on Sunday which means I have to enter the trade late on Friday near market close.
My rule is simple. I only hold sells, NEVER buys. Let me say that again. NEVER buys. Historically sells payoff much better.

What is my signal? I look for a BIG rally on Friday that ends near a resistance line. I go short near the close on Friday and I PAY interest for the negative carry.

If the market opens lower on Sunday you can take the money and run, always wise. You can hold out for more. Initally you will start to lose money as price moves to close the gap. If it fails to do so you are usually in for a big payday. One of the things I do is take the trade on GBPJPY and watch EJ and UJ . If they close their gaps first then there is a good chance that GJ will turn and go lower as will the other xxxJPY crosses. About six weeks back this happened when GJ broke through a tough resistance area in the 208.70 area on Friday in the closing hour of the session. On Sunday it opened 200 pips lower. It then retraced 100 or so of those pips. At that time the EJ and UJ closed their gaps. GJ then proceeded to drop another 400 pips from there.

Now, of course the other question is, OK I go short and on Sunday price goes up, now what? That can happen, that will happen, that has happened. But it has been my experience that price doesn't gap up as high as it gaps down. Usually 40 pips up is a large gap. So you take the trade and Sunday your sell is down 40 or so pips. The fact that the tendency is for price to close the gap is in your favor of closing the trade at or near break even. Then of course you can go long from the resistance area at the bottom of the gap.

I realize this is a bit of a departure from the no brainer trades. My apologies, Billy Ray. I certainly don't want to alter the course of this thread. I like how it has developed.
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #809
  • Jul 6, 2008 8:24pm Jul 6, 2008 8:24pm
Predicting gap is very easy.
These are only for Fridays

When the dj closes up more than 100+ pips then go long on EJ or GJ
When DJ closes down more than 100+ pips then go short EJ or GJ

Watch out for some of those crooked brokers.. on sunday spreads can be as high as 15 to 17 pips..
  • #810
  • Jul 6, 2008 8:33pm Jul 6, 2008 8:33pm
Quoting Iron-man
True that could happen. The other scenario: When the 76.4 fib gets rejected you will usually see a descent pullback and sometimes a trend reversal. While I never bank all I have on the latter there is something to be said for the former. Also notice on your chart that there was resistance at this level further back. Many of the Yen crosses were up against resistance points on Friday at the close of market, which often leads to a gap down on Sunday.
That was the reason for pointing out the 102.80 level.That area has been resistance across several time frames. As of this writing, it appears to be holding once again
  • #811
  • Jul 6, 2008 11:08pm Jul 6, 2008 11:08pm
Hi everyone,
So back to it. First and foremost the USD/JPY trade I posted earlier has been seeing a fair amount of abnormal price action due to the spotty liquidity over the past couple of days; pretty expected.

Yet because of this I find myself talking about this trade more than others in the past, really. (not something I like to do - the more I have to reanalyze it the less inclined I am to trade at all). Its failing from 107.25 as we speak for +20 pips the most so far, I believe. I realized I revised my comments on it, looking for a push a little higher up; whether or not it'll be seen is yet to come. If there is a crawl higher, look for 107.35-107.44 followed by 107.73; both very solid levels, 107.73 holding higher probability.

While I'm waiting for futures sentiment to come in from last week, no reason to adjust the current strategy in the meantime. I'll let you know when the fresh goods arrive from the factory, but thats it for now. Should be a good week ahead as there are alot of areas to knock into this week after last week's ending volatility.
  • #812
  • Jul 6, 2008 11:42pm Jul 6, 2008 11:42pm
Hi,

I've taken a short on this one. Pretty heavy resistance with a bounce off the 61.8 fib level from the last swing up.
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  • #813
  • Jul 7, 2008 2:08am Jul 7, 2008 2:08am
Quoting c-note
That was the reason for pointing out the 102.80 level.That area has been resistance across several time frames. As of this writing, it appears to be holding once again
I was more responding to the second half of your statement, the detail of which supported the first half of your statement. I probably wasn't clear on that. Keep up the good work.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #814
  • Jul 7, 2008 3:28am Jul 7, 2008 3:28am
A lot of great posts over the past week.
BRV, those S/R posts were great. Thank you very much for getting into the detail of how you see these trades.
  • #815
  • Jul 7, 2008 3:34am Jul 7, 2008 3:34am
Quoting finswin56
A lot of great posts over the past week.
BRV, those S/R posts were great. Thank you very much for getting into the detail of how you see these trades.
No prob. By the way JPY is in the money range for shorts right now. Just took one myself but using caution with the SPX at major support.
  • #816
  • Jul 7, 2008 3:35am Jul 7, 2008 3:35am
Quoting neel123
Predicting gap is very easy.
These are only for Fridays

When the dj closes up more than 100+ pips then go long on EJ or GJ
When DJ closes down more than 100+ pips then go short EJ or GJ

Watch out for some of those crooked brokers.. on sunday spreads can be as high as 15 to 17 pips..
I base my suggestions, which were solicited, on 3 years of personally recorded data. I personally spend about 3 hours every weekend reviewing the charts and planning the upcoming week. If I say something it comes from my personal experience. I do not quote other people's primers and past them off as my own ideas. (I know exactly where your suggested strategy comes from)

Anyone who hangs their hat on signals from another market and trades it like a robot (+100 buy -100 sell) is doomed to failure.

Even NewstraderFX, a guy who points out the often correlated moves between the Dow Jones and the GBPJPY has stated lately there has been a decoupling of these two markets.

Fundamentally, things shift and change, which leaves us with the historical price action and S&R. Which is why this thread came to be.

So historically the BIGGER paydays (Which is ALL I care about) are to the downside in GJ gaps. I will not risk a 150 pip gap down to try and capture a 40 pip gap up. Not a good risk to reward
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #817
  • Jul 7, 2008 3:38am Jul 7, 2008 3:38am
do u mean yen crosses? or the actually yen..so long yen crosses?

Quoting BillyRayValentine
No prob. By the way JPY is in the money range for shorts right now. Just took one myself but using caution with the SPX at major support.
Fear's for the other guy
  • #818
  • Jul 7, 2008 3:47am Jul 7, 2008 3:47am
Quoting mrhurley1
do u mean yen crosses? or the actually yen..so long yen crosses?
USD/JPY as posted in previous posts, but the trade is unfortunately already on I'm in the money about 10 pips so far......went right up to the 70's
  • #819
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:03am Jul 7, 2008 4:03am
Quoting Iron-man
Gap trading can work out very well when understood. There are also a few add-on rules that I have that seem to reduce risk. Gaps occur all over the place but the only ones I am interested in are the ones that happen on Sunday. Yen crosses are the currencies that offer the best opportunities. My personal favorvite is GBPJPY.

So the way gaps work for those who don't know is this. If price gaps down then a resistance line is formed at the top of the gap and if price gaps up a support line is formed at the bottom of the gap. SO just as in other areas of S&R these are places you can buy and sell from as price usually goes back to "close the gap"

But what I look for is the more speculative venture of will a gap be there on Sunday which means I have to enter the trade late on Friday near market close.
My rule is simple. I only hold sells, NEVER buys. Let me say that again. NEVER buys. Historically sells payoff much better.

What is my signal? I look for a BIG rally on Friday that ends near a resistance line. I go short near the close on Friday and I PAY interest for the negative carry.

If the market opens lower on Sunday you can take the money and run, always wise. You can hold out for more. Initally you will start to lose money as price moves to close the gap. If it fails to do so you are usually in for a big payday. One of the things I do is take the trade on GBPJPY and watch EJ and UJ . If they close their gaps first then there is a good chance that GJ will turn and go lower as will the other xxxJPY crosses. About six weeks back this happened when GJ broke through a tough resistance area in the 208.70 area on Friday in the closing hour of the session. On Sunday it opened 200 pips lower. It then retraced 100 or so of those pips. At that time the EJ and UJ closed their gaps. GJ then proceeded to drop another 400 pips from there.

Now, of course the other question is, OK I go short and on Sunday price goes up, now what? That can happen, that will happen, that has happened. But it has been my experience that price doesn't gap up as high as it gaps down. Usually 40 pips up is a large gap. So you take the trade and Sunday your sell is down 40 or so pips. The fact that the tendency is for price to close the gap is in your favor of closing the trade at or near break even. Then of course you can go long from the resistance area at the bottom of the gap.

I realize this is a bit of a departure from the no brainer trades. My apologies, Billy Ray. I certainly don't want to alter the course of this thread. I like how it has developed.

Interesting gameplan and it corresponds to what I remember from the top of my head, since I'm a keen watcher of the GJ myself.
Might be a nice little side-kick to my main trade activity.
Thanks for your reply.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #820
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:05am Jul 7, 2008 4:05am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
No prob. By the way JPY is in the money range for shorts right now. Just took one myself but using caution with the SPX at major support.

Hi Billy Ray,

Excuse my ignorance but what's SPX ?
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
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