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South Africa - rock RAND roll

  • #41
  • Jun 19, 2008 10:36am Jun 19, 2008 10:36am
Quoting brendonvdh
Thanks for the charts peaches.

The USD/ZAR is retracing nicely after powerful bearish candlestick pattern
Grinding its way down, even after some negative ZAR fundamental news

Any bets on how far it will retrace?
first trade in this pair, but i think it might go down, until
the red stochachstic-line bounces from the purple-line.
might be the 50 % fibo-line, which is also Resistance 3 (7,85).
BUT, its imagination this happens in a straight bearish line,
there maybe 1, 2 days up, before down again.
BUT: there is no bullish pattern by now, which would
sign a change of downtrend.

So:
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  • #42
  • Jun 19, 2008 3:50pm Jun 19, 2008 3:50pm
Nice charts and analysis guys.

I'll put some up here next time as I'm entering a trade again. I didn't take todays short which would've been from 8.0224 with no exit yet. It looks like it is heading to the targets you mentioned as well. Around 7.82/83 area, a 50% fib on the 4HR.

According to some market sentiment being mentioned, another 2 rate hikes are expected in the future, the 2nd one with a 30-40% chance RMB mentions.

The latest account deficit figures were 9% of the GDP with Reuters reporting that Moodys is irking abit so SA's rating is at stake. Gold output is also down y/y in April by 10.1%.

Looks like when it starts to swing around to a long signal, it might be a nice entry for the ride up.
  • #43
  • Jun 23, 2008 4:55pm Jun 23, 2008 4:55pm
swing around just starts, but i´m out.
maybe get in again when this one has topped out.
have a nice day.
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  • #44
  • Jul 3, 2008 3:22pm Jul 3, 2008 3:22pm
The USD/ZAR has continued moving down today all the way to 7.71
allowing me out of my 7.80 short trade at a small profit plus a decent amount of interest earned (after almost 5 weeks)

Fundamentally I think the ECB statement boosted the dollar which sparked a bit of a rally in US stocks
rally in US stocks = good for the ZAR
There is a strong correlation as per the graph I posted a while ago.

So will the rally continue?

I am going to stay out for a while and watch.

There is a lot of negatives for the ZAR that may starting putting pressure so I will be looking to sell ZAR soon.. if we get a bit lower maybe around 7.55/60
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  • #45
  • Jul 3, 2008 3:35pm Jul 3, 2008 3:35pm
technically this might go lower, if dollar weakniss continues.

If green channel is broken, this might reach 7,03, weekly
resistance is at 6,67.

I am out of this pair, for a few weeks, and I forecasted it
technically pretty good

on weekly this is a double top.
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  • #46
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:36pm Jul 8, 2008 3:36pm
I´am dumb. I forecast this one good, and did not trade it.

Following chart shows a 61.8 retracement. The last green daily candle is a bullish engulfing candle, which shows us a trend change to bullish. Todays candle shows us an inverted hammer, so today we have had a bull run, and after this, bears came back und pressed this one down. So the long shadows appears. We also have a hidden bullish divergence on MACD. A break of the
light blue trendline wuold be agood confirmation for getting bullish.

I bite in my table. I trade this one, SL below the last few
shadows low.
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  • #47
  • Jul 9, 2008 3:55am Jul 9, 2008 3:55am
Hi Peaches

I think you have a good trade there.
I have also gone long at 7.68
I hope your SL was not too tight, give it a little room I think this one will go up.

cheers
Brendon
  • #48
  • Jul 9, 2008 6:00am Jul 9, 2008 6:00am
Quoting brendonvdh
Hi Peaches

I think you have a good trade there.
I have also gone long at 7.68
I hope your SL was not too tight, give it a little room I think this one will go up.

cheers
Brendon
no luck on my side, SL hit, i think now this one goes to 7,60, maybe lower.

I ´ll jump in again, if i see a sign of dollar weakness.
  • #49
  • Jul 9, 2008 1:32pm Jul 9, 2008 1:32pm
Hi Peaches

sorry to hear your SL hit. I have a small position so I am going to give it a lot of room. I still belive this one is going back up over 8 and maybe more in the next few weeks. Only downside is that I am now paying the interest to hold the position.

What spread do you get from your broker on the USD/ZAR?

I am using Oanda and get 55 pip spread (during the london market open times)

There is some decent daily fundamental report on the ZAR here:
www . rmb . co . za/web/rmb-online.nsf/Online/48673BC697A803BE4225739F002411A5

keep well
Brendon
  • #50
  • Edited 4:00pm Jul 9, 2008 3:57pm | Edited 4:00pm
Hi brendon,

i use oanda too, spread is gigantic for this exotic. Thank you for the link too, very good information.

If i know something about support and resistance zones and candlestick patterns, this is a MUST trading.

We have a bullish engulfing followed by an inverted hammer, followed by todays hammer. SL below shadow of todays candle (my SL is always to close, i work on it).

Happy trading !




Quoting brendonvdh
Hi Peaches

sorry to hear your SL hit. I have a small position so I am going to give it a lot of room. I still belive this one is going back up over 8 and maybe more in the next few weeks. Only downside is that I am now paying the interest to hold the position.

What spread do you get from your broker on the USD/ZAR?

I am using Oanda and get 55 pip spread (during the london market open times)

There is some decent daily fundamental report on the ZAR here:
www . rmb . co . za/web/rmb-online.nsf/Online/48673BC697A803BE4225739F002411A5

keep well
Brendon
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  • #51
  • Jul 15, 2008 1:58am Jul 15, 2008 1:58am
Time for the rand to tank a bit? The fundamentals have not changed. The squeeze of the longs is almost at an end and we can prepare for a sharp jump towards the 8.50 area.

Dollars are cheap right now so I expect that to be the thrust against the rand. If the euro tanks as well we could see 9.

Anybody else feel the same way.
Timing is everything
  • #52
  • Jul 15, 2008 3:46am Jul 15, 2008 3:46am
Hi Gull

Yes I agree with you, when it breaks the current downtrend it is going to move up fast. I see the EUR/USD has just breached 1.60 again so that will support the USD/ZAR downtrend for now.

I am currently long at 7.68 and have a limit order to add another position @ 7.60.
I have set SL @ 7.42 below May 16 low. TP around 8.20.

Let's hope it moves soon cause paying the interest on a USD/ZAR long starts adding up ...

cheers
Brendon
  • #53
  • Jul 15, 2008 2:41pm Jul 15, 2008 2:41pm
With 2 more rates hikes supposedly already factored in the latest is that the SA reserve bank has been calculating the inflations figures wrongly (go figure). This would mean that the next two rates hikes are now not going to take place. This should and I say again should help with the rand weakness in the weeks to come. Buy the rumor sell the fact.
Timing is everything
  • #54
  • Jul 15, 2008 9:30pm Jul 15, 2008 9:30pm
Hey there guys,

Yeah, on the heatmap the Rand has been sold across the board the past two weeks yet the pair has carried on it's move down, so the USDZAR pair should be in for a nice move up.
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  • #55
  • Jul 16, 2008 4:56am Jul 16, 2008 4:56am
Hi
This is taken from the RMB currency report for today

"risky currencies including the ZAR continue to completely diverge

from the global risk environment. Why is not altogether clear
but the result is that the ZAR is now at 7.65 instead of 8.25!"

So hopefully when the usually strong correlation to risk aversion kicks back in we will see that move.

Till then I just keep paying the interest

I am currently long @7.68 with a limit order to add another position @ 7.60

cheers
Brendon
  • #56
  • Jul 16, 2008 5:58am Jul 16, 2008 5:58am
Watch out carry trades. The risk aversion that is seeing the yen strengthen is spilling over to the zar.
Timing is everything
  • #57
  • Jul 16, 2008 6:13am Jul 16, 2008 6:13am
Yes - JPY and CHF are strengthening
indicating carry trade unwind/risk aversion

So the ZAR should be weakening....

maybe someone should go give it a tap on the shoulder and point it in the right direction.
  • #58
  • Jul 16, 2008 6:46am Jul 16, 2008 6:46am
It moves in African time LOL but it is moving
Timing is everything
  • #59
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:08am Jul 16, 2008 11:08am
hi all,

after i was stopped out 2. time, i just sit and watch this pair.

But my technical charts now tells a different story:

We have stochachstic crossing on the weekly, and macd is going down.
We have a classicle bearish divergence on weekly, too.

On the daily, the green shi-channel is importend, if its broken there might be the fibo expansion-level 161,8 on the downside.

Put this all together with fundamental dollar-weakness (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), and this might go down.

Happy trading all.
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  • #60
  • Jul 16, 2008 11:46am Jul 16, 2008 11:46am
Without it we would not have a market. As today is triple swap day be careful of the closing hour or should I say just after it.
Timing is everything
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