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Daily and Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

  • #21
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:54am Jun 30, 2008 11:54am
goldtc, do you have an opinion on AUDUSD Daily? this one is pretty confusing. What I have is a big corrective bull move and we're currently in C which looks like a diagonal triangle. But I'm not entirely convinced...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_daily.gif Size: 15 KB
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  • #22
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:33am Jul 1, 2008 12:33am
Hi Soso..i wont be able to post AUD or EURO charts for atleast a week. I will be going on vacation tomorrow so i am a bit busy right now. Here is the last for sometime. It is a short term chart showing my expectations.

http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories/1-7-08%20euro.gif
  • #23
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:37am Jul 1, 2008 12:37am
Its 1.5749 now. May drop down more if ISM goes up at 2pm GMT later. I see a rebound to 1.6xx later.



Quoting goldtc
Hi Soso..i wont be able to post AUD or EURO charts for atleast a week. I will be going on vacation tomorrow so i am a bit busy right now. Here is the last for sometime. It is a short term chart showing my expectations.
  • #24
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:40am Jul 1, 2008 12:40am
Quoting goldtc
Hi Soso..i wont be able to post AUD or EURO charts for atleast a week. I will be going on vacation tomorrow so i am a bit busy right now. Here is the last for sometime. It is a short term chart showing my expectations.

http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories/1-7-08%20euro.gif
Hi goldtc, thanks for the update. Enjoy your vacation!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #25
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:48am Jul 1, 2008 12:48am
This is my 4H count, for now I am maintaining my primary count on the last leg up being an abc. Although I am very cautious and know that in order for the pattern to unfold 1.559 needs to break. It is the top of Wave 1 of your count.
So if this is only a correction of an unfinished impulsive leg up I am looking to liquidate half of my position near 1.567 - if it gets there - and tighten my stop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_h4.gif Size: 11 KB
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  • #26
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:52am Jul 1, 2008 12:52am
A SHORT opportunity on USDJPY, if price reaches 106.7 we might complete a corrective abc pattern.
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Click to Enlarge Name: jpy_h4.gif Size: 11 KB
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  • #27
  • Jul 1, 2008 3:02am Jul 1, 2008 3:02am
Quoting sirxl
Its 1.5749 now. May drop down more if ISM goes up at 2pm GMT later. I see a rebound to 1.6xx later.
The Euro decline after i posted the charts was a good bear trap. It peeked below the trendline for a while but held above it by closing above it. 1.5785 right now. Time to go down IMO.
  • #28
  • Jul 1, 2008 3:04am Jul 1, 2008 3:04am
Quoting soso
This is my 4H count, for now I am maintaining my primary count on the last leg up being an abc. Although I am very cautious and know that in order for the pattern to unfold 1.559 needs to break. It is the top of Wave 1 of your count.
So if this is only a correction of an unfinished impulsive leg up I am looking to liquidate half of my position near 1.567 - if it gets there - and tighten my stop.
Your count looks correct IMO. There is a good chance your count might play out. I am still confused whether to count the entire wave up as impulsive or corrective. The market should clear the pattern out in a few days..
  • #29
  • Jul 1, 2008 3:13am Jul 1, 2008 3:13am
Quoting goldtc
The market should clear the pattern out in a few days..
Indeed, the most objective player. For now I hold my shorts until ~1.567. I think we might have a top now on H1, it looks like an expanding triangle that ended into 50% retracemnt of the impulse down. I will scale in short if price breaches the low of the previous H1 bar, 1.575.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #30
  • Jul 1, 2008 3:26am Jul 1, 2008 3:26am
Quoting soso
I think we might have a top now on H1, it looks like an expanding triangle that ended into 50% retracemnt of the impulse down.
or not.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #31
  • Jul 1, 2008 4:42am Jul 1, 2008 4:42am
hello Guys, great stuff here, many thanks.

Any chance to see your quick chart on eur/jpy ? would like to investigate whether correction is ending or last 5 was an impuls in a heavy downtrend?
  • #32
  • Jul 1, 2008 11:12pm Jul 1, 2008 11:12pm
Eur/Usd

Long Term ............... ( Monthly Bar Chart ).........

--------------------------------------------------
http://i27.tinypic.com/33nwwm9.jpg
  • #33
  • Jul 2, 2008 1:35am Jul 2, 2008 1:35am
Ok things look good, we are approaching 106.6 level where a = c and 50% of the move down. If it holds I'll short the first bar that breaks the low of the last bar.
It could also go higher till 62% retracement, depends how this c wave unfolds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 8 KB
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  • #34
  • Jul 2, 2008 1:53am Jul 2, 2008 1:53am
Hi
here's my eurusd count:

http://www.imagefreehost.com/files/0...1224649918.gif
  • #35
  • Jul 2, 2008 2:01am Jul 2, 2008 2:01am
Quoting TheCable
Hi
here's my eurusd count:
That's a nice count TheCable. Very clean! I'm actually bearish on EURUSD right now...my 4h count, we hit the upper side of the channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_h4.gif Size: 13 KB
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  • #36
  • Jul 2, 2008 2:06am Jul 2, 2008 2:06am
The new top,that we made before 1-2 hours could also be seen,as irregular b for second wave from 5/3
  • #37
  • Jul 2, 2008 2:09am Jul 2, 2008 2:09am
Quoting soso
Ok things look good, we are approaching 106.6 level where a = c and 50% of the move down. If it holds I'll short the first bar that breaks the low of the last bar.
It could also go higher till 62% retracement, depends how this c wave unfolds.
I retract back this trade, I have reasons to think that the probaility is low and it could go wrong. I expect USDJPY to go near 110 on July 29. Anyone has a count for the bullish move that started in March?
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  • #38
  • Jul 2, 2008 2:15am Jul 2, 2008 2:15am
This is my long term count. And the reason I retracted that trade is that we could already have finished b.

If we go up to 110 into July 29 I expect a big drop.
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Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 20 KB
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  • #39
  • Jul 2, 2008 2:46am Jul 2, 2008 2:46am
Forgive me traders for changing my mind, again. I'm not a seasoned EWer so... Since the drop from June 2007 was clearly a corrective move I tried to identify this bullish move up as impulsive in the past but didn't succeed, now I looked again and I think there is an impulsive move here. More visible on 4H chart where wave 3 can be split in an impulsive move.

So the move up into 110/July 29 could be counted as impulsive as in attached chart. The trick is when this 4th wave would finish. I would love the opinion of other EWers on this.
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Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #40
  • Jul 2, 2008 6:55am Jul 2, 2008 6:55am
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