Daily and Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

Hi,

I will be posting my Elliott Wave analysis on a daily basis. However i do not recommend this thread for trading purpose. Forex market involved significant risk.
I will post analysis on a daily basis for Euro, Crude oil(weekly only), Gold and silver.

DYODD

Happy Trading

Here is the first analysis on Euro. I prepared this earlier today.

 

1. Technical Analysis:

Spot Euro is down in 5 waves and should begin wave c or wave iii decline directed to 1.5417(atleast). MACD giving bearish divergence and price should validate that.

 

1. Strategy:

1. Short at 1.5550~1.5560
2. Stops > 1.5585
3. Target 1.5417
4. Use trail Stops

1. Trail stops:

1. Move stops to 1.5545 on break below 1.5520
2. Move stops to 1.5525 on break below 1.5500
3. Move stops to 1.5500 on break below 1.5475
4. Move stops to 1.5475 on break below 1.5450

1. Alternative Strategy:

1. Long on break above 1.5585
2. Stops < 1.5570
3. Target 1.5650

1. Risk Management:

Risk reward ratio is favourable


Please note that the above article shows how i will trade this market. It is not recommended for trading. If you do so it will be at your own risk.
http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories/20-6-08%20euro.gif

Outlook on gold

 

1. Technical Analysis:

Spot Gold is down in 5 waves and the current recovery could either be wave b or wave ii recovery. MACD is giving bearish divergence and price has to validate it. There is a possibility of decline to 882 unless 909 is clearly broken above

 

1. Strategy:

1. Short at 903
2. Stops > 909
3. Target 882
4. Use trail Stops

1. Trail stops:

1. Move stops to 903 on break below 900
2. Move stops to 900 on break below 896
3. Move stops to 897 on break below 892
4. Move stops to 892 on break below 887

1. Alternative Strategy:

1. Long on break above 909
2. Stops < 907
3. Target 915

1. Risk Management:

Risk reward ratio is favourable

NOT RECOMMENDED FOR TRADING PURPOSE. THE ABOVE STRATEGIES SHOW HOW I WILL TRADE THE MARKETS.

http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories/20-6-08%20gold.gif

There is a small error in my EuroUsd chart. It is 'b or 2' and not 'a or 2'

According to Fib relationship Euro and precious metals will turn down to challenge the Lows either fon 25th or 26th. Those dates are important turn dates.

JMVHO

Alternative strategy in play. Looking for an accelerated rally to 1.5700

Here is the chart

http://goldtc.com/images/stories/20-6-08%20euro2.gif

Here is my Medium Term outlook in euro

Bullish above 1.5466. Entries set at 1.5580 and 1.5500. Targeting 1.57 and 1.5835

http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories...8%20euromt.gif

Euro early gap up. Was closed in the next hour. Looks like it has the potential to hit my entry levels. 1.5605 right now..

http://goldtc.com/images/stories/25-6-08%20euromt.gif

Right on this time. Hit my entry point earlier today at 1.5660. Up from there. Clearing half at 1.5740~1.5750.

1. Technical Analysis:

Spot Euro is down in 5 waves in 1 hour chart. We are cautious of a deeper retracement or a trend reversal. According to our count Euro should head down from 1.5750~1.5760. Euro has broken below a rising wedge pattern as well. Caution

http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories/27-6-08%20euro.gif

This is the Short Term outlook

Bearish against 1.5843. Target would below 1.5700.

http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories/30-6-08%20euro.gif

This is the Medium Term outlook. Bullish against 1.5466. Target would be 1.6000. Ideal entry points is the black line.

http://www.goldtc.com/images/stories...0euro%20mt.gif

goldtc thanks for posting that H1 chart. It is a bit different than mine but the result is dramatically different in that is being quite bullish. I was counting this move up as an abc, your count is valid too. Either way a bearish move should unfold now. Following your analysis 1.5590 is a key level now.

P.S. btw are comments/charts ok in this thread or would you like to keep it for yourself?

Thanks,
-soso

The a-b-c upmove is my alternative count. The reason that a-b-c up is my alternative count is because of strong underlying fundamentals. ECB is ecpected to hike rates in the coming week while the NFP is expected to dissapoint the dollar bulls. I will keep an eye on both side. I always welcome comments. I am glad that someone has finally commented on my thread. I want more comments.

PS- If you notice there is a 5 down in 5 minutes chart- confirmation that corrective decline has begun.

Well that's my main count and is derived out of technicals only. Don't have time right now but will post a chart later, mainly my long term Daily view and why I think the Daily correction/sideways should continue for at least 1-2 months.

That's a problem with EW threads, they either take off or are completely ignored. I started one of my own but been lazy to update it . Will post here from time to time if you don't mind of course

I would be glad if you can contribute here. Thanks for being here soso.
My oil count is bullish hence bullish on Euro right now.

goldtc this is my long term view.

I think we are in a big Wave IV but I don't think we are going to finish it soon. There are a couple of time factors (see chart) that make me very cautious taking a long term bull trade at this moment.
For now the pattern looks like the Wave 4 of the previous minor trend although shorter in time which says something about the completion of Wave IV.
I am not sure yet how this WIV will unfold but I don't think is going to be a triangle and I don't think it will be completed soon.

I have 3 possible dates when WIV will complete (if I'm not wrong and the wave is finished much earlier): July 21, August 18 and September 26.

Would love to see your long term outlook on euro.

Soso,

Wave II did not even correct 38.2% according to your. For your down wave to be called wave II it is neccesary that either wave A or entire wave II corrects 38.2%.

JMVHO...I will post my LT charts soon..

Yes I am well aware of the guideline that Wave II retraces the most, usually more than 50% of Wave I. Previously I had Wave II where green wave a is on the chart but that was completely out of proportion, in both price and time.
The current alternative looks the best to me, but I am open to any alternative that looks better.