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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #4,161
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:28am Jun 29, 2008 9:28am
See this Daily chart:
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbp0629807.gif Size: 12 KB
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  • #4,162
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:43am Jun 29, 2008 9:43am
Quoting Bobokus
You want to trade with the fib levels in the same manner, the price channel just gives you a visual aid in the pairs direction and confirms your trades when you see the channel broken from as well, since it will indicate a directional change or break from the current trending patterns. A break of the channel is the same as with a fib level...a candle opening outside of it.
So i think Bo want to point out that price have broke the channel, so a new trend might have show up, it might be a major trend continuity without to many correction. But let`s bet we might retest some lower level befor it`s shoot up! Dont forget Goodthings stats!
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  • #4,163
  • Jun 29, 2008 10:33am Jun 29, 2008 10:33am
Quoting GreatYves
So i think Bo want to point out that price have broke the channel, so a new trend might have show up, it might be a major trend continuity without to many correction. But let`s bet we might retest some lower level befor it`s shoot up! Dont forget Goodthings stats!
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From the 1 hour I would only go back as far as the last low we made this week, that way we can see if we get retracement from fridays move a break of the fridays Intraday levels will also be a break of the current trending pattern and signal some deeper correction into this move up from this week.
And yes if you pull an LRC from last fridays through this last monday once price broke the top level from that is was an indication that we could be seeing it reverse long so you move your LRC up now and begin pulling it up from Mondays low to the last candle of tuesday and leave until price breaks from that, once it does you only pull the LRC up to the last candle of the day that price broken from it and if it continues to break the top resistance line the strength of the move signals continuation. Channels work very siilar to trend lines. They are not perfect but they do offer some assistance.
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  • #4,164
  • Edited 11:29am Jun 29, 2008 11:11am | Edited 11:29am
I have a question on the linnear regression....Is this right its very similar to fibbs...You can place a linnear regression channel from a high and a low like we place our intraday fibb. Or place it from the bigger high and low just like we place are longer term fibbs.
And what i have to do is place the bigger one with the linnear regression channel since the real purpose is to see when the most recent trend is and when it reverses, also if a bigger one reverses it can be prof that price is respoding to a larger timeframe fibb, so in reality what I am measuring with the linnear regression channel Is from A to B or B to C looking at it from a larger time frame since our trend in the 1 hour chart is based on the larger movements. I know it would not be good to place it from the the low and the high of the previous day since it would be to vertical and wont be as powerful and i could get cought in fake reversal.In my picture below are examples of linnear regression channels from a low to a high and this are also spots that i would consider placing my swing fibb if I was in a trade. The last one is the one that i believe is right and thats the one that shows me the current trend and i would keep on pulling to the highest and that would show me the trend is still strong in that direction though is my last regression channel if it brakes to the bearish side it would be a good probability of a reversal because of the angle it has since its powerful.You can also measure the movements down but they are to vertical and had no continuation to is since price reacted the bigger fibb swings. So what i really believe is I have to measure with the linnear regression channel is the last leg in price. Let me know if this is right or I am thinking to much and I am wrong.

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  • #4,165
  • Jun 29, 2008 11:40am Jun 29, 2008 11:40am
Quoting Shermenator
I have a question on the linnear regression....Is this right its very similar to fibbs...You can place a linnear regression channel from a high and a low like we place our intraday fibb. Or place it from the bigger high and low just like we place are longer term fibbs.
And what i have to do is place the bigger one with the linnear regression channel since the real purpose is to see when the most recent trend is and when it reverses, also if a bigger one reverses it can be prof that price is respoding to a larger timeframe fibb, so in reality what I am measuring with the linnear regression channel Is from A to B or B to C looking at it from a larger time frame since our trend in the 1 hour chart is based on the larger movements. I know it would not be good to place it from the the low and the high of the previous day since it would be to vertical and wont be as powerful and i could get cought in fake reversal.In my picture below are examples of linnear regression channels from a low to a high and this are also spots that i would consider placing my swing fibb if I was in a trade. The last one is the one that i believe is right and thats the one that shows me the current trend and i would keep on pulling to the highest and that would show me the trend is still strong in that direction though is my last regression channel if it brakes to the bearish side it would be a good probability of a reversal because of the angle it has since its powerful.You can also measure the movements down but they are to vertical and had no continuation to is since price reacted the bigger fibb swings. So what i really believe is I have to measure with the linnear regression channel is the last leg in price. Let me know if this is right or I am thinking to much and I am wrong.

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if we want to find a indicator which is very similar to the fib, the fib fans is a very good candidate. it can provide very good support and resistance, use it with fib .
I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #4,166
  • Jun 29, 2008 12:00pm Jun 29, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting Shermenator
I have a question on the linnear regression....Is this right its very similar to fibbs...You can place a linnear regression channel from a high and a low like we place our intraday fibb. Or place it from the bigger high and low just like we place are longer term fibbs.
And what i have to do is place the bigger one with the linnear regression channel since the real purpose is to see when the most recent trend is and when it reverses, also if a bigger one reverses it can be prof that price is respoding to a larger timeframe fibb, so in reality what I am measuring with the linnear regression channel Is from A to B or B to C looking at it from a larger time frame since our trend in the 1 hour chart is based on the larger movements. I know it would not be good to place it from the the low and the high of the previous day since it would be to vertical and wont be as powerful and i could get cought in fake reversal.In my picture below are examples of linnear regression channels from a low to a high and this are also spots that i would consider placing my swing fibb if I was in a trade. The last one is the one that i believe is right and thats the one that shows me the current trend and i would keep on pulling to the highest and that would show me the trend is still strong in that direction though is my last regression channel if it brakes to the bearish side it would be a good probability of a reversal because of the angle it has since its powerful.You can also measure the movements down but they are to vertical and had no continuation to is since price reacted the bigger fibb swings. So what i really believe is I have to measure with the linnear regression channel is the last leg in price. Let me know if this is right or I am thinking to much and I am wrong.

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You can pull them like that if you like but I dont use them that way.
  • #4,167
  • Jun 29, 2008 12:02pm Jun 29, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting ztdep
if we want to find a indicator which is very similar to the fib, the fib fans is a very good candidate. it can provide very good support and resistance, use it with fib .
Ive used them as well but a good trend line will get the same job accomplished.
  • #4,168
  • Jun 29, 2008 1:26pm Jun 29, 2008 1:26pm
Bo what do you think of a short on eur/yen?
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  • #4,169
  • Jun 29, 2008 2:16pm Jun 29, 2008 2:16pm
Quoting GreatYves
Bo what do you think of a short on eur/yen?

Personally Im staying away from the yen crosses with the USD/Yen trending down, the Euro and Cable trending up. They could be pretty choppy.
  • #4,170
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:43pm Jun 29, 2008 6:43pm
Here is a couple of examples of how i think is that you would place the LGC.
Please confirm me if this is right BO.

First Chart USD/JPY
The Arrows are the location of the Points that i place the LGC

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Second chart USD/CHF

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Third EUR/USD

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Last AUD/USD Please take a look at this one is seems to be in a huge trend or i placed it wrong lol.

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  • #4,171
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:53pm Jun 29, 2008 6:53pm
Quoting Shermenator
Here is a couple of examples of how i think is that you would place the LGC.
Please confirm me if this is right BO.

First Chart USD/JPY
The Arrows are the location of the Points that i place the LGC

Attachment

Second chart USD/CHF

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Third EUR/USD

Attachment

Last AUD/USD Please take a look at this one is seems to be in a huge trend or i placed it wrong lol.

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They all look ok to me, just the AUD I dont keep a chart on and it looks like thats more of what you would get from a 4hour chart once you start getting that long with it, for now just go from the low point of last week as an anchor point. And yes the AUD looks like it has been trending in that channel that long.
  • #4,172
  • Jun 29, 2008 10:34pm Jun 29, 2008 10:34pm
I found this chart by Goodthings with his retracement probabilities on the intraday. I don`t know if these figure are true, or still hold the road but if they are it is solid gold.
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And the post that come with it::: Here is the daily fib retracements for the gbpusd and the percentage of times it retraces to these levels. These percentages are based on the high of the low for the day which now it looks like for today the high is 2.0378 and the low is 2.0281. My daily candle does not end until 6pm eastern time USA. These probabilites have a 7 pip tolerance. For instance today if highs and lows hold it has retraced to 2.0347 and the 38.2 fib is 2.0341. I call that a hit but also wait to see how the next day trades and see if it goes lower to the 50 fib or 61.8 fib
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  • #4,173
  • Jun 30, 2008 12:48am Jun 30, 2008 12:48am
I love Fibonacci...!!!!
Thanks Bobokus...
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  • #4,174
  • Edited 6:57am Jun 30, 2008 6:41am | Edited 6:57am
I won`t pull up any charts.. Earlier, Tuesday target had happen at 9966, and then friday bottom at 9800 to 9966 had it`s 38.2 retracement at 9899 just happened, i took long already at the first bounce at 9908 and my target is 2017, was i too fast? Should i have waited for candle to close over the 38.2?
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  • #4,175
  • Jun 30, 2008 6:57am Jun 30, 2008 6:57am
Quoting GreatYves
I won`t pull up any charts.. Earlier, Tuesday target had happen at 9966, and then friday bottom at 9800 to 9966 had it`s 38.2 retracement at 9899 just happen, i took long already at the first bounce at 9908 and my target is 2017, was i too fast? Sould i have waited for candle to close over the 38.2?

Its more risky to trade off the levels themselves, but its not wrong. Entering from the levels can get you in at better prices as long as price does bounce or get rejected from those levels, the problem is if price action doesnt agree and by that I mean in the next consecutive candles do they continue in the bounce or rejection or does price continue to make lower lows or higher highs from those points. Entering off the levels, just pay attention to price action from this point as new candles are formed and completed.
A break from The previous Intraday short level would not be a good sign either.
  • #4,176
  • Jun 30, 2008 7:03am Jun 30, 2008 7:03am
Bo does this swing have to anything with it stopping it. I have been Looking at this swing since Friday and have been afraid of taking brakes of highs. Let me know what you think and what Importance you give to it...

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  • #4,177
  • Jun 30, 2008 7:05am Jun 30, 2008 7:05am
Quoting Bobokus
Its more risky to trade off the levels themselves, but its not wrong. Entering from the levels can get you in at better prices as long as price does bounce or get rejected from those levels, the problem is if price action doesnt agree and by that I mean in the next consecutive candles do they continue in the bounce or rejection or does price continue to make lower lows or higher highs from those points. Entering off the levels, just pay attention to price action from this point as new candles are formed and completed.
Obviously, candle have just close over, momentum is still down but the support is holding. I placed my stop 10 pips under the 68.2 at 9855. Time for a shower.
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  • #4,178
  • Jun 30, 2008 7:10am Jun 30, 2008 7:10am
Quoting Shermenator
Bo does this swing have to anything with it stopping it. I have been Looking at this swing since Friday and have been afraid of taking brakes of highs. Let me know what you think and what Importance you give to it...

Attachment
Once the target range of that has been met it doesnt serve any purpose.
New waveforms have unfolded and the market has changed in the 1 hour timeframe from those since then.
  • #4,179
  • Jun 30, 2008 7:12am Jun 30, 2008 7:12am
Quoting GreatYves
Obviously, candle have just close over, momentum is still down but the support is holding. I placed my stop 10 pips under the 68.2 at 9855. Time for a shower.
As long as support contiues to hold from fridays Intraday youll be ok. For fridays Intraday I would use the low of friday to the high of today, since this is the first true retracement since the low on friday.
  • #4,180
  • Jun 30, 2008 7:16am Jun 30, 2008 7:16am
Quoting Bobokus
As long as support contiues to hold from fridays Intraday youll be ok. For fridays Intraday I would use the low of friday to the high of today, since this is the first true retracement since the low on friday.
Thanks for reading my mind. I wanted to ask..
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