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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,781
  • Jun 27, 2008 7:51am Jun 27, 2008 7:51am
Quoting petonjicn
Hi everyone. I am studding this thread for a whil now, and I decided to make my first live trade. I got long on UC, price is near support on daily, and MACD give a VB signal. I entered only one 0.01 micro lot, and my target is 61.8 retracement of previous two candles( near 8EMA). Is this in accordance with the rules? I know that this is countertrend trade, but I juist want to get a feel for it, because it is different when your money is on the line...
As I see, the bar with VT is not closed. Before close you don't have a signal on the MACD.
  • #15,782
  • Jun 27, 2008 7:57am Jun 27, 2008 7:57am
You are right Happy68
I didn't bother to look for the bar completion...
Anyway, closed the deal with +12..
Thank you for your fast reply...
  • #15,783
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:21am Jun 27, 2008 8:21am
Quoting Happy68
The question is very important. When you want to brake TL, you have to know, what is this TL. I explaine whit these 2 TCs:

1. TC - Phillip's trade. There was a TC and TL. Both support action "buy", because: The TC is near 0 - that means, the volatility is low, the movement beginns. The TL - this TL is necline of the H&S. That was the idea of Phillip. Above this line there where no resistances.

2. TC - your idea. OK. What do we have? TC is on 45 - high volatility, may be the movement is over (may be, nowbody knows). If you look at the chart, that is the place where the nice movements end. TL - what TL is that? It is the upper line of the channel, rising channel. When we have rising channel, it breaks usualy on the down side. The upper side is possibility for better entry. What do we have above our TL - another TL, more stronger.

And in the end. It is not visibible here, but by the 1. TC the price was near 21 ema. By the 2. TC is far away. The Price usualy goes in certain boundary from the central tendency, from the trend. Our trend is the 21 ema.

I hope, that helps you to understand the difference.
thanks now i remember that long time ago in philip pdf mention similar thing when macd change color to red although the price is still up and then it give TC, there is no real pullback in this case. so according to rule that price need to pullback 21 (speed of market) before i can enter according to macd tc CMIIW.
  • #15,784
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:36am Jun 27, 2008 8:36am
Quoting poplar
thanks now i remember that long time ago in philip pdf mention similar thing when macd change color to red although the price is still up and then it give TC, there is no real pullback in this case. so according to rule that price need to pullback 21 (speed of market) before i can enter according to macd tc CMIIW.
I don't know how Phillpip esplance that. It is just my trading experience.

  • #15,785
  • Jun 27, 2008 9:23am Jun 27, 2008 9:23am
Quoting svlad1983
I took short on EUR/USD also last night, put TP @ 1.5660... you think will hit it?
well in case of countertrend trades i use 8ema as TP1 ONLY. Countertrend with RB or RT MACD pattern is very risky, cos it can easily switch to TC.I have done some backtesting (few ) countertrends and 8ema seems to me safe.After 8 ema is reached i move SL to entry price or to BE (depends on price action) to stay on the trade.Thing i like the most on countertrend trades is that it can turn to trend reversal, so many pips on way to collect.Sure you must be careful.
  • #15,786
  • Jun 27, 2008 9:35am Jun 27, 2008 9:35am
have forgotten - always check this master - R:R ratio. If it`s not above 1, miss the trade. I have been burned considering this ratio not important.
  • #15,787
  • Jun 27, 2008 9:36am Jun 27, 2008 9:36am
I think over the past 2 days, there were very nice CT trade on both Eur and Gbp.

EUR/USD

Type............DEAL
Summary....Closing trades
Date............26/06/08
Market........Spot FX (mini) EUR/USD
Opening.....15648.6
Ccy.............USD
Size........... - 20
Closing......15630
P/L.............$372
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur01.jpg Size: 118 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur02.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #15,788
  • Jun 27, 2008 9:40am Jun 27, 2008 9:40am
GBP/USD

Type............DEAL
Summary....Closing trades
Date............27/06/08
Market........Spot FX (mini) GBP/USD
Opening.....19866.6
Ccy.............USD
Size........... - 20
Closing......19839.3
P/L.............$546



Questions:
Does my analysis sounds correct?
Both trade were using DEMO account, not with real money emotional trades yet.

Anyone of you guys took the same trade?
I find hard to find good TC trade...

Any tips on that issue?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp01.jpg Size: 142 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp02.jpg Size: 142 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp03.jpg Size: 137 KB
  • #15,789
  • Jun 27, 2008 12:26pm Jun 27, 2008 12:26pm
I took the TC this morning before work @9886 took profit @ 9909- +23 pips

My question is was this a valid TC? It appeared so to me, but no one was discussing it. Any reasons I shouldn't have taken it? My only reservations were that on the daily chart price was bumping the 200sma. Was this too high a risk because of the strong overhead resistance on the daily? Thanks for your thoughts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008-GBP.png Size: 27 KB
  • #15,790
  • Jun 27, 2008 10:14pm Jun 27, 2008 10:14pm
Quoting deepsouth
I took the TC this morning before work @9886 took profit @ 9909- +23 pips

My question is was this a valid TC? It appeared so to me, but no one was discussing it. Any reasons I shouldn't have taken it? My only reservations were that on the daily chart price was bumping the 200sma. Was this too high a risk because of the strong overhead resistance on the daily? Thanks for your thoughts.
i have similar situation in eur/usd,
just my newbie comment my chart is look diferent from u, if i look your chart my concern is :
1. that resistance up there that tail2
2. then like Happy68 said that macd already in 45 so it already up very much.

but i like that tail to 8, maybe if i enter i will enter on retracement.

in my chart i'm not enter because that candle red before (news i think) with up and down tail. and next green candle with up tail.

anyone expert now how to handle this situation what sign to look to increase my succes rate if i want to enter? (sory bad english)
1. tc happen in 45 macd
2. there is resistance trendline and tail resistance.
3. candle TC close green with some tail in upper candle like my chart.
4. bounced from 8 after long time up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my system.png Size: 15 KB
  • #15,791
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:34am Jun 28, 2008 8:34am
oh boy oh boy.... 3 days ladies and gentleman, and still lots to learn to understand Phill tips.

Thank you phill, made me a little headache here,
but NO PAIN NO GAIN....!!!!

Need to read all the files i've download especially the 13 lessons. BIG THANK YOU TO PHILLIPS

Will catch you all guys soon.

Happy Trading to you all, Next Week Must Be A Green Week For All Of Us.

See you...
one more
once again
THANK YOU......
  • #15,792
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:52am Jun 29, 2008 9:52am
Quoting sonicdeejay
U have a short on E/U??

sonic
Hi sonic,

I am reviewing my post about shorting E/U on Friday.MACD was showing red all the time.Before closing candle it changed to green and i didnīt notice that, so this trade should not be taken (beginner mistake).Trade finished (19+2)/2=10,5 pips.

copino
  • #15,793
  • Jun 29, 2008 10:09am Jun 29, 2008 10:09am
I think that anyone following this thread do not enter a trade last 8 hours before market close of every Friday?Am I right?
Thank you
  • #15,794
  • Jun 29, 2008 10:35am Jun 29, 2008 10:35am
Quoting fena74
I think that anyone following this thread do not enter a trade last 8 hours before market close of every Friday?Am I right?
Thank you
It was 00:00 GMT.But why not ? Whatīs wrong about friday ? Am I missing something ?
  • #15,795
  • Jun 29, 2008 12:57pm Jun 29, 2008 12:57pm
Hi everyone!
I'll be starting to post my analysis later on
It's been awhile since my last post months ago. I was appointed to be the head of a sport event in college, consequently, I decided not to trade in April & May.
Started to trade again at the end of last month, however, didn't post anything to the thread until I stick to the rhytm again. A good month for me, so I think I'm ready to get back here.
Let's Rock On!
  • #15,796
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:27pm Jun 29, 2008 6:27pm
Quoting Copino
It was 00:00 GMT.But why not ? Whatīs wrong about friday ? Am I missing something ?
Friday tends to be a day where the market will slow down after the week would've been quite hectic; i.e. low/medium volatility.
"The trend is your friend, until the end."
  • #15,797
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:22pm Jun 29, 2008 9:22pm
Here is the written wrap up for post 15746
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Phillipspost15746.doc   28 KB | 642 downloads
  • #15,798
  • Jun 29, 2008 11:27pm Jun 29, 2008 11:27pm
Hi just a question about the line levels - the MACD levels are different for each pair and each TF. Is there anywhere in the thread that lists the different level setting (15, 30 , 45) for the different pairs and Time frames

cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #15,799
  • Jun 30, 2008 1:15am Jun 30, 2008 1:15am
Quoting hijackxx
Hi everyone!
I'll be starting to post my analysis later on
It's been awhile since my last post months ago. I was appointed to be the head of a sport event in college, consequently, I decided not to trade in April & May.
Started to trade again at the end of last month, however, didn't post anything to the thread until I stick to the rhytm again. A good month for me, so I think I'm ready to get back here.
Let's Rock On!
welcome back
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,800
  • Jun 30, 2008 1:48am Jun 30, 2008 1:48am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hi just a question about the line levels - the MACD levels are different for each pair and each TF. Is there anywhere in the thread that lists the different level setting (15, 30 , 45) for the different pairs and Time frames

cheers
I don't remember where to dicuss this thing, but the level setting is just used as consult, to determine whether the TC is exausted or a good CT, and experience can tell you the answer, it is definitely not often used.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
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