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5Min Intraday System

  • #4,581
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:59am Jun 27, 2008 4:59am
Looking at the chart and being serious with myself I have to say this: I got true buy signals at the close of the following candles, 8.25 8.50 9.10 9.30 . If I traded on all these signals I would have made a few pips on each trade if my goal was to make a quick few pips from scalping. I would never have known which of these candles would have been the trend reversal candle unless I took an extra risk by waiting and let the trade go to stop loss level. That would of course be foolish and I would have lost a lot of money. My question than is, would it be worth to take all the above trades for a quick few pips in scalping? If you add all the available pips for the 4 signals i got, I would have made more than 10 pips. I think that although the risk is high, if you exit on the next candle you have a good chance of making a profit but on the other hand as it happened today I would have missed much better trades on other pairs. What do you think about this?
  • #4,582
  • Jun 27, 2008 5:11am Jun 27, 2008 5:11am
Quoting On the Spot
Looking at the chart and being serious with myself I have to say this: I got true buy signals at the close of the following candles, 8.25 8.50 9.10 9.30 . If I traded on all these signals I would have made a few pips on each trade if my goal was to make a quick few pips from scalping. I would never have known which of these candles would have been the trend reversal candle unless I took an extra risk by waiting and let the trade go to stop loss level. That would of course be foolish and I would have lost a lot of money. My question than is, would it be worth to take all the above trades for a quick few pips in scalping? If you add all the available pips for the 4 signals i got, I would have made more than 10 pips. I think that although the risk is high, if you exit on the next candle you have a good chance of making a profit but on the other hand as it happened today I would have missed much better trades on other pairs. What do you think about this?

I thought the name of the game was "high-probability". From what I've seen, mate, "Counter-Trend" just ain't high-probability. Stay away from them. Heed Golfer's experiences. They're just not worth it, man.

Cheers
  • #4,583
  • Jun 27, 2008 5:29am Jun 27, 2008 5:29am
Golfer I understand what you say and there is much evidence that you are right and that I'm wrong. I must prove to myself that I am wrong and the only way I can achieve this is by testing my ct system. I will do ct trading as a second option during the month of July, if the overall result is negative I will finish with ct trading, if the overall result is positive, I will keep it as a second option of trading forex.

Quoting Golfer

I also tried some counter trend trading but got burned severely. That is where I lost the majority of my mini account.


I also use my profits from the good trades to play around and test other set-ups such as CT trading. But now I am finished with CT trading on the five minutes system - it just doesn't work for me.

  • #4,584
  • Jun 27, 2008 6:27am Jun 27, 2008 6:27am
Quoting On the Spot
Golfer I understand what you say and there is much evidence that you are right and that I'm wrong. I must prove to myself that I am wrong and the only way I can achieve this is by testing my ct system. I will do ct trading as a second option during the month of July, if the overall result is negative I will finish with ct trading, if the overall result is positive, I will keep it as a second option of trading forex.
You'll never hear my say that I am right and you are wrong. In my opinion there is no such thing than rigth or wrong in forex trading. It is all about personal style and personal rules. Rules - if it works for you and if you trade against your rules, then it is wrong. If I trade against my rules which is currently working for me, then it is wrong.

All I am saying is that CT trading is not me - just giving you my opinion and experience. I am sure there are many people trading the CT very successful.

Hopefully you can master the CT trading.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,585
  • Jun 27, 2008 7:04am Jun 27, 2008 7:04am
Hi Golfer

Some considerations and calculations. (The way I prefer to learn)

If I would have traded the USD/JPY pair from 6 to 11GMT I would have obtained the following results: Trading CT following weak and strong long signals given by my system with 10 pt stop loss = +5pt approx. CT trading following only the strong long signals = +20 pips approx. I must point out that the first weak long signal came at the close of the 8.15 gmt candle (the trade that cost me 15 pt) The strong long signals start at the close of the 8.25 gmt candle. Now if you look at the chart you will notice that the strong long signal that I got corresponds somehow to the nearing end of the 2nd wave of the downtrend and the following test to the 50 sma. This may not be of any evidence to you but it has shown me that the first strong long ct signal that I got was a valid one for a quick scalp. If I had traded in agreement with the dominant trend (short term), I would have got the first strong short signal at the close of the 6 gmt candle and the next one at the close of the 7.20 gmt candle. All the following short signals (weak one's) would have come after 8.35 gmt. After 8.35 means after the 1st strong long signal that I got at the close of the 8.25 gmt candle. The profit for the trend following trades would have been approx + 70 pips (strong short signals). Trading the weaker short signals would have given me anything between 0 and - 5 pips. Conclusion, trading only the strong short signals would have made approx + 70 pips profit, trading only the strong buy signals would have given me + 20 pips approx. Trading both strong short signals and strong long signals would have given me approx 90 pips. To be honest the ideal would not have been trading both strong short and strong long signals. The ideal would have been to trade the strong short signals and than move on to another pair and look for strong short or long signals that are in agreement with the dominant trend. My problem is that I don't have yet the experience to follow more than 2 pairs at the same time and even with 2 I struggle. I woke up this morning and I saw that the 2 strong short signals on the USD/JPy pair were already gone and I was somehow lazy to look into other charts and pairs. I therefore sticked with the USD/JPY pair and traded the first and only weak long signal and got hit. I than traded the first strong long signal at the close of the 8.25 gmt candle and got 5 pips back and than I traded at the close of the 9.10 candle were the trade started to go well but i didn't take the few pips that were offered to me and closed at -5 pips stop loss. I hope all this makes any sense to you.


Quoting Golfer
You'll never hear my say that I am right and you are wrong. In my opinion there is no such thing than rigth or wrong in forex trading. It is all about personal style and personal rules. Rules - if it works for you and if you trade against your rules, then it is wrong. If I trade against my rules which is currently working for me, then it is wrong.

All I am saying is that CT trading is not me - just giving you my opinion and experience. I am sure there are many people trading the CT very successful.

Hopefully you can master the CT trading.
  • #4,586
  • Jun 27, 2008 7:19am Jun 27, 2008 7:19am
Ive been trying to interpret the price pattern of the pound and I have an hypothesis, the 4 hour chart gave a nice bull pattern in my broker time, also im noticing a posibility of a flag in the 5 min chart. It would be good to have some feedback on it, maybe I can learn about this particular price movement.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 27jun08gbpusdailypatterunknown4hours.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #4,587
  • Jun 27, 2008 7:28am Jun 27, 2008 7:28am
Sorry, I missed an important part of the puzzle. 5 min posible Bear crown forming and 4 hour possible channel working as resistance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 27jun08gbpusdailypatterunknown.jpg Size: 124 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 27jun08gbpusdailypatterunknown4hourschannel.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #4,588
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:15am Jun 27, 2008 8:15am
Here is a set up i was tempted to take on Euro but skipped it because everything was not in order. Mentioned it on Skype as well.
It was a nice pull back in the zone,
Resistance on the trendline
Macd gave a beautifull smooth TC
BUT
No power bar/ candle
21 Ema still above the zero line on MACD.
Now chances are that the price still might go down But the question is am i Willing to TRY AND SEE what happens. or let it go.
I let this one go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro skipped.jpg Size: 176 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,589
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:46am Jun 27, 2008 8:46am
On the spot i am a newbie and deal with the same attraction. I have isolated why I find them attractive. A winning " counter trade " to me signal I am " more right" or smarter then the average bear. The desire to be "right"is very strong from years of conditioning. I am slowly accepting the fact that no one especially the market cares if i am wrong or right.
So accepting that being right or the need to be right has not +EV ( expected value) is the mind set i MUST adapt in order to be a successful trader.
You may want to give that notion some thought.
Historically i gambled a lot sport cards casino ..... and one friend asked me why i love to gamble and my answer was simple
i love being right and gambling pays those who are "right"

So now my mission is to just line up edges and take action on situations where i see the odds are in my favor and let the result happen....
I am thinking of starting Counter Trader Anonymous
have a day On the spot



Quoting On the Spot
Looking at the chart and being serious with myself I have to say this: I got true buy signals at the close of the following candles, 8.25 8.50 9.10 9.30 . If I traded on all these signals I would have made a few pips on each trade if my goal was to make a quick few pips from scalping. I would never have known which of these candles would have been the trend reversal candle unless I took an extra risk by waiting and let the trade go to stop loss level. That would of course be foolish and I would have lost a lot of money. My question than is, would it be worth to take all the above trades for a quick few pips in scalping? If you add all the available pips for the 4 signals i got, I would have made more than 10 pips. I think that although the risk is high, if you exit on the next candle you have a good chance of making a profit but on the other hand as it happened today I would have missed much better trades on other pairs. What do you think about this?
  • #4,590
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:55am Jun 27, 2008 8:55am
Quoting scottyd14
So now my mission is to just line up edges and take action on situations where i see the odds are in my favor and let the result happen....
I am thinking of starting Counter Trader Anonymous
Very Well SAid. . Been there got burned. now staying away. and your last comment just cracked me up .... Nice to read post that keeps one on track. Thankyou.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,591
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:59am Jun 27, 2008 8:59am
Look what happen to the trade i skipped .
Price went back up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro skipped part 2.jpg Size: 174 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,592
  • Edited 9:13am Jun 27, 2008 9:07am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting MxPips
Ive been trying to interpret the price pattern of the pound and I have an hypothesis, the 4 hour chart gave a nice bull pattern in my broker time, also im noticing a posibility of a flag in the 5 min chart. It would be good to have some feedback on it, maybe I can learn about this particular price movement.
A, now you start to talk my "language". Try to identify price patterns and movements - also over a longer period of time. Great, I like it. It is al about market rhythm. Even to be found on the 5min chart but not so clear as on the 4h. But one can use the rhythm on the 4h as a guide for trading the 5min system.

Welcome to the club!!!!
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,593
  • Jun 27, 2008 9:11am Jun 27, 2008 9:11am
Quoting BIL2205
Here is a set up i was tempted to take on Euro but skipped it because everything was not in order. Mentioned it on Skype as well.
It was a nice pull back in the zone,
Resistance on the trendline
Macd gave a beautifull smooth TC
BUT
No power bar/ candle
21 Ema still above the zero line on MACD.
Now chances are that the price still might go down But the question is am i Willing to TRY AND SEE what happens. or let it go.
I let this one go.
Hi Nad

Well left alone - no momentum, no previous signs of resistance (just coming from the 50MA cross), maybe 5pips in it. I won't get involve there.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,594
  • Jun 27, 2008 9:42am Jun 27, 2008 9:42am
Once again - a message sent to a fellow member explaining the church formation (if anyone else is also interested):

A. Church to right formation (only applicable for a buy signal):

1. You do get an upward to a certain level where the price runs to resistance.

2. Then there is an immediate turnaround with the start of the pullback

3. The pullback is usually three to four candles long and then support is found.

Up to here you to have formation of the bell tower of the church

4. Then you do have another four or five candles with a lateral movement on the level of support. Hopefully in the war zone.

This is the church building being formed

It is this level of support that gives the indication that the price will continue upwards.

Nowadays, I do wait for the MACD to give TC signal.

B. Reversed church formation

The same principles are applicable for the Reverse church pattern formation (only applicable for a sell signal)

It was just a price pattern that I've identified while doing back testing

C. Ellipse formation (applicable for a buy and sell signal)

1. You do get an upward to certain level where the price runs to resistance.

2. Then there is a turnaround with the start of the pullback

3. The pullback could be fast or slow, but it is in the format of a smooth rounding where support is found.

4. You should be able to draw an ellipse in the inside of the pullback meaning it is a slow kind of rounding.

I hope it makes sense, but I will post another few acts samples to day all over the meeting to explain this. You can also go to the first page and look at the links and examples posted.

Enjoy the trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: church 1.1.JPG Size: 111 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,595
  • Jun 27, 2008 9:55am Jun 27, 2008 9:55am
Then an example of a Reverse church formation. My 1st church building was the small rectangle withinh the larger one. That is why you'll see evidence of an entry of mine on the candle after after the signal bar of the 1st TC formation. I was so sure of the formation that I've ignored the 21 in the non-trade zone. The better entry was on the second TC - opening of that Doji candle.

I hope it make sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: church 2.1.JPG Size: 108 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,596
  • Jun 27, 2008 10:03am Jun 27, 2008 10:03am
Another example where I point to all the TCs - entries are on the opening of the candles just above the long arrows.

Which one is the only profitable one? Obvious.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: church 3.1.JPG Size: 101 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,597
  • Jun 27, 2008 10:18am Jun 27, 2008 10:18am
An example of the ellipse pullback. I think the philo behind it is that it is not an aggressive turnaround (concept use in Phillip's 4h MACD system) that will take the price through the 21 and 50 and your SL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elllipse 1.1.JPG Size: 95 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,598
  • Jun 27, 2008 11:21am Jun 27, 2008 11:21am
The small support lines drawn on cable as discussed on Skype
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 29 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,599
  • Jun 27, 2008 5:44pm Jun 27, 2008 5:44pm
Thank you for your reply and for sharing your personal experience. I have no experience with gambling and can't comment on that. CT and gambling are not synonymous. You can trade any system available to you, including Phillips system and still be a gambler. The whole difference between a gambler and a trader may lie in the different mindset and different approach they have to the market and perhaps to many other areas of life too. If it is true that 95% of all those who trade forex are loosers, it wouldn't surprise me if most of them are gamblers rather than traders. I have nothing to prove to my fellow traders, nor to the market, nor to my broker. Trading is a business not a game for me. The difference between being right and being wrong is a very simple one, if you are right you are in the business and if you are wrong you are out of business. Exibitionism is not my business, nor do I trade peanuts. It is all about making pips, if you are right you make pips and if not you better change business. You say: "my mission is to just line up edges and take action on situations where i see the odds are in my favor and let the result happen." I give you a tip, it may help you in finding the best odds. Take a system that you believe works for you and trade against it, if your system says buy, you sell and if it says sell you buy. If at the end of the day or week, you have made a good profit you can bin that system, but if you lost your money than there is a good possibility that you are up to something that really works. Counter Trader Anymous is a good idea, you know if you trade stocks, you have a name and a share in a business, but here in forex your money may go straight from your wallet to mine in a flash and in a very anonymous fashion. There is no easy money to be made in forex, money stinks but everybody wants to smell it! Hope to see you again here next week.

Quoting scottyd14
On the spot i am a newbie and deal with the same attraction. I have isolated why I find them attractive. A winning " counter trade " to me signal I am " more right" or smarter then the average bear. The desire to be "right"is very strong from years of conditioning. I am slowly accepting the fact that no one especially the market cares if i am wrong or right.
So accepting that being right or the need to be right has not +EV ( expected value) is the mind set i MUST adapt in order to be a successful trader.
You may want to give that notion some thought.
Historically i gambled a lot sport cards casino ..... and one friend asked me why i love to gamble and my answer was simple
i love being right and gambling pays those who are "right"

So now my mission is to just line up edges and take action on situations where i see the odds are in my favor and let the result happen....
I am thinking of starting Counter Trader Anonymous
have a day On the spot
  • #4,600
  • Jun 27, 2008 6:24pm Jun 27, 2008 6:24pm
Hi Golfer

I'm glad to hear those words from you and I thank you for not descriminating a fellow trader that doesn't "talk your language". I have taken from Phillip the basic tools for trading this system, the sma and the two ema's and I have added some personal tools, just as you have added yours and everybody is free to add what he wants. I know that the spirit of this system is to trade with the trend and not against it, and I follow this concept to some extent BUT I also integrate Ct in my diet. If I get an indigestion I will know that it's not working for me otherwise it may become part of a balanced and profitable trading style. Prejudice follows ignorance, no matter how often something has been tested. It was unbelievable that man could walk on the moon till someone actually achieved it. If I am succesfull I'll not be the first one and if I'm not succefull I'll be in good company. I'm a Christian and I do not believe in luck, if something works, it's because there is a logical and rational truth behind it. Phillips system is a good one and therefore it creates competion because everybody wants to perfect it, to make it as profitable as possible, this is a good sign and keeps this system alive. At the end of the day what matters is what comes in the pocket. A system may be bizzarre and ridiculous, I don't care, if it works I welcome it! Have a nice weekend.

Quoting Golfer
You'll never hear my say that I am right and you are wrong. In my opinion there is no such thing than rigth or wrong in forex trading. It is all about personal style and personal rules. Rules - if it works for you and if you trade against your rules, then it is wrong. If I trade against my rules which is currently working for me, then it is wrong.

All I am saying is that CT trading is not me - just giving you my opinion and experience. I am sure there are many people trading the CT very successful.

Hopefully you can master the CT trading.
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