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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #4,141
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:05pm Jun 26, 2008 8:05pm
Good night and good luck everyone its time for me to get some sleep. Ive traded the past few days and I need sleep tonight so good luck trading.
  • #4,142
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:11pm Jun 26, 2008 8:11pm
Quoting Shermenator
Thanks ....Thanks for the new tool...can you explain to me what made you take this trade short and what makes you believe those swings of support wont push it up..?

Whats your thinking procces before taking the trade what convinced you price would come down...?
Its just a gamble, small lot size (counter trend). I took this one because it stalled here at the Pivot of 1.9878 from the 2.0396 high to 1.9361 low. same reasons as I gave for your previous post theres room for retracement but its counter trend and Im in a good spot BE at 1.9880 so i havnt lost anything regardless other than time. I dont see them as swings, its all the single Intraday move.Thats why I was saying pull the low of your swing forward of the high to the lows being made now thats your swing fib developing now.
  • #4,143
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:15pm Jun 26, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting Shermenator
Lets say price closes in this formation would that be a sign that price has found support....and how do you decide to hold your short or not. Or do you put the odds in your head and that is that price should make a better retracement....And you hold as long as your swing does as well?

Attachment
Somebody here have made stats as too how often price will retrace to the 38.2 and it was a pretty high figure.. Please Bo help me i can`t remember the username neither the name of his thread.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,144
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:26pm Jun 26, 2008 8:26pm
Quoting Bobokus
There are alot of experts out there, and very few of them actually say the same things.
In this choppy market i think you may be trading on both side from median level and with enough patience be successful anyhow. I heard some grid traders beeing very successfull.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,145
  • Jun 26, 2008 11:22pm Jun 26, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting Bobokus
Here is another tool for your trading toolbox. Place a horizontal line at the open price each day. If it moves in one direction then reverses and crosses the open price in the opposite direction you can usually get a decent trade from it. Ranging days can be dangerous, but its something to add to your arsenal. Backtest it and see if can help you. If not dont use it.
somthing like "trade the inner day"
regard
I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #4,146
  • Edited 2:25am Jun 27, 2008 12:22am | Edited 2:25am
1 more for the end of week
i am trying to attach a chart but i cant can someone explain?

ane ways w8ing for the price to enter bobo's magic Box (GBP/USD)

the chart is 2.25mega and the limit is 1mega :'(
  • #4,147
  • Edited 2:11am Jun 27, 2008 12:48am | Edited 2:11am
Quoting Bobokus
There are alot of experts out there, and very few of them actually say the same things.
And whats great is that they can be both right.... and both wrong
  • #4,148
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:56am Jun 27, 2008 3:56am
Last night i took the short on the gbp/usd and woke up to have my target hit it at price 9833 since i whent for t2 for the target of the swing since i was going to be sleeping and did not whant to be exact to the intraday long...

35 pips total.....

The reason i did not take the brake of the high was for today was for the reason that price is very near the end of a bigger cycle and i had decided to myself the unless I got in at a good price in the inner levels i would not be taking the brake of high since i believed their was a good chance of me getting cought at top...

This swing fibb i have drawn in the 4 hour chart is the one the i felt could get respected and i was not willing to take the brake of the high after making the pips on the retracement.Plus we do in fact have the downtrend pivot and the brake of the high can simply be a wick in the larger timeframe....

This is the swing why i did not take the brake of the high since i felt it was a low probability trade (light red fib) Also if you pull the swing low to the next low above the targets would be closer thats why i highlighted that area as risky...

Attached Image
  • #4,149
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:58am Jun 27, 2008 3:58am
Quote
Somebody here have made stats as too how often price will retrace to the 38.2 and it was a pretty high figure.. Please Bo help me i can`t remember the username neither the name of his thread.
Perhaps the thread was by good things and called Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action :

"In the past 8 years consisting of 410, 5 day trading weeks
GBP USD has retraced to

61.8% : 254 times, for a 62% probability retracement to this level WITH respect to Bullish/Bearish movement during the same week or the following week

50% : 292 times, for a 71% probability

38.2% : 335 times, for an 82% probability

23.6 : 378 times, for a 92% probability

For only 32 weeks out of 410 weeks has GBP USD not retraced to any fib level during the same or following week and simply continued trending towards an extension for an 8% probability OR just traded in a very narrow range not going up or down..

Probability ONLY means that an event is likely to occur, it does not necessarily mean that if there is a 92% probability of something happening then then it's sure as hell gonna happen as opposed to an event with 8% probability, but that is the most likely event based on past data."
  • #4,150
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:07am Jun 27, 2008 4:07am
As for eur/ usd i missed the retracement since it was an early movement but i also did not take the brake of the high since it was in the same scenerio as the gbp/usd and it did not make the pullback deep enough into the inner levels.

Attached Image
  • #4,151
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:08am Jun 27, 2008 4:08am
Here is the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: boom.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #4,152
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:15am Jun 27, 2008 4:15am
Quoting ezz
Here is the chart
Price has rejeted th high forming a triple top at a dowtrened pivot plus the end to a larger movement has occurred near the high that makes our levels a bitt weaker . Also if price does begin to come back to the intraday levels price would be stair stepping down and reversing bullish swings after rejecting being above the Intraday high. That would make longs scalping trades even if we have a bullish bias day since price would have to prove that it whant to hold as true support first. Last remeber its friday not much movement.Hope it helps and good luck trading.
  • #4,153
  • Jun 27, 2008 6:47am Jun 27, 2008 6:47am
Quoting maltman
Perhaps the thread was by good things and called Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action :

"In the past 8 years consisting of 410, 5 day trading weeks
GBP USD has retraced to

61.8% : 254 times, for a 62% probability retracement to this level WITH respect to Bullish/Bearish movement during the same week or the following week

50% : 292 times, for a 71% probability

38.2% : 335 times, for an 82% probability

23.6 : 378 times, for a 92% probability

For only 32 weeks out of 410 weeks has GBP USD not retraced to any fib level during the same or following week and simply continued trending towards an extension for an 8% probability OR just traded in a very narrow range not going up or down..

Probability ONLY means that an event is likely to occur, it does not necessarily mean that if there is a 92% probability of something happening then then it's sure as hell gonna happen as opposed to an event with 8% probability, but that is the most likely event based on past data."

Good post, thanks for that info.
  • #4,154
  • Jun 27, 2008 11:38am Jun 27, 2008 11:38am
Quoting Bobokus
Here is another tool for your trading toolbox. Place a horizontal line at the open price each day. If it moves in one direction then reverses and crosses the open price in the opposite direction you can usually get a decent trade from it. Ranging days can be dangerous, but its something to add to your arsenal. Backtest it and see if can help you. If not dont use it.
Here is an indicator that will draw the line for the daily open. Mine is set for the London open, but I believe the default is what you'll want to place Bobokus' fib sets on the hourly. I find it helpful, particularly for back testing. You might as well.

Regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 daily_open_line.mq4   2 KB | 898 downloads
  • #4,155
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:41pm Jun 27, 2008 3:41pm
lets share discretion ideas for the week end
Well lemme start it
1-buy in up trends and sell in down trends
I.e in this method trade long(when price breaks 61.8) only if todays open price is higher than yesterdays open price.
And the opposite for sell
Well thats my 2cents UR TURN!
  • #4,156
  • Jun 27, 2008 6:14pm Jun 27, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting maltman
Perhaps the thread was by good things and called Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action :

"In the past 8 years consisting of 410, 5 day trading weeks
GBP USD has retraced to

61.8% : 254 times, for a 62% probability retracement to this level WITH respect to Bullish/Bearish movement during the same week or the following week

50% : 292 times, for a 71% probability

38.2% : 335 times, for an 82% probability

23.6 : 378 times, for a 92% probability

For only 32 weeks out of 410 weeks has GBP USD not retraced to any fib level during the same or following week and simply continued trending towards an extension for an 8% probability OR just traded in a very narrow range not going up or down..

Probability ONLY means that an event is likely to occur, it does not necessarily mean that if there is a 92% probability of something happening then then it's sure as hell gonna happen as opposed to an event with 8% probability, but that is the most likely event based on past data."
Thank you brother that exactly that! (i need those memory pills!).. 38.2% : 335 times, for an 82% probability.. 82% is about also the probability you gonna have a 38.2 retracement after a big candle day. Those stats talks by them self. That on a weekly swing but the same probabilities to be expected out of daily swing.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,157
  • Jun 27, 2008 6:27pm Jun 27, 2008 6:27pm
By the way. I`m usually shy on this but i just have my most satisfying trading day to date.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,158
  • Jun 28, 2008 10:17pm Jun 28, 2008 10:17pm
Its exercise time again, this time Im going to throw a wrinkle at you, this is an exercise in the use of price channels, Linear Regression channels. At first go through and do this with nothing on the chart but the channel itself so you can see how to apply it and what it is showing you with price movement and direction. It comes in very handy when looking for reversals and breakouts. You can later go back and do the same exercise with the Intraday fib and see how they can compliment each other and may help your trading decisions by trading with the trending movements. If you find it is of no help to you I dont recommend using it if it does then so much the better.
I begin the exercise by applying it from the first of the year through about mid February and show how to apply it and move and why you move it. Sorry it coudlnt be any more but its at the limit of PDF file size as is but I feel everyone will figure it our from what is included.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Linear Regression Channel.pdf   1.9 MB | 20,355 downloads
  • #4,159
  • Edited 2:21am Jun 29, 2008 1:57am | Edited 2:21am
oo nice tool indeed so ur saying that the breakout of the magic box should be confirmed with the break of the LRC

magic box=intraday enter point lvls (they do look like a box)
  • #4,160
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:04am Jun 29, 2008 6:04am
Quoting ezz
oo nice tool indeed so ur saying that the breakout of the magic box should be confirmed with the break of the LRC

magic box=intraday enter point lvls (they do look like a box)

You want to trade with the fib levels in the same manner, the price channel just gives you a visual aid in the pairs direction and confirms your trades when you see the channel broken from as well, since it will indicate a directional change or break from the current trending patterns. A break of the channel is the same as with a fib level...a candle opening outside of it.
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