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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #4,121
  • Jun 26, 2008 5:34pm Jun 26, 2008 5:34pm
Quoting Shermenator
EUR/USD keep in mind that acouple of pips above bigger swing concludes and this is at price 5783...Today I will not be taken the break of the high due to that fact unless we get a bounce of my inner levels of my intraday swing(light blue fibb)...I will be playing the reracement back to my intraday levels if my 61.8 fibb from my swing fibb brakes (orange fibb)

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Looks good, you just dont need the swing yet and your trendline is very steep.
  • #4,122
  • Jun 26, 2008 5:52pm Jun 26, 2008 5:52pm
Hi Bobokus,

I am trying to figure out what caused the large moves this morning around 7 to 8 am Eastern.

Lou
  • #4,123
  • Jun 26, 2008 6:21pm Jun 26, 2008 6:21pm
Quoting Lou
Hi Bobokus,

I am trying to figure out what caused the large moves this morning around 7 to 8 am Eastern.

Lou
Im guessing because most of the rumors of the US raising rates were put to rest until December now. So it looks like the dollar will be loosing ground again. May be the flight from dollars to oil and gold again...Oil may get crazy now unless something can be done to slow down the onslaught buying of oil which i doubt will happen and in turn fuel prices are going to step up to another plane and make things even worse.
  • #4,124
  • Jun 26, 2008 7:42pm Jun 26, 2008 7:42pm
It sure is impressive to watch your techniques in action some days, Bobokus.

Thank you.
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  • #4,125
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:07pm Jun 26, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting sundowner
It sure is impressive to watch your techniques in action some days, Bobokus.

Thank you.

Thank you kind sir.
  • #4,126
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:18pm Jun 26, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting Shermenator
Bo how did you trade it last night. I used my swing fibb to hold my trade i knew i could have held it as long as my intraday levels held. How do you make decision of weather to hold your trade to the swing or to the intraday.


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Now this is an example of june 23/24 trading.....If you see price rejeted the intraday short and a short could have been taken at this point.
Lets say you did and you start to fallow price with a swing fibb (red one i have) then price broke it as resistance and that day i took a long...
Would you held your short from the intraday short as long as your intraday long holds or would you reverse your short at this point when my swing fibb broke as resistance....

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Can you explaing to me what was the difference to you in trading between todays trading and monday.....
Simple, if you would have shorted from the Intraday levels you know that if price breaks your swings high thats a bad sign for your short, the other bad sign is a little earlier, the previous candles highs begin to break in a consecutive pattern. Its best to accept the loss instead of trying to ride it out through the Intraday levels and hope they hold, then reset your position once you see the price action that developes later. Alot of it has to do with how deep are your pockets and how much can you let a trade run against you before you bail (are your lot sizes too big). No perfect answer for this as the market reverses during this period and you have to take the good with the bad sometimes..playing out the rest of the day any loss from the initial short is more than made up for in the consecutive trades that follow. Had the next few trades not developed and the pair ran sideways until the news later in the week you got out of it with a very minor loss.
  • #4,127
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:38pm Jun 26, 2008 8:38pm
Quoting Lou
Hi Bobokus,

I am trying to figure out what caused the large moves this morning around 7 to 8 am Eastern.

Lou
Yep, read this just a few minutes ago

SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The U.S. dollar was trading slightly firmer on Friday after falling overnight in a flight to safety as soaring oil prices and more concerns over the health of the U.S. financial sector sent Wall Street into a tailspin.

Safe-haven buying of the yen and Swiss franc is keeping the dollar under pressure along with a

growing view that the Federal Reserve is not going to move to hike interest rates any time soon.
  • #4,128
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:40pm Jun 26, 2008 8:40pm
The market is dominated by Sharks and Bernanke put some blood in the water. Most likely seeing some positioning from big money banking on this.
  • #4,129
  • Edited 9:09pm Jun 26, 2008 8:48pm | Edited 9:09pm
I have taken a short on the break of my swing fibb since I am expecting a retracement to my intraday levels or something of such....This trade is treated like a scalp and will guard my pips...The other reason i took it was because downtrend pivot.
Bo let me know what you think...

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  • #4,130
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:16pm Jun 26, 2008 9:16pm
Quoting Shermenator
I have taken a short on the break of my swing fibb since I am expecting a retracement to my intraday levels or something of such....This trade is treated like a scalp and will guard my pips...The other reason i took it was because downtrend pivot.
Bo let me know what you think...

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Its not a bad choice considering the long move its made and you have room back to the Intraday levels.Just watch price action since it may not retrace to the levels.
  • #4,131
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:22pm Jun 26, 2008 9:22pm
I`m in there for a short to 9831 too, Then will look for a bounce from 9824 for a fresh long... I have my alarms level set to mail me i don`t want to miss that one.. I missed yesterday long trade wich was textbook as bo would have said. The important is that we see how powerfull the method is.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,132
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:26pm Jun 26, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting GreatYves
I`m in there for a short to 9831 too, Then will look for a bounce from 9824 for a fresh long... I have my alarms level set to mail me i don`t want to miss that one.. I missed yesterday long trade wich was textbook as bo would have said. The important is that we see how powerfull the method is.

Same... shorted 1.9880, just in a strong move like today sometimes it will not retrace far and price action will have to detirmine the stop and reverse point. Being the asian session makes it difficult with out any real momentum but it can be a good scalp sometimes. Swing fib can help in these type trades.
  • #4,133
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:30pm Jun 26, 2008 9:30pm
I have now pull my swing fib down to the next support and will see how price holds here....Also the other thing i like of the short here is the double top we had at the intraday high...Also i will fallow my trade with my swing fibb from the intraday high down to the place price is at...I will hold my short as long as the counter fib to the intraday holds my trade short...



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  • #4,134
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:31pm Jun 26, 2008 9:31pm
Here ya go this may help..Basic S&R levels

CABLE TECHS: Further gains to $1.9900/10 likely
RES 3 $2.0029 21 April high
RES 2 $1.9965 28 April high
RES 1 $1.9895 26 June high
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.9873
SUP 1 $1.9792 20 June low
SUP 2 $1.9770 25 June high
SUP 3 $1.9715 26 June low
COMMENTARY: Yesterday's breach of $1.9852 confirms rise from $1.9361 has
resumed, stronger correction of decline from $2.0399 (March 14) underway
for further gains to $1.9900/10 (equality proj. of $1.9361-1.9852 from
$1.9409), then possibly $1.9965. But overbought conditions should limit
upside, $2.0029 to remain intact.
  • #4,135
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:33pm Jun 26, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting Shermenator
I have now pull my swing fib down to the next support and will see how price holds here....Also the other thing i like of the short here is the double top we had at the intraday high...Also i will fallow my trade with my swing fibb from the intraday high down to the place price is at...I will hold my short as long as the counter fib to the intraday holds my trade short...



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Move the low of your swing to the current candles low and just keep pulling it as new lows are made, leave the high of it where it is ,this move now is the counter to the Intraday once it stops making lows youll have its resistance levels set then.
  • #4,136
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:44pm Jun 26, 2008 9:44pm
Lets say price closes in this formation would that be a sign that price has found support....and how do you decide to hold your short or not. Or do you put the odds in your head and that is that price should make a better retracement....And you hold as long as your swing does as well?

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  • #4,137
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:45pm Jun 26, 2008 9:45pm
My broker, Oanda, offer a free FxNews service from ifr market with trade recommendation for every pair, i hate it because they often make me change my mind and often they are right. They recommend to buy a bounce from 9765, they now see a retest of 2.0025 as possible target. But yesterday they were still bearish.

I consider blinding my self from every technical or fundamental indicator in order not to interfer from this method because it is already hard enough to take good trading decision.


I will have to say adios too all those nice colorfull indicator because they are hell.

Unless someone have the best predicting tool to sugest me!
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #4,138
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:51pm Jun 26, 2008 9:51pm
Quoting Shermenator
I have now pull my swing fib down to the next support and will see how price holds here....Also the other thing i like of the short here is the double top we had at the intraday high...Also i will fallow my trade with my swing fibb from the intraday high down to the place price is at...I will hold my short as long as the counter fib to the intraday holds my trade short...



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Here is another tool for your trading toolbox. Place a horizontal line at the open price each day. If it moves in one direction then reverses and crosses the open price in the opposite direction you can usually get a decent trade from it. Ranging days can be dangerous, but its something to add to your arsenal. Backtest it and see if can help you. If not dont use it.
  • #4,139
  • Jun 26, 2008 9:56pm Jun 26, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting GreatYves
My broker, Oanda, offer a free FxNews service from ifr market with trade recommendation for every pair, i hate it because they often make me change my mind and often they are right. They recommend to buy a bounce from 9765, they now see a retest of 2.0025 as possible target. But yesterday they were still bearish.

I consider blinding my self from every technical or fundamental indicator in order not to interfer from this method because it is already hard enough to take good trading decision.


I will have to say adios too all those nice colorfull indicator because they are hell.

Unless someone have the best predicting tool to sugest me!
There are alot of experts out there, and very few of them actually say the same things.
  • #4,140
  • Jun 26, 2008 10:02pm Jun 26, 2008 10:02pm
Thanks ....Thanks for the new tool...can you explain to me what made you take this trade short and what makes you believe those swings of support wont push it up..?

Whats your thinking procces before taking the trade what convinced you price would come down...?
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