it broke 9550 and retraced back. It'll stick around till news.............then perhaps 9443
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Agreed (somewhat).
With USD negative news, 9550-9555 should provide the launch pad to some yet to be determined TP. Musicman likes 9700 (coupled with a possible BOE hike).
I think we'll see a small move of 15-30 pips from the news which would take us to 9585-9600, then a retracement back to 9550ish. Cable's already had its 100 pip move for the day and today seems essentially quiet. Probably range bound, 9540 - 9610, at least until the closes (Fran/Lon).
So with that said, depending on your personal risk tolerance I'd be long through the news. If you're risk averse, I'd remain on the sidelines until after the news then trade the retracement. Then I'd trade the range, buying dips and selling tips.
[quote=musicman007;207798]Yeh, I had a 78.6 fibo based on the daily 31/1 to 02/02 at 9535 which it seemed to bounce off. 38.2% would be 9585 which is more realistic.
Interestingly enough a 50% retrace of todays drop would take us to 9600 exactly. /quote]
That's the ticket. Then expect cable to reverse back to 9550s and range thereafter. So scalpers should have a great day today!!!
Sometimes ya just gotta talk to these things...forget TA!! Doggone I bailed too soon at 9555. That's one difference between trading news and daytrading based on TA... takes a lot longer and requires more patience than news.
So far the fall has stopped at the 78.6% retrace of last week's range...also this is on a nice trend-line up from the low on October 15th.
The ISM data at 10:00est will help clarify if this support is going to hold.
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My TL starts at Jan 8th; just took it back in time and it approximates yours based on October 15th. It's been penetrated a couple of times but overall it seems valid.
I wouldn't rule out anything in forex!!! :surprised
But I'm sticking to my launchpad post of 9550-9560, long to 9585ish, perhaps 9590, then returning, recycling, ranging, retracing, rebounding, in a 40-50 pip range most of today.
Interestingly enough I have a strong channel developed on the 5m chart and we keep pinging off the top line, just done it again.
It is a downward trend though so we need to break out of this.
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Yeah, I think direction changed like three times, the first change in 30 minutes, then 20 minutes, then 10.
Launching soon...but I don't expect a huge move from the news. Personally, I'm straddling this announcement, looking for 15 pips but trading multiple lots.
I think (operative word is think, meaning the same as "guess") cable will go long on the news, so if you truly have no fear regarding risk, enter a buy order at 9:59 est or 02:59 gmt, grab your 15-20 pips, then fade it.
Whatever you do, it's ultimately your responsibility for winning now or gaining knowledge now for winning at a later date.
MoneyMaster - so the ISM Non Manufacturing is not a big mover?
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Good to hear from you Mama,
Last month (January) ISM nonmanuf moved like 15 pips long then 30-40 pips on retracement. Probably tempered by factory orders announced at the same time.
In November, it moved 55 pips short on the spike.
If today's news is better than expected, then sure it will be a big mover. Last week's ISM manufacturing moved but today I'm on the side of 15-20 pips and multiple lots.
Well how about that I just woke up and see that I made the correct call. You'll see that on page 365 I mentioned that the daily chart evidenced little to no momentum to the upside with emas crossing on the 1hr and 4hr charts and not bad for today as we pulled in 75 pips! SWEET!
If you can't produce some results and make some serious PIPS, YOU'RE FIRED!
