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  • #701
  • Jun 20, 2008 2:54pm Jun 20, 2008 2:54pm
For everyone really, what are your feelings towards keeping a position open over the weekend, especially after a day when options expire?
  • #702
  • Edited 5:07pm Jun 20, 2008 3:34pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting finswin56
For everyone really, what are your feelings towards keeping a position open over the weekend, especially after a day when options expire?
Case by case really. I have left them open over the weekend plenty of times....it just depends on how in the money I am usually and what I am expecting out of the next week's session based on any number of different factors. Best thing to do is just use your discretion and experience and be honest about possibilities about what could happen against you. Never hurts to protect a little profit either. In terms of option ex, once the move is made for the day its usually over/finito, etc....you can look at past dates and see what has generally happened. Heres the calendar: http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2008.pdf In terms of what to expect for next week I'm looking for a little (50-150 on majors on top of daily highs/lows) or no more push anti-dollar before the onslaught continues. Lot of USD bulls out there these past couple of days lining up in general, but that of course could change.
  • #703
  • Jun 20, 2008 4:02pm Jun 20, 2008 4:02pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah did you know you cant bring in livestock in your luggage? I had no idea .

Too bad you can't recreate this typical Bajan dish now, since you had to give away that flying fish .
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #704
  • Jun 20, 2008 4:20pm Jun 20, 2008 4:20pm
Ok, this actually goes hand in hand what finswin52 asked 2 posts above and what Billy Ray said about keeping positions open over the weekend.

I'd do it only if I'd be pretty sure on the direction.

On the EURUSD a pin bar formed on the 4H chart that coincides with an S/R level AND a 61.8 level if you draw it from the last wave down to the bottom.
So I am saying that the USD bulls will have their way in the coming week at least to a certain extent and that's why I'm putting my money on a EURUSD short with a target at 1.5525, because that level is an S/R area coinciding with a 38.2 fib level of that same fibo. That's about 90 pip profit target if trade is taken now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4h.gif Size: 38 KB
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #705
  • Jun 20, 2008 4:34pm Jun 20, 2008 4:34pm
This one looks pretty clear to me too and again it's a USD bullish take.
So I'll short this one as well, actually this one is even clearer and the signal more reliable than the EURUSD since we have a pin bar coinciding with a S/R level on a daily TF AND the the top of the pin coincides with a .50 fib level from last wave down.

My take is that it will retest, if not even break, the S/R level in the .7460 area, that's why I'm placing my TP at a a cautious .7485, provided my assumption is correct.

It will take a couple of days for this trade to unfold may be middle of next week or possibly even beginning of the week after, those things are sometimes hard to predict but if you look at the chart you can see that lately this pair fell quicker and further than it rose.
But pretty sure it's gonna go there and would provide some 130 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd daily.gif Size: 33 KB
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #706
  • Jun 20, 2008 4:45pm Jun 20, 2008 4:45pm
It's just a rotten shame that I haven't shorted this pair at 168.00, but still did it at 167.50 because another daily pin at major S/R level tells me that there's a good chance for this pair to finally drop. Also I use MACD (12,26,9) and look out for divergences sometimes, in this case you can see a moderate divergence on the daily TF and a very strong triple top divergence on the 4H, all this taken together makes me go for a short on this one with a TP at about 165.60 area at best, which is still a 180 pip target from now.

All the S/Ls from the trades in the last 3 post are just above the resepective pins I cited.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy daily.gif Size: 33 KB
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #707
  • Jun 23, 2008 11:14am Jun 23, 2008 11:14am
the thread today is quiet,any way the dollar was strong today,really strong,made some good pips,still watching for a reaction on the usd/[email protected], that would be a good short,after a long rally
  • #708
  • Jun 24, 2008 12:54am Jun 24, 2008 12:54am
Quoting pastork
the thread today is quiet,any way the dollar was strong today,really strong,made some good pips,still watching for a reaction on the usd/[email protected], that would be a good short,after a long rally
Hi Pastork, anything up to that 20 level is a pretty precarious spot. I wouldn't personally be ready just yet to hop all over a short though as I wouldnt be surprised to see another strong move upward this week in general.

I have been working on a website to get these ideas down in a little better format over the past few days.

If I have time to post anything coming up I certainly will.
  • #709
  • Jun 24, 2008 1:46pm Jun 24, 2008 1:46pm
Those were some nice calls Mary. EUR/JPY jerked around, but looks like there was a lot of pips in those trades.

Looking forward to the site BRV!
  • #710
  • Edited 5:24am Jun 25, 2008 5:04am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting finswin56
Those were some nice calls Mary. EUR/JPY jerked around, but looks like there was a lot of pips in those trades.

Looking forward to the site BRV!

Thanks finswin56, I got them at least right direction wise, which is a good start

The EUSUSD trade worked out nicely got even more than the 90 pips I aimed for by re-entering after a mini bounce.

I got out with a few pips in the green on EJ trade but it jerked about too much for my liking and pulled the plug on that one early into the London session. Currently have a short order at 168.90, historic high and part of sort of double top that iron-man already mentioned earlier in the thread.
It does coincide more or less with a channel top, so all in all that one should be a as "No Brainer" trade as they come should it get up there.
Shouldn't be saying this because anything is possible in forex but there you go, you gotta risk it somewhere.

It looks as if the Kiwi did only a small retracer to the .50 fib level from the last wave up, actually watching this pair for signs on a further move up. Though it's not really that clear to me at present and just watching this one.

The method I applied last friday for those trades is somewhat different then Billy Ray's.
The similarity is the reliance on S/R levels, the difference is the combination with bar patterns e.g. here in this trade it was the the pin bar at S/R level.

It's a lot less sophisticated than Billy Ray's and it will carve out less pips because you enter and exit later into the moves.
Also it works better the higher the TF, 1H upwards, anything below is too random for it, hence it will give you less trade signals compared to BRV's method.
But when they do come up they are quite reliable and a nice little additional trade to take on. Though beware of volatile pairs like the GJ.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 24 KB
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #711
  • Jun 25, 2008 9:43am Jun 25, 2008 9:43am
There hasn't been alot of set-ups this week, especially of the No Brainer variety. There has been alot of consolidation leading into this report as is to be expected. No worries. I would rather be out of a trade wishing I was in it, Than in a trade wishing I was out!

While no change of rates is the favored path, every ear is cocked to hear Benny's song of hawkish refrain. (Which is always good for rough seas.) The kind of weather that is just right to sink an overleveraged ship so manage lots accordingly. I am flat going into the statement. But beyond that I would like to post some levels that I see as no brainers when the market gets there.

Sell GBPUSD @ 1.9831-20
Buy USDCAD @ 1.0024-18
Sell EURJPY @ 168.90-80
Sell USDJPY @ 108.94-85

There you have it. Happy trading to all
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #712
  • Jun 25, 2008 11:20am Jun 25, 2008 11:20am
Quoting Iron-man
There hasn't been alot of set-ups this week, especially of the No Brainer variety. There has been alot of consolidation leading into this report as is to be expected. No worries. I would rather be out of a trade wishing I was in it, Than in a trade wishing I was out!

While no change of rates is the favored path, every ear is cocked to hear Benny's song of hawkish refrain. (Which is always good for rough seas.) The kind of weather that is just right to sink an overleveraged ship so manage lots accordingly. I am flat going into the statement. But beyond that I would like to post some levels that I see as no brainers when the market gets there.

Sell GBPUSD @ 1.9831-20
Buy USDCAD @ 1.0024-18
Sell EURJPY @ 168.90-80
Sell USDJPY @ 108.94-85

There you have it. Happy trading to all
Those definitely look like solid levels, but for some reason I don't see the USDJPY one until about 109.12 or so. Were you looking at a 1D chart or 4H?
  • #713
  • Jun 25, 2008 1:02pm Jun 25, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting finswin56
Those definitely look like solid levels, but for some reason I don't see the USDJPY one until about 109.12 or so. Were you looking at a 1D chart or 4H?
It's alittle more clear on the monthly. The exact line that I drew on my chart was 108.87 but it's always an area. Hate to miss a good trade by a pip!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #714
  • Jun 25, 2008 8:20pm Jun 25, 2008 8:20pm
did you sell eu/jpy at 168.90? hard to fond a resistant level since we are at new highs. might find resistance at round numbers 169.50 or 170.00. price has already hit the 1.618 extension level of the move from 164.96 to 158.58. at some point this will be a great short. but when?
  • #715
  • Jun 25, 2008 10:50pm Jun 25, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting c-note
did you sell eu/jpy at 168.90? hard to fond a resistant level since we are at new highs. might find resistance at round numbers 169.50 or 170.00. price has already hit the 1.618 extension level of the move from 164.96 to 158.58. at some point this will be a great short. but when?

I am short now and if it pushes up to 169.70 I will add on. If it breaks above there then I will re evaluate
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #716
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:13am Jun 26, 2008 12:13am
Quoting Iron-man
There hasn't been alot of set-ups this week, especially of the No Brainer variety. There has been alot of consolidation leading into this report as is to be expected. No worries. I would rather be out of a trade wishing I was in it, Than in a trade wishing I was out!

While no change of rates is the favored path, every ear is cocked to hear Benny's song of hawkish refrain. (Which is always good for rough seas.) The kind of weather that is just right to sink an overleveraged ship so manage lots accordingly. I am flat going into the statement. But beyond that I would like to post some levels that I see as no brainers when the market gets there.

Sell GBPUSD @ 1.9831-20
Buy USDCAD @ 1.0024-18
Sell EURJPY @ 168.90-80
Sell USDJPY @ 108.94-85

There you have it. Happy trading to all
Thanks Ironman! I have been a little quiet in here these last couple of weeks due to the vacation and the other obligations, but thanks everybody for keeping this going.

I sent this out to some others earlier, but though I would post it here. Re: EUR/JPY: that area around 169.70 is definitely a good place to be looking at next. The next strongest hold to the upside (even though its a ways away) is the 171.00 to 171.20 area, preferrably closest to the topside, where the strongest resistance is.

EUR/USD, I see buying pressure into the 1.5700's, but after that it fades away dramatically. So into the 1.5700's I'm generally looking for shorts and a move then downwards back to 1.5500 area, ex any news. I don't see 1.5800 as a reasonable price target for longs in the next few days, but that again of course could change due to any number of factors.
In the 1.5700's we have the following as potential short areas:
1.5700 itself, 1.5734 and 1.5765 and 1.5792,5800 ish. Of those 3, 1.5734 looking the strongest historically, with 1.5765 proposing a decent outcome.

USD/JPY is looking great sentiment to the downside right now, how far will depend on the volume and interest for shorts. There is a big line of resistance at 106.35, and of course the weekly low at 107.12, though going long there would only be a scalp for me, 106.35 being more pips, then 105.60.

With a pair like EUR/JPY, it has the ability to influence the other pairs dramatically. EUR volume will be more than JPY for the time being, possibly seeing another push into the areas described above before a downfall, but with sentiment factors lining up as they are, it would mean an overall near-term decline in EUR/JPY, provided its technical levels pan out as well.

AUD is one more I'm watching closely; the high at .9650 is going to see some action again, but I dont think it is going to live long. The quick recovery from the spike down indicates the long term trend is still very much intact. I wouldnt be surprised to see a break of these highs as far as 0.9750 anytime soon. In the range it is now, I'm overall looking for longs on pullbacks.

Looking for some no brainers. Let you guys know.
  • #717
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:50am Jun 26, 2008 2:50am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Thanks Ironman! I have been a little quiet in here these last couple of weeks due to the vacation and the other obligations, but thanks everybody for keeping this going.

I sent this out to some others earlier, but though I would post it here. Re: EUR/JPY: that area around 169.70 is definitely a good place to be looking at next. The next strongest hold to the upside (even though its a ways away) is the 171.00 to 171.20 area, preferrably closest to the topside, where the strongest resistance is.

EUR/USD, I see buying pressure into the 1.5700's, but after that it fades away dramatically. So into the 1.5700's I'm generally looking for shorts and a move then downwards back to 1.5500 area, ex any news. I don't see 1.5800 as a reasonable price target for longs in the next few days, but that again of course could change due to any number of factors.
In the 1.5700's we have the following as potential short areas:
1.5700 itself, 1.5734 and 1.5765 and 1.5792,5800 ish. Of those 3, 1.5734 looking the strongest historically, with 1.5765 proposing a decent outcome.

USD/JPY is looking great sentiment to the downside right now, how far will depend on the volume and interest for shorts. There is a big line of resistance at 106.35, and of course the weekly low at 107.12, though going long there would only be a scalp for me, 106.35 being more pips, then 105.60.

With a pair like EUR/JPY, it has the ability to influence the other pairs dramatically. EUR volume will be more than JPY for the time being, possibly seeing another push into the areas described above before a downfall, but with sentiment factors lining up as they are, it would mean an overall near-term decline in EUR/JPY, provided its technical levels pan out as well.

AUD is one more I'm watching closely; the high at .9650 is going to see some action again, but I dont think it is going to live long. The quick recovery from the spike down indicates the long term trend is still very much intact. I wouldnt be surprised to see a break of these highs as far as 0.9750 anytime soon. In the range it is now, I'm overall looking for longs on pullbacks.

Looking for some no brainers. Let you guys know.
Just an update - good support at 1.5621-15 on EUR for longs, then 1.5578 area. JPY just facing minor USD correlation but overall consolidated with bearish stength pattern.
  • #718
  • Edited 4:25am Jun 26, 2008 4:05am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Just an update - good support at 1.5621-15 on EUR for longs, then 1.5578 area. JPY just facing minor USD correlation but overall consolidated with bearish stength pattern.
EUR pulling back up as planned after bouncing off the high area from 2 days ago; watching the 57's. Unfortunately didnt hit the "no brainer" support but it looks like we'll get the push.

The easy calls/safe no brainer trades in this kind of consolidated environment become very difficult to judge in general, as Ironman pointed out earlier. Sentiment tools pay off big in times like these. EUR levels previously mentioned should be good retracement points, but I'm looking for the top on this before a decline. My opinion on the levels is still the same. I keep the book open in case of an unexpected push. I would be willing to sell at these levels and use a tight stop at breakeven without taking partial to catch the top on these things; +200 or more pip ride is worth the effort. Putting on only a partial position and scaling into the rest in the event of a move higher isn't a bad idea either. That way drawdown becomes limited and you can recover when price pulls back from a higher level.

Just be cautious not to sell into TOO much buying pressure.....make sure your conviction level for a decline is above average. Ive been looking at option chains a lot lately, and they have been treating me like gold in terms of what to expect for the market direction of the day. Basic ETF and Futures option chains are listed a few posts back for American and European styles. I'm looking at put/call ratios and heavy concentration around particular strike levels; eg on EUR tonight 1.5700 has a lot of heat. In order for the options to be in the money price needs to surpass it and thensome for premiums, and then hang out a little bit above there while people cash out. Anyone with basic knowledge of options can figure these out; pretty easy to use. Regardless, expect regular price pullbacks and retracements from the usual suspects of support and resistance levels against the sentiment/trend worth +20 to +50 pips at a time usually..............Keep you posted.
  • #719
  • Jun 26, 2008 6:45am Jun 26, 2008 6:45am
Next level for Cable at 1.9950-1.9970?
  • #720
  • Jun 26, 2008 7:21am Jun 26, 2008 7:21am
Hi All,
Having asked a couple of questions I have jumped in and made a few trades. Probably around 50/50 so some work to do to really understand and identify those 'no brainers'. I thought I was looking good for usdchf long at 10303 but this has been stopped out. Anyone else thought this was a good level?
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