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  • #21
  • Mar 8, 2006 2:41pm Mar 8, 2006 2:41pm
Well I play the simulator, and try out diffrent money managent tecniques .


I tried the following out on the euro/usd for the months march to sep 2004.
I dont use the sytem bcoz i can get better trades when i go on a few more paramters other than the set rules of the system in consideration.

This is the systm i had used .

On the 1 hr chart look for the macd histogram to either fall o r rise, i.e. the distance between the macd line and the signal line is widening. (lets take the example of going long)

Then on the 5 mint chart play on the stocastics, i.e. everytime it gets into a buy/sell config from a over bought /over sold, in our exapmle when it gets into a buy config from an over sold config , on the 5 mint chart at the same time the 1 hr macd is in buy config.

I tried the following:
Buy at 10 pips SL and target 30 pips. : result capital depletion.
buy at 20 pips SL and target 20 pips: result 60% sucess.
Buy at 50 pips SL and target 20 pips: result 83% sucess.
Buy at 20 pips SL target 60 pips: result 34% sucess.

In all i had over 100 trades .
All I am saying is that aiming for 2 -3 times the stop loss may not allways be a prutent idea. One needs to investigate probability of the trade being a success.

Yes the ideal trade setup will be profit 2-3X stop loss and win probabilty over 60%. If you have such a sytem pls let me know about it.
  • #22
  • Mar 8, 2006 2:49pm Mar 8, 2006 2:49pm
Vegas system seams okay, till now. I made 3 trades, all big success. Many people really enjoy it. Looking back on chats seamns that should work. I'm testing it more, like many others on this forum. I didn't hear anybody complaining.

It's a dailly trading, but he has system for 1h and 4h. Knife system seamn okay too, testing it also.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #23
  • Mar 8, 2006 3:08pm Mar 8, 2006 3:08pm
Quoting huskins
Well I play the simulator, and try out diffrent money managent tecniques .


I tried the following out on the euro/usd for the months march to sep 2004.
I dont use the sytem bcoz i can get better trades when i go on a few more paramters other than the set rules of the system in consideration.

This is the systm i had used .

On the 1 hr chart look for the macd histogram to either fall o r rise, i.e. the distance between the macd line and the signal line is widening. (lets take the example of going long)

Then on the 5 mint chart play on the stocastics, i.e. everytime it gets into a buy/sell config from a over bought /over sold, in our exapmle when it gets into a buy config from an over sold config , on the 5 mint chart at the same time the 1 hr macd is in buy config.

I tried the following:
Buy at 10 pips SL and target 30 pips. : result capital depletion.
buy at 20 pips SL and target 20 pips: result 60% sucess.
Buy at 50 pips SL and target 20 pips: result 83% sucess.
Buy at 20 pips SL target 60 pips: result 34% sucess.

In all i had over 100 trades .
All I am saying is that aiming for 2 -3 times the stop loss may not allways be a prutent idea. One needs to investigate probability of the trade being a success.

Yes the ideal trade setup will be profit 2-3X stop loss and win probabilty over 60%. If you have such a sytem pls let me know about it.
Well the numbers look good, but be carefull, the market valatility is to high, that's way intraday traiding on small timeframe (5m, 15m, 30m) are very risky.
The % of good traders that trade daily is much bigger that the % of good traders that do intraday.
It's path that I don't want to follow 'cause it's too dangerous. Forex market is a risky market by its self (compare with stocks, or other market), but intraday... too risky
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #24
  • Mar 8, 2006 4:20pm Mar 8, 2006 4:20pm
Quoting huskins
I disagree. This is one of the reasons why a lot of people dont get into good trades.

I would risk 50 pips for a 20 pips profit !!!!!!

Why ? Have i gone crazy??? the answer is you have to chk the probabilty of the target / stop loss being reached.

If past performace has showed that the sucess rate of such an event is 90% then i may be profitable risking
Lets say i trade 100 times

90 * 20 = 1800 pips
10 * 50 = 500 pips
Total = 1300 pips

Now if i say I tighten the stop loss however when i do that it may significantly affect my win-loose ratio.

The name of the game is not a tight stop loss. the name of the game I like to play is "Putting money into the bank"
Glad you think you have this figured out. If you want to trade for 20 points and risk 50, by all means go ahead. But in twenty years of trading I have never met anyone that could sustain the hit rate you claim nor trade that risk profile.
  • #25
  • Mar 8, 2006 5:04pm Mar 8, 2006 5:04pm
I just skipped to the end but anyway, I 100% believe most of the time people lose is because they have placed their stop way to close, I've been placing mine like 300 pips away just to gain a 30 or 50 pip profit am I crazy? I dont think so as I'm not just flipping a coin to make my decision up or down... I follow the trends the One day chart trends... Take ohhhhh AUD/USD or USD/CAD for example thy are going which way if you draw a trend line.. DOWN, they are going down and have been for at least a year!!!! a whole year... Now,,, when you see that puppy ralley (start climbing) watch it itll slow then continue its trend down this is where you want to sell and guess what I've chosen to do this several times a little to early and went negitive 100 pips or more.. but I stayed in the game knowing the trend (yes the ones thats been in motion for a whole year at least) is on my side the chance if it going down far outweighs it going on a year's worth upward trend. So I win and I do it every time without a loss... there it is thats how you win at forex, dont get stopped out, I want you to look at your past trades and look at what wold have happend if you stayed in the game I bet you could have gotten out alive or with a profit had you been following the dailey charts trends..... OK Pros this is your chance now to tell me I'm a 100% wrong and crazy but just go back and read one more time what I have written it makes sense gambling on a years worth of trend.... Mike...
***Building an EMPIRE one pip at a time***
  • #26
  • Mar 8, 2006 5:51pm Mar 8, 2006 5:51pm
Quoting Gyva
I just skipped to the end but anyway, I 100% believe most of the time people lose is because they have placed their stop way to close, I've been placing mine like 300 pips away just to gain a 30 or 50 pip profit am I crazy? I dont think so as I'm not just flipping a coin to make my decision up or down... I follow the trends the One day chart trends... Take ohhhhh AUD/USD or USD/CAD for example thy are going which way if you draw a trend line.. DOWN, they are going down and have been for at least a year!!!! a whole year... Now,,, when you see that puppy ralley (start climbing) watch it itll slow then continue its trend down this is where you want to sell and guess what I've chosen to do this several times a little to early and went negitive 100 pips or more.. but I stayed in the game knowing the trend (yes the ones thats been in motion for a whole year at least) is on my side the chance if it going down far outweighs it going on a year's worth upward trend. So I win and I do it every time without a loss... there it is thats how you win at forex, dont get stopped out, I want you to look at your past trades and look at what wold have happend if you stayed in the game I bet you could have gotten out alive or with a profit had you been following the dailey charts trends..... OK Pros this is your chance now to tell me I'm a 100% wrong and crazy but just go back and read one more time what I have written it makes sense gambling on a years worth of trend.... Mike...
Takes a lot of practice to trust your system and go 300 pips SL. If you are playing on weekly charts makes sense to me, or monthly. On daily charts... I won't do it. Maybe after a lot of experience and really good trades... maybe.
Tell me how many times you put a ST of 300pips, a TP of 50 or less?
Do you do it often? Or you just say it's possible?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #27
  • Mar 8, 2006 6:02pm Mar 8, 2006 6:02pm
Quote
Vegas system seams okay, till now. I made 3 trades, all big success. Many people really enjoy it. Looking back on chats seamns that should work. I'm testing it more, like many others on this forum. I didn't hear anybody complaining.

It's a dailly trading, but he has system for 1h and 4h. Knife system seamn okay too, testing it also.


If any system is less than 100 trades old without changing the basic charteristic of the sytem i do not cosider that to be a sucess.

Having said that I would like to investigate the knife system , pls can u paste a link to that discussion thead out here.

Let me show you how i risk 50 pips for a 20 pip profit and be sucessful.

Lets say euro is at 1.1900 and my anylysis say that it has to hit 1.2100 over say 1 month.

Now i trade buy at 1.900 SL 1.1850 target 1.1920 renter the trade at stocastics over sold on the 5 mint chart , this normally tends to be less than my exit price.
lets say reenter at 1.1910 SL at 1.1860 target 1.1930...

so on and so forth, You see i have many small trades and book profits on my journy to my targeted price, Also if i feel lets say 1.2000 is a highly resistant area i tend to make sure the price clears it well by over 20 pips , so I will be out from 1.2080 to 1.2020 on my journy to 1.2100.


I agree with Gyva, that this is a volatile market and the trick is not to be stopped out.

If you have tiught stop losses you will most deft get stopped out.

I hate to be dead right in this game. i.e. being right but being stopped out and right.
  • #28
  • Mar 8, 2006 8:59pm Mar 8, 2006 8:59pm
I think the knife forum is only for members... I may be wrong
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #29
  • Mar 12, 2006 2:49am Mar 12, 2006 2:49am
I think that difference in TP and Sl is very important. If you use too tight SL (like 10-15 pips) you can have a lot of positions closed. But if you use SL like 50 pips you can not use TP like 30-20 pips. What proportion of SL and TP do you use?
  • #30
  • Mar 12, 2006 11:24am Mar 12, 2006 11:24am
This discussion can run and run, and probably will. The fact is that if you decide on any fixed stop loss value as part of your trading system, you are setting yourself up for a percentage of failing trades - the percentage varying according to your system. When you see the framework that the currencies move by, it all makes sense. The position of the currency in the framework influences the likely retracement value, and this varies depending on that position. Decide on your risk having seen the framework, and then you can trade with what ever system you like, much more successfully.
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #31
  • Mar 12, 2006 11:40am Mar 12, 2006 11:40am
Gyva's answer is not foriegn to me. Shades of Dirk Du Toit. I have to agree with the premise but whew! It is indeed Bold. I don't know if I have the constitution for that.

<snip> Because the rest of this post could be construed as off topic and possibly worse, I moved it to a new Thread here, if anyone is interested.

Thanx
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #32
  • Mar 14, 2006 12:07am Mar 14, 2006 12:07am
Quoting huskins
I disagree. This is one of the reasons why a lot of people dont get into good trades.

I would risk 50 pips for a 20 pips profit !!!!!!

Why ? Have i gone crazy??? the answer is you have to chk the probabilty of the target / stop loss being reached.

If past performace has showed that the sucess rate of such an event is 90% then i may be profitable risking
Lets say i trade 100 times

90 * 20 = 1800 pips
10 * 50 = 500 pips
Total = 1300 pips

Now if i say I tighten the stop loss however when i do that it may significantly affect my win-loose ratio.

The name of the game is not a tight stop loss. the name of the game I like to play is "Putting money into the bank"
I agree with using stop losses, but sometimes I will not set a take profit, this eliminates my fear of losing my reward and exiting too early. Sometimes you can catch a good trend. But it can reverse and take your stop loss also. Works both ways. But at least with a stop loss you are setting the amount you are willing to give.
  • #33
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:26am Mar 13, 2007 12:26am
I've been trading a few years now, and for new people, I'd certainly not discourage them from using stop losses, especially if they're going to brave News trading or times when the market is really moving. I use to favor 15 min charts with less than 20 pip SL, but I was break even at best. When I switched to longer time frames and adjusted my leverage accordingly just kept the stops in my head, stuck with the trade plan, the consistant profits followed. So I don't use stops, and my broker can't stop hunt me like they did 3 times.
  • #34
  • Mar 13, 2007 3:03am Mar 13, 2007 3:03am
Quoting Seaducer67
I've been trading a few years now, and for new people, I'd certainly not discourage them from using stop losses, especially if they're going to brave News trading or times when the market is really moving. I use to favor 15 min charts with less than 20 pip SL, but I was break even at best. When I switched to longer time frames and adjusted my leverage accordingly just kept the stops in my head, stuck with the trade plan, the consistant profits followed. So I don't use stops, and my broker can't stop hunt me like they did 3 times.

Am in agreement with Gyva, darkstar and seducer67 here, why, because people seems to have forgotten about Position trading and everybody wants instant gratification hence Day trading on very small time frames 1 hr and less.

The smaller the time frame the higher the risk as we all know

For sure if you day trade you need to monitor your trades closely with your stoploss. But as a Position trader, which I am my trade needs lots of room to breath hence I don't use stop loss and 99% of the time I close with a profit. Each trade definitely takes time to mature between a week to a month but definetly closes with lots of pips and of course with very low risk.


Moreover I try to hedge my trades with one currency to another. And I will not OVER LEVERAGE my account which to me is the biggest problem with traders

I guess we are all different and everybody should do whatever they are confortable with, but also we should try and think outside the box sometimes.
  • #35
  • Mar 13, 2007 3:14am Mar 13, 2007 3:14am
Quoting Seaducer67
I've been trading a few years now, and for new people, I'd certainly not discourage them from using stop losses, especially if they're going to brave News trading or times when the market is really moving. I use to favor 15 min charts with less than 20 pip SL, but I was break even at best. When I switched to longer time frames and adjusted my leverage accordingly just kept the stops in my head, stuck with the trade plan, the consistant profits followed. So I don't use stops, and my broker can't stop hunt me like they did 3 times.

ABSOLUTELY AGREE!!!!!
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #36
  • Jun 25, 2008 6:55am Jun 25, 2008 6:55am
Quoting Gyva
I just skipped to the end but anyway, I 100% believe most of the time people lose is because they have placed their stop way to close, I've been placing mine like 300 pips away just to gain a 30 or 50 pip profit am I crazy? I dont think so as I'm not just flipping a coin to make my decision up or down... I follow the trends the One day chart trends... Take ohhhhh AUD/USD or USD/CAD for example thy are going which way if you draw a trend line.. DOWN, they are going down and have been for at least a year!!!! a whole year... Now,,, when you see that puppy ralley (start climbing) watch it itll slow then continue its trend down this is where you want to sell and guess what I've chosen to do this several times a little to early and went negitive 100 pips or more.. but I stayed in the game knowing the trend (yes the ones thats been in motion for a whole year at least) is on my side the chance if it going down far outweighs it going on a year's worth upward trend. So I win and I do it every time without a loss... there it is thats how you win at forex, dont get stopped out, I want you to look at your past trades and look at what wold have happend if you stayed in the game I bet you could have gotten out alive or with a profit had you been following the dailey charts trends..... OK Pros this is your chance now to tell me I'm a 100% wrong and crazy but just go back and read one more time what I have written it makes sense gambling on a years worth of trend.... Mike...
I completely agree. Sounds like you've learned what 95% of traders never will.
  • #37
  • Jun 25, 2008 6:58am Jun 25, 2008 6:58am
Quoting Gyva
I just skipped to the end but anyway, I 100% believe most of the time people lose is because they have placed their stop way to close, I've been placing mine like 300 pips away just to gain a 30 or 50 pip profit am I crazy? I dont think so as I'm not just flipping a coin to make my decision up or down... I follow the trends the One day chart trends... Take ohhhhh AUD/USD or USD/CAD for example thy are going which way if you draw a trend line.. DOWN, they are going down and have been for at least a year!!!! a whole year... Now,,, when you see that puppy ralley (start climbing) watch it itll slow then continue its trend down this is where you want to sell and guess what I've chosen to do this several times a little to early and went negitive 100 pips or more.. but I stayed in the game knowing the trend (yes the ones thats been in motion for a whole year at least) is on my side the chance if it going down far outweighs it going on a year's worth upward trend. So I win and I do it every time without a loss... there it is thats how you win at forex, dont get stopped out, I want you to look at your past trades and look at what wold have happend if you stayed in the game I bet you could have gotten out alive or with a profit had you been following the dailey charts trends..... OK Pros this is your chance now to tell me I'm a 100% wrong and crazy but just go back and read one more time what I have written it makes sense gambling on a years worth of trend.... Mike...
good luck shorting aud/usd, you meant up im sure
  • #38
  • Jun 25, 2008 7:09am Jun 25, 2008 7:09am
my very first post, and talking about stop loss. it just perfect.

well.. i just want to say trading without stop loss is like having sex without condom. it give you more fun, but in the same time give you lots of risk.

smile up guys... dont forget to put a condom oops i mean a stop loss
  • #39
  • Jun 25, 2008 7:10am Jun 25, 2008 7:10am
i don't use stop loss,
however i use hedge rarely and most of the time i stop losing trades if it is in a dangerous place.

and usually i don't stop losing trade as i am a high volume trader and use only 1% of my account in a trade.
  • #40
  • Jun 25, 2008 7:34am Jun 25, 2008 7:34am
This piece on stop hunting 101 - may help some of you understand what happens sometimes to those that use stops or place them not in the best position .... Make no doubt about it your stops are being watched if u use a broker that spikes when he has liquidity problems, and do not use a ECN ......... Be careful who u listen to. IMO
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