Dave and Chandra,
First of all, WOW
Secondly, you both bring exceptional points.
I would quote your guys' posts, but that would be a LOT of scrolling
I will begin with your Stats post megadave as your other post and chandra's are very related.
I totally could have used you in my Statistics class last semester Dave!!:
Great post, and you are obviously well informed. I'm not sure how much this means coming from a guy that barely scraped by stats, but I guess one good thing did become of it! I would be interested on hearing your stocks approach when you have a chance. Feel free to PM me! Anyway, exceptional post, and I thank you for taking the time to share all that information with us.
Alright then,
You guys have some really valid concerns. My purpose of this thread was to use it as a sound board to run ideas off of each other. When I first wrote this method it was incomplete at best. I literally on a whim, remembered the statistics rule from class last semester when looking at some bollinger band information. After sitting around for a couple of hours, I thought of the idea to use confidence intervals, and see what the price did. Luckily, I came up with something that seems to be effective. With that being said, I think the changes that have been made are minor at best.
So far we have:
Using the ATR value instead of 100 pips for S/L. I think you would both find this an agreeable change, as 100 pips for EVERY pair I mention would result in some serious mistrades.
Buying 2 lots with the trend and 1 lot against the trend. Basically, you can do whatever you want, but this is simple risk management. As I'm sure you both know, we want to be "with the trend", so therefore a smaller position against the trend is simply a recommendation.
Assuming we follow the rule above, for 2 lot trades, we exit the 1st lot at the SMA, and the second as usual. And for 1 lot trades, we just TP at the SMA. Fairly simple, and certainly not entirely changing the method.
Now, "THE BOUNCE".. I consider the bounce a risk certainly, and you have a great point Chandra. I threw the bounce out as an idea to be critiqued, and I appreciate your comments. Personally, I don't know how many "bounces" I will be acting upon..
In all honesty, 2.5 of these 4 ideas have been completely mine.. I know you both don't want to see my system "go to the dark side", but I think it is at a point ready to be forward tested with these 3 changes (Bounce is iffy), and I will keep a document recording my trades in forward tests.
Anyway,
I hope nothing in this post sounds rude, because I truly appreciate both of your time and concerns you have placed in my method.
Thanks,
and GOOD LUCK!
Kevin
First of all, WOW
Secondly, you both bring exceptional points.
I would quote your guys' posts, but that would be a LOT of scrolling
I will begin with your Stats post megadave as your other post and chandra's are very related.
QuoteDislikedSee post #78
I totally could have used you in my Statistics class last semester Dave!!:
Great post, and you are obviously well informed. I'm not sure how much this means coming from a guy that barely scraped by stats, but I guess one good thing did become of it! I would be interested on hearing your stocks approach when you have a chance. Feel free to PM me! Anyway, exceptional post, and I thank you for taking the time to share all that information with us.
QuoteDislikedSee Posts #77 and #79
You guys have some really valid concerns. My purpose of this thread was to use it as a sound board to run ideas off of each other. When I first wrote this method it was incomplete at best. I literally on a whim, remembered the statistics rule from class last semester when looking at some bollinger band information. After sitting around for a couple of hours, I thought of the idea to use confidence intervals, and see what the price did. Luckily, I came up with something that seems to be effective. With that being said, I think the changes that have been made are minor at best.
So far we have:
Using the ATR value instead of 100 pips for S/L. I think you would both find this an agreeable change, as 100 pips for EVERY pair I mention would result in some serious mistrades.
Buying 2 lots with the trend and 1 lot against the trend. Basically, you can do whatever you want, but this is simple risk management. As I'm sure you both know, we want to be "with the trend", so therefore a smaller position against the trend is simply a recommendation.
Assuming we follow the rule above, for 2 lot trades, we exit the 1st lot at the SMA, and the second as usual. And for 1 lot trades, we just TP at the SMA. Fairly simple, and certainly not entirely changing the method.
Now, "THE BOUNCE".. I consider the bounce a risk certainly, and you have a great point Chandra. I threw the bounce out as an idea to be critiqued, and I appreciate your comments. Personally, I don't know how many "bounces" I will be acting upon..
In all honesty, 2.5 of these 4 ideas have been completely mine.. I know you both don't want to see my system "go to the dark side", but I think it is at a point ready to be forward tested with these 3 changes (Bounce is iffy), and I will keep a document recording my trades in forward tests.
Anyway,
I hope nothing in this post sounds rude, because I truly appreciate both of your time and concerns you have placed in my method.
Thanks,
and GOOD LUCK!
Kevin